I AM HUGE (1-0 YTD 100%) WEEK 1 PICKS AND ANALYSIS

Here are my picks for the week:

Nebraska +7.5 MINNESOTA

Stanford -4 HAWAII

TEMPLE -10.5 akron

Army -10 ULM

South Carolina +2.5 UNC

Analysis to follow....which picks do you like?  and why?

I think South Carolina is undervalued. I am also on them. 

@iamhuge

Hard to imagine Stanford is better than Vandy.....add in playing on the Island....Schager was 27/35 and looked solid....Chang crew definitely looked respectable compared to last season.....Traditionally, a team playing its second game vs a team playing its first doesn't mean much as far as win/loss goes...but with Hawaiis offense it can't help but to have worked out some kinks vs a solid opponent on the road.....Whats Stanford bring to the table?

Nebraska +7.5 Minnesota

Goodbye Frosty, hello Matt Rhule.  If the Cornhuskers can’t win with Rhule at the helm, they might as well drop down to FCS.  Rhule has won coaching at Temple and Baylor.  Both of those jobs were complete reclaimation projects.  At Nebraska, he’ll be hitting the ground running.  Talk about teams going in opposite directions.  PJ Fleck’s Gophers are a hot mess right now with all of the chatter about his ruthless coaching practices.  Talk about “row your boat”?  How about “hit me on the head with an oar”.

The Cornhuskers are going back to old school football, which is perfect for the Big 10.  They are re-installing a fullback and will huddle up between plays.  Their QB is the starter transfer from Georgie Tech, Jeff Sims, who is a dual threat guy.    He’s not named Martinez, but he’s still pretty good.  Three of their four running backs also return.  Overall, fifteen starters return (7 Offense/8 Defense) so Rhule has something to work with.

Last season, the Gophers won this contest 20-13 behind the legs of all world Mohamed Ibrahim but this year he’s gone.  Speaking of bye bye, the Gophers also need to replace experienced NFL bound Tanner Morgan.  So last year, Minnesota didn’t cover this spread with two phenomenal offensive weapons.  Their inexperienced QB, Athan Kaliakmanis, only completed 54% of his passes last year.  There are still starting jobs up for grabs, particularly on the O Line.   

This is going to be a tough game for the Gophers.  But why ask me?  This is what PJ Fleck said:  “They’re very talented, they’re big, they’re strong,” Fleck said of Nebraska. “A lot of guys have played a lot of years for him. They’re a very experienced team. And then they’ve added a lot of players from the transfer portal that have played a lot of football elsewhere. They present a lot of challenges and like I said, you know that I have a ton of respect for Matt and what he’s been able to accomplish in his career and, and he always gets the most out of his team, no matter what year it is.”

My expectation is a low scoring slug fest.  Nebraska will certainly be better than they were last year and Minnesota has a lot of question marks.  I see Nebraska doing better in this game than they did last year, which means taking the points for the cover makes sense. 

@iamhuge

 I like the Army pick!  GL!  

I agree with everything except Stanford.

Stanford might not win a game this season, Hawaii and Sacramento St are the only 2 they'll be favorite all season. That program is in shambles, 21 transferred out, with new coach.

I like the Nebraska pick!!! 

Matt Rhule is 56-34 ATS (62.2%) during his career at Temple and Baylor. 

The OL return over 100 career starts.
Huskers retain eight starters including four of their top-five tacklers. The LB unit returns the #1 tackler Luke Reimer. The secondary returns four starters including their best CB Quinton Newsome .

Minneosta OL could be a problem area as they lose their center and only return a pair of starters. Lost their field goal kicker too.

I like Hawaii playing in first home game since the fires and already one game into the year to knock off some rust and game speed/situations hard to simulate in practices. Interested in your thoughts on SC-NC, leaning UNC due to Maye and home but also like Rattler to start off well but that's just a guess on my part haha.

Stanford -4 HAWAII

First of all, for everyone that thinks that Hawaii is going to win one for the Maui Gipper, they need to take at the Rainbow Warrior roster.  Fewer than half of the kids on the team are from Hawaii.  Furthermore, only a handful of them are from Maui….all of the others are from Oahu.  Oahu is over 100 miles from Maui so it’s like saying someone from Georgia is playing for the people of South Carolina.  But never mind all that.  Hawaii already lost to Vanderbilt.  They got bad QB play from Schrager (53.8 QBR) and he threw 2 interceptions against the candy ass Vandy defense.  Furthermore, they were only able to run the ball for 40 yards….1.6 yards per carry. On Friday night, the weather is expected to have winds out of the ENE at 10 to 20 mph, which means that Hawaii will risk turning the ball over – again – if they rely on the pass.  Since they can’t run the ball, they are basically screwed.

So the crux of the analysis is simple.  Is Stanford better than Vandy?  If yes, you have to like Tree in this contest.   The Massey Composite has the Commodores rated at 83 and the Tree close behind at 95.  Of course, the Rainbow Warriors are far down at #127.  Before we start thinking that Stanford is not as good as Vanderbilt, remember this team is one year removed from victories over Notre Dame and Arizona State.  With USC on tap next week for Stanford, this week is a must win game for new head coach Troy Taylor.  Taylor is keeping his cards close to the vest and has not announced who is starting QB is going to be.  To be honest, none of the 4 competing for the spot has any meaningful experience.  But that might not matter much against the soft Hawaii defense.  We’re going to see some firepower from the Cardinal as they will inherit the Troy Taylor offense that averaged 500 yards per game at Sacramento State squaring up against the Hawaii team that gave up 35 points per game last year.  For those of you who saw the movie “Creed”, in Stanford’s backfield is EJ Smith – son of Emmitt Smith.

For those who think that Stanford is gonna get worn out traveling from California.  Hawaii had to fly back twice as far from Nashville last week.  Stanford is going to be pumped up this week when they find out that the ACC accepted them  - and will have to play like a Power 5 school to justify their inclusion.  On the other side of the ball, Coach Timmy Chang hasn’t done squat yet.  He was 2-6 in the Mountain West last season, so there is no evidence he even knows what he’s doing.  Since Hawaii won’t be able to run the ball, they really won’t be able to control this game.  There will be tit for tat scoring, for sure but Stanford has the better coach and will be more frugal with the football.  The Tree will come out of here with the dub and the 4 point spread will be inconsequential.  Taking Stanford 38-30.

Like the preview man, well put argument, we will see this weekend who comes out on top 

TEMPLE -10.5 akron

The Linc will be rocking as the Owls storm the field.  Standing in their way will be the Zips of Akron.  Based on the way they played football last year, they should change the name of the school to Asskron.  Asskron was 2-10 last year, giving up 33.5 points per game (ranked 117).  The Zips don’t return any all-conference players on defense.  If that isn’t bad enough, the Zips front seven left the team like rats jumping off a ship.     Both of their star ends (Zach Morton and Victor Jones) and their best defensive player, six-year linebacker Bubba Arslanian, are all gone.  They have reassembled with a patchwork of JV players and transfers.  The transfers were almost all JUCO kids (think Bishop Sycamore).  Even if some of these guys have talent, the fact of the matter is that they have zero experience playing amongst each other and every football afficianado knows that the best defense is TEAM defense.  The Akron offense has a decent QB but they can’t block.  Their offensive line was the worst in the MAC in tackles for loss allowed and they were 118 in the country in sacks allowed.  Not good. 

Ok..Akron’s defense is going to suck.  How does that help Temple?  Can you say EJ Warner?  That’s right – Kurt Warner’s kid.  He was the AAC Rookie of the Year.  As a freshman, he had 60% passing accuracy – definitely takes after his pappy.    In his last game of 2022, he threw for 5 TD’s and finished the game with 527 yds on 45/63 passing while his QB rating was 164.7.  Expect him to be much improved in his sophomore year.  He already has total command of the offense and can get the ball in the right spots at the right time.   The Owls have nine returning starters on defense, and that should keep Akron below their scoring average from last year of 21 points.  So Warner needs to find a way to rack up 32 points.  Saturday’s weather is going to be 80 degrees, sunny with light winds.  A perfect day to throw the ball 63 times and complete over 60% of your passes!

I love betting against horrible teams on the road.  Hoot Hoot to the pay window.  Laying the wood on the Owls.

@iamhuge

 Thanks for the write-ups .

GO ARMY   and good luck on your picks.

I appreciate the time and care you spend to get ready IAMHUGE...... it helps tremendously 

Best wishes and will follow this year as you seem well prepared. I need a couple more weeks and will enter the fray with any opinions I have...... so much change!

The eye test will be most critical in September.

Army -10 ULM

Last year, Army squared up with Louisiana – Monroe and ran the ball for 441 yards and 7.1 yards per carry.  Being shocked that ULM has not figured out a way to stop Army’s triple option makes as much sense as walking into a pizzeria and being disappointed that they don’t serve Chinese food.  Army is going to run, run and run and score score and score.  Remember Monroe from the TV show – Too Close for Comfort?  Well this game isn’t going to be close at all.  Army  won the prior two 48-24 in 2022 and 37-7 in 2020.  I am expecting more of the same. 

First of all, Army is going to run the triple option about 60 or 70 times.  In order to defend against the Triple Option, the defense needs to have assignment responsibility.  If someone blows his assignment, then the ball goes out to the running back who is unaccounted for and he runs for a first down.  If the defense does not practice for this over and over, they won’t be prepared for it. Even if they are prepared for it, they are not physically able to handle it.  Think of a 270 pound lineman firing out at you 60 times headed right for your knees or thighs.  Army doesn’t patty cake pass block like all of the other teams.  They fire out at you trying to maim you.  ULM will be sick of this halfway through the first quarter.  Their D Line was recruited to pass rush and defeat zone blocking.  They are not physically capable of getting their hands down to stop the charge of the Army O Line.

ULM got whacked by the transfer portal and their 2 deep is really shaky. Their QB, Chandler Rogers, transferred out and they are stuck with JUCO retread Jiya Wright, who is playing for his 4 college team.  No one on ULM even knows who he is.  Wright has appeared in six games and played a total of 87 offensive snaps over the last two seasons (2021-22). His last three starts under center came during the abbreviated 2021spring season at Fort Scott (Kansas) Community College.  Now he goes up against the never say die West Point defense who will hit you through the echo of the whistle.  Army was third in the nation in pass defense and overall allowed 17 points or fewer in six of the last seven games.

You know how the transfer portal wreaks absolute havoc among Group of 5 teams?  Well guess what?  The transfer portal doesn’t exist for Army.  It’s Hotel California…you can check out any time you like, but you can never leave.  So there’s no doubt that team chemistry and cohesion at Army is far superior than what’s going on at the ULM shitshow. 

There is no scenario where Army doesn’t score 40 points.  ULM only averaged 22 points per game last year and with the clock running on Army first downs, this game is going to end quick.   This game ends 41- 17 in favor of the Cadets. 

I'm also leaning Stanford. They're still putrid, but have recruited at a fairly high level the last few years (41 & 24 in the country the last 2 years). Much better than what Hawaii has right now with all of their portal transfers.  And they have a pretty good idea of what to expect coming into this game. I was glad they got Shaw out of there. At least Troy Taylor brings in a more exciting brand of offense. And Hawaii's defense is pretty bad from what I saw Saturday night.

Nice writeups.  Best of luck huge 

Thank you for your research and I absolutely love the write ups.  My favorites of these are Temple, Army and SC.  Good luck this year HUGE!  

Super Chicken  

Let’s go Huskers

Ouch. Tough way to end the half.  Nebraska looks much more cohesive and sound when compared to last season. 

NC ST td 

Nebraska fumbles the game away.  4 turnovers. But they still cover.  1-0 on the week. 

Sims got in trouble each time he threw off his back foot.....has to throw it short sometimes instead of forcing it in when nursing a lead or in the red zone