All Forums | College Football

Hawaii Bowl: Fresno vs SMU

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 4608
Posts: 25
 
MVP
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2003
Posts: 18138
Posted: #1
Greetings freakshows 
So far 2-0 in bowl games but plenty of time to go on a horrid run  so play safe and have fun.

Fresno TT over 36

Hmmmm. Well betting big favs in bowl games is a recipe for disaster. Many a fortune has been lost by saying "They are gonna kill them..." and watching your bet go up in smoke as the pesky underdog covers. Next thing you know you are broke and slinging hash browns at Sonic in your spare time to help pay the rent.

Here is what we see...Fresno....
- last 5 games scored 42,49,45,52,48...also scored 52,69
- QB is NFL bound 36 TD 5 INT; 1000 rusher and receiver
- 14th in offense, 19th in D, 5th in TO margin, 4th in pass D, 8th in pass eff, 11th in sks, 6th in pass eff D
- motivated (?) to get first 10 win season in over 10 yrs
- only losses; road to Boise Tulsa Oregon
- score over 40/game
- secondary has 14 picks 4 TDs

SMU
- maybe the worst team in a bowl game? Certain fans will say Notre Dame is worse. Plenty of threads on that topic.
- 93rd in offense, 64th D, 97th in sks, 90th in sks allowed, 115th in passing eff, 103rd in pass D.

Also. Winner of Hawaii bowl has scored:
24,65,45,49,41,49,59,54,36

Conclusion: Yes - Fresno could lay an egg and not be motivated but there is ZERO fundamental reason why they should in theory not destroy them. 36 pts more certain than a cover IMO

GL MEGA 
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2007
Posts: 6378
Posted: #2
Fresno's "gonna kill em."  
 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2010
Posts: 10787
Posted: #3

Quote Originally Posted by Skipster:

Fresno's "gonna kill em."  

Mega gl and Merry XMas
likewise Skipster

 

 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2012
Posts: 34171
Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by Skipster:

Fresno's "gonna kill em."  




Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
MVP
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2003
Posts: 18138
Posted: #5
Thx guys! Happy holidays.

Never pick favs over 7 in NCAA and rarely if over 3. Taking the team total helps me justify the pick to myself.

Mice. Great to see a good write up on SMU. We will know in the first 5-10 min of game time if the good or bad Fresno shows up. As long as they score 36 I'm happy.
 
MVP
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2003
Posts: 18138
Posted: #6
And should say never meaning very rarely! Lol
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2012
Posts: 34171
Posted: #7
Merry Christmas Mega,Best of Luck
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2006
Posts: 51182
Posted: #8
Best of luck Megalocks
R.I.P. Legend
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2011
Posts: 31202
Posted: #9

# bowl games have had 7 pt or better faves. Faves 2-1 in thos etilts but I agree somewhat with that statement.

My theories to success are centred around the team with the higher ranked defense ESPECIALLY when the part of their defense that is ranked higher is the other teams bread and butter.

 Great D ALWAYS WINS AND COVERS in the bowls. Watch Clemson lose by 14 to an excellent D. Great offenses(ie Clemson) have too much time off and are not ready to play when its game time. Works every yr for me.

Good Luck Bro during this BOWL MANIA

 
MVP
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2003
Posts: 18138
Posted: #10
thx guys  get that paper
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2008
Posts: 6350
Posted: #11



Let's go Darwin
 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2003
Posts: 14313
Posted: #12
MERRY CHRISTMAS 
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2012
Posts: 521
Posted: #13
Bol Mega
 
MVP
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2003
Posts: 18138
Posted: #14
guys 

FIRESIDE CHAT WITH MEGALOCKS 

For all you young sparkies out there learning the ropes, we thought it would be a good time to share some random thoughts that may or may not help you handicap the bowl games - and really - ncaa football any time of year....So grab some hooch and gather round the fire

This is gambling. Hard to believe. It's all about building a CASE for your bet and understanding what you are getting into - look at all the angles - read writeups, etc.. that support each team, determine which case you believe in. Or. Take that information and make another decision - i.e. take the over/under, first half, etc...

FACT - SMU can win/cover. Any time you get 12 pts or more in a bowl game it is a proven long term fact that you will win more than you lose. So - know going in that shittt happens in bowl games and SMU could shock the world b/c that's what underdogs do.

FACT - SMU is not very good. SMU would have a better chance playing a team that turns the ball over as they are EXCELLENT in terms of turnover margin. Well Fresno is also excellent in this regard and the QB has only thrown 5 INT all year. Hard to see him implode all of the sudden. Fresno can move it on the ground and through the air and if they get an early lead its likely blowout city.

So what? Understand the risk of taking either side - place your bet - and most importantly - PLAY SAFE. It's only one game and we don't recommend 50 unit plays. If you are wrong - who cares? There is always another day and another game. Just learn from it and move on.

Also..CONTEXT is important when discussing stats. SMU beat Nevada as a big dog in the Hawaii bowl. Well they also had a very good QB who threw for 400+ yds and Nevada's pass D was ranked 119th. SMU beat Tulsa. Fresno didnt. But we had SMU as a 3234024 STAR SMOKESHOW play b/c Tulsa was already locked in to the CUSA champ game and it meant NOTHING to them. Finally - "Fresno has only beat crappy teams and have great stats because they beat up on shittt teams". Well for the LOVE OF GOD what do you think SMU is ???????

Bottom line. THINK. QUESTION. BET SMART.  MEGA
 
MVP
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2003
Posts: 18138
Posted: #15
And be creative in your thinking. 

We think we found the best of both worlds. Can't stomach laying 12 pts....believe that Fresno will score no matter what - so play the team total.  Whatever your book offers that matches your opinion the best - go for it.

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2010
Posts: 1529
Posted: #16
THX for the Fire Side Chat Mega and GL tonight with your play.  BTW, I completely agree that you have the "best" bet of the game!!  Happy Holidays!! 
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2004
Posts: 154121
Posted: #17
Mac Wishes MEGALOCKS a very Merry Xmas to you & your family
What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion with a beeper!
 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2007
Posts: 10153
Posted: #18

Smart move.....

Probably a better chance of hitting than laying the pts....

BOL man....enjoy your fine work....

The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 8177
Posted: #19

Cheers MEGA 
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2005
Posts: 102561
Posted: #20
Fresno to blow the doors early in this one
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2009
Posts: 7493
Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by Skipster:

Fresno's "gonna kill em."  

what he said
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2011
Posts: 1222
Posted: #22
i  am with  you MEGA.....got in late so i got  37.5........lets go BULLDOGS....21 point 1st QT......14 points  2nd Qt....after that.......52- 24 Bulldogs
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2011
Posts: 1222
Posted: #23
just by what I see.......in this 1st Qt........we are in trouble ....hope the defense can score some points
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2009
Posts: 2007
Posted: #24
Wtf is going on with Fresno? They need to start scoring like crazy!
 
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2011
Posts: 1222
Posted: #25
got lucky for.......on line betting...........made back some money on under 57.5........still down......internet went down for a chance  to win more for -25.5 SMU............!
All Forums | College Football
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming
Sports Betting
US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools
The Covers community has
618,670
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2024 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.