Week 4 is what I like to call “overreaction week” with the results of the previous week getting too much attention in the marketplace relative to how the teams fared in the previous two weeks. In addition, it seems like the love for the home teams is a little too strong as well and, for this reason, we are going all road doggie in Week 4. What will be even more awesome is this Saturday I will be in the sportsbook in Atlantic City cheering and beering…so let’s go! Here are my picks for the week, with analysis to follow. Best of luck to all!
Nevada +25 AIR FORCE
Duke +9.5 KANSAS
Mtsu +25.5 MIAMI-FL
Fiu +28 WESTERN KENTUCKY
Navy +17.5 EAST CAROLINA
James Madison +8.5 APPALACHIAN STATE
Louisiana tech +12.5 SOUTH ALABAMA
Vanderbilt +40 ALABAMA
Which ones do you like?
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Week 4 is what I like to call “overreaction week” with the results of the previous week getting too much attention in the marketplace relative to how the teams fared in the previous two weeks. In addition, it seems like the love for the home teams is a little too strong as well and, for this reason, we are going all road doggie in Week 4. What will be even more awesome is this Saturday I will be in the sportsbook in Atlantic City cheering and beering…so let’s go! Here are my picks for the week, with analysis to follow. Best of luck to all!
There is nothing the Wolfpack would like more than to forget about the 7 hour game they played in the howling rain at Iowa. Let’s face it, the game was a shit show and Nevada couldn’t wait to get out of Iowa City. Iowa’s defense is very good and the conditions were horrible. What Iowa had on offense was not indicative of what they played with in the previous weeks. Running back Gavin Williams and wide receivers Keagan Johnson, and Nico Ragaini, all made their season debuts. So let’s forget about Iowa because Air Force is nothing like Iowa. If you look at Nevada’s 3 other games, they are averaging 34 points per game. They defeated both New Mexico State and Texas State by double digits and they lost a barn burner against undefeated Incarnate Word. That’s the same Incarnate Word team that beat Southern Illinois (who won at Northwestern last week). If you look at these 3 games, the Pack has been very good against the run. In fact in those 3 games, Nevada gave up only 283 yards on 114 carries, for a stingy 2.5 yards per carry.
Watching the Wyoming vs. Air Force game last Friday, one would have to think we were watching Air Farce instead of Air Force. They couldn’t block inside, they couldn’t seal the edge to break off long runs on the pitch and their quarterback was missing receivers. Blame it on injured starters or a virus that affected 40 players during the week but I didn’t see no Air Force. All I saw was Ass Force. The Cowboys held Air Force to just 171 yards rushing on 40 attempts and forced the Falcons to do the majority of their damage. If you can call it that, through the air. I don’t know if it was a scheme or talent but there is no question that Nevada will learn something from this game film. Yes Air Force is home and yes they play at 6800 feet of altitude but Reno is 4500 feet so the Wolf Pack won’t be caught in bad elements, certainly not what they saw last weekend. Don Best is reporting that 4 of those Air Force starters who missed the Wyoming game have not yet indicated whether or not they will play!
Nevada has two very different style quarterbacks which gives them the luxury of switching up and giving a different look to the defense, and sticking with what works. Nevada also has a secret weapon in their kicker, who looks to be NFL bound. When you’re getting points, it’s always good when everyone yells “NOONAN!” and your kicker still makes his field goals. Look, we’re not expecting them to put up their average of 34 points per game while Air Force plays their milk the clock game, but if you look at the records of the 2 teams that Air Force has beaten, they are a combined 0-6. Maybe Air Force’s defense ain’t so hot.. If Nevada can somehow scratch 17 points, it will be a really tall task for Air Force, averaging 34 poinst per game, to find a way to put up 42 against one of the better run defenses it has faced this season. That’s a lot of points, and I’m taking them. Ahhhhh- Woooooo goes the Wolf pack!
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Nevada +25 AIR FORCE
There is nothing the Wolfpack would like more than to forget about the 7 hour game they played in the howling rain at Iowa. Let’s face it, the game was a shit show and Nevada couldn’t wait to get out of Iowa City. Iowa’s defense is very good and the conditions were horrible. What Iowa had on offense was not indicative of what they played with in the previous weeks. Running back Gavin Williams and wide receivers Keagan Johnson, and Nico Ragaini, all made their season debuts. So let’s forget about Iowa because Air Force is nothing like Iowa. If you look at Nevada’s 3 other games, they are averaging 34 points per game. They defeated both New Mexico State and Texas State by double digits and they lost a barn burner against undefeated Incarnate Word. That’s the same Incarnate Word team that beat Southern Illinois (who won at Northwestern last week). If you look at these 3 games, the Pack has been very good against the run. In fact in those 3 games, Nevada gave up only 283 yards on 114 carries, for a stingy 2.5 yards per carry.
Watching the Wyoming vs. Air Force game last Friday, one would have to think we were watching Air Farce instead of Air Force. They couldn’t block inside, they couldn’t seal the edge to break off long runs on the pitch and their quarterback was missing receivers. Blame it on injured starters or a virus that affected 40 players during the week but I didn’t see no Air Force. All I saw was Ass Force. The Cowboys held Air Force to just 171 yards rushing on 40 attempts and forced the Falcons to do the majority of their damage. If you can call it that, through the air. I don’t know if it was a scheme or talent but there is no question that Nevada will learn something from this game film. Yes Air Force is home and yes they play at 6800 feet of altitude but Reno is 4500 feet so the Wolf Pack won’t be caught in bad elements, certainly not what they saw last weekend. Don Best is reporting that 4 of those Air Force starters who missed the Wyoming game have not yet indicated whether or not they will play!
Nevada has two very different style quarterbacks which gives them the luxury of switching up and giving a different look to the defense, and sticking with what works. Nevada also has a secret weapon in their kicker, who looks to be NFL bound. When you’re getting points, it’s always good when everyone yells “NOONAN!” and your kicker still makes his field goals. Look, we’re not expecting them to put up their average of 34 points per game while Air Force plays their milk the clock game, but if you look at the records of the 2 teams that Air Force has beaten, they are a combined 0-6. Maybe Air Force’s defense ain’t so hot.. If Nevada can somehow scratch 17 points, it will be a really tall task for Air Force, averaging 34 poinst per game, to find a way to put up 42 against one of the better run defenses it has faced this season. That’s a lot of points, and I’m taking them. Ahhhhh- Woooooo goes the Wolf pack!
Everyone is on the Rock Chalk let’s blow the Jayhawks these days. The Duke Blue Devils must be thinking, “What are we, wood?”. Duke is averaging 36.7 points per game and averaging 460 yards of offense. Quarterback Riley Leonard is completing 73% of his passes for 11.0 yards per attempt. with 5 TD’s against 2 Interceptions. His QB rating has him perched at 19 in the country. Suffice to say Duke can move the ball. They have scored more points against each of their 3 opponents than any other team did so far this season. Kansas can score a lot of points, for sure, but their defense is giving up 27 points per game.
Kansas’ offense is really a one headed monster. Jalon Daniels has been great both running the ball and throwing the ball. Duke plays intelligent defense, and it is likely that Coach Elko will find a way to frustrate Daniels to at least take away his scrambling ability or the long ball…one or the other. In Elko's 23 years of coaching, 18 have been spent as a defensive coordinator. The Blue Devils have been stout against the run overall, allowing 3.4 yards per carry over the first three games. Kansas is going to score points for sure, and they will get their chunk plays, but it’s not likely they will get easy scores or scores in bunches. Given their leaky defense, it’s reasonable to assume that the Blue Devils will be able to keep the ball away from Daniels for a good part of the contest.
If the Jayhawks are winning this game by 16 points late in the 4 quarter, the back door will be WIDE OPEN for Leonard and Duke to get the late cover. There is way too much offense in this game and not enough defense to be laying that many points. It’s hard to separate yourself in a game when you’re trading touchdowns. The Jayhawks might not be ready to handle this much success just yet, and coming home for late night booty calls might lead to Duke catching them napping at noon on Saturday. It was the DUKES it was the DUKES…taking the points and the Devils.
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Duke +9.5 KANSAS
Everyone is on the Rock Chalk let’s blow the Jayhawks these days. The Duke Blue Devils must be thinking, “What are we, wood?”. Duke is averaging 36.7 points per game and averaging 460 yards of offense. Quarterback Riley Leonard is completing 73% of his passes for 11.0 yards per attempt. with 5 TD’s against 2 Interceptions. His QB rating has him perched at 19 in the country. Suffice to say Duke can move the ball. They have scored more points against each of their 3 opponents than any other team did so far this season. Kansas can score a lot of points, for sure, but their defense is giving up 27 points per game.
Kansas’ offense is really a one headed monster. Jalon Daniels has been great both running the ball and throwing the ball. Duke plays intelligent defense, and it is likely that Coach Elko will find a way to frustrate Daniels to at least take away his scrambling ability or the long ball…one or the other. In Elko's 23 years of coaching, 18 have been spent as a defensive coordinator. The Blue Devils have been stout against the run overall, allowing 3.4 yards per carry over the first three games. Kansas is going to score points for sure, and they will get their chunk plays, but it’s not likely they will get easy scores or scores in bunches. Given their leaky defense, it’s reasonable to assume that the Blue Devils will be able to keep the ball away from Daniels for a good part of the contest.
If the Jayhawks are winning this game by 16 points late in the 4 quarter, the back door will be WIDE OPEN for Leonard and Duke to get the late cover. There is way too much offense in this game and not enough defense to be laying that many points. It’s hard to separate yourself in a game when you’re trading touchdowns. The Jayhawks might not be ready to handle this much success just yet, and coming home for late night booty calls might lead to Duke catching them napping at noon on Saturday. It was the DUKES it was the DUKES…taking the points and the Devils.
I've been USA's biggest fan, but love LaTech here. Also like Nevada, as the numbers seem to like Air Force more than I do. I couldn't play Navy, who looks like a real mess. The Mids are so dependent on having "one of those" QB's, and they don't appear to. Maybe that's a function of the new blocking rules; maybe that's a function of them just sucking. They are arguably OK against the run, but will really struggle to score, and to stop passing offenses from doing so.
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I've been USA's biggest fan, but love LaTech here. Also like Nevada, as the numbers seem to like Air Force more than I do. I couldn't play Navy, who looks like a real mess. The Mids are so dependent on having "one of those" QB's, and they don't appear to. Maybe that's a function of the new blocking rules; maybe that's a function of them just sucking. They are arguably OK against the run, but will really struggle to score, and to stop passing offenses from doing so.
Some may view this as a headscratcher. Others may view it as insane. But in order to cover by 25.5 points, you need to have an offense or you need to be playing against a team that does not have an offense. The Hurricanes are 2-1 on the season, winning big against Bethune Cookman then looking less than impressive against Southern Siss and finally disappearing against Texas A&M. Bethune Cookman is a terrible FCS team (ranked 121 in the FCS) so you have to throw that game out the window, and the stats that went with it, to assess Miami’s offense. If you look at what they did against Southern Miss, they only scored 30 points – which won’t be enough to cover against MTSU. 28 of the 41 computers in the Massey Composite have MTSU ranked higher than Southern Miss. The “U” had trouble running the ball against Southern Miss, netting only 3.6 yards per carry and led by only 10-7 at the half. If it weren’t for the 3 turnovers that the Golden Eagles had, this game would have been much closer than the final score. Oh by the way, Miami’s best receiver - Restrepo -will miss at least six weeks with a foot injury. The ‘Canes failed to score a touchdown against Texas A&M, despite the fact that the Aggies suspended two cornerbacks for that game. So against FBS competition, Miami has only scored 19.5 points per game. It’s hard to cover 25.5 if you can’t score 20.
The Blue Raiders are averaging 30 points per game. They got smacked around by a very good JMU squad, but have since rebounded to score 34 and 49 points in their last two contests. Although they are fairly balanced on offense, they have been more productive throwing the ball, completing 73% of their passes. Obviously the Hurricanes need to secure this victory at home, and I expect them to play conservatively. They will find success running the ball and will probably stick with it if they get an early lead. This will shorten the game considerably and even if MTSU only gets 10 points, it will be difficult to see Miami getting more than 30. MTSU is a scrappy team and is usually an underdog. Middle Tennessee has covered the number in four of its last five games. It will be a low scoring game as the Hurricanes look ahead to opening their ACC season next week against the Tar Heels. Taking the road dog Blue Raiders +25.5.
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Mtsu +25.5 MIAMI-FL
Some may view this as a headscratcher. Others may view it as insane. But in order to cover by 25.5 points, you need to have an offense or you need to be playing against a team that does not have an offense. The Hurricanes are 2-1 on the season, winning big against Bethune Cookman then looking less than impressive against Southern Siss and finally disappearing against Texas A&M. Bethune Cookman is a terrible FCS team (ranked 121 in the FCS) so you have to throw that game out the window, and the stats that went with it, to assess Miami’s offense. If you look at what they did against Southern Miss, they only scored 30 points – which won’t be enough to cover against MTSU. 28 of the 41 computers in the Massey Composite have MTSU ranked higher than Southern Miss. The “U” had trouble running the ball against Southern Miss, netting only 3.6 yards per carry and led by only 10-7 at the half. If it weren’t for the 3 turnovers that the Golden Eagles had, this game would have been much closer than the final score. Oh by the way, Miami’s best receiver - Restrepo -will miss at least six weeks with a foot injury. The ‘Canes failed to score a touchdown against Texas A&M, despite the fact that the Aggies suspended two cornerbacks for that game. So against FBS competition, Miami has only scored 19.5 points per game. It’s hard to cover 25.5 if you can’t score 20.
The Blue Raiders are averaging 30 points per game. They got smacked around by a very good JMU squad, but have since rebounded to score 34 and 49 points in their last two contests. Although they are fairly balanced on offense, they have been more productive throwing the ball, completing 73% of their passes. Obviously the Hurricanes need to secure this victory at home, and I expect them to play conservatively. They will find success running the ball and will probably stick with it if they get an early lead. This will shorten the game considerably and even if MTSU only gets 10 points, it will be difficult to see Miami getting more than 30. MTSU is a scrappy team and is usually an underdog. Middle Tennessee has covered the number in four of its last five games. It will be a low scoring game as the Hurricanes look ahead to opening their ACC season next week against the Tar Heels. Taking the road dog Blue Raiders +25.5.
Unconvential pick? Unorthodox pick? Moronic pick? All of the above? The FIU Panthers are the lowest ranked team in the FBS and they are on the road this week against the Hilltopper offense that just can’t be stopped. So what are we missing here? This is exactly what is going to happen in this game: WKU is going to get up to a 3 score lead in the first half. The problem is that their defense is no good. FIU can’t run the ball so they are going to keep throwing it. They will throw it in the 2 half when WKU’s JV is in the game and they will score 2 touchdowns in the second half. Grayson James has thrown for 403 yards for FIU, completing 59% of his passes this season and recording four touchdown passes and two interceptions. FIU is averaging 25 points per game. That means that WKU will have to score 50 to cover, and it will be the Kye Robichaux show in the 2 half as he tries for 200 yards – eating up clock in the process. WKU couldn’t score 50 against Hawaii. They won’t score 50 against FIU and, as a result, won’t cover. Taking the Panthers and all of those points!
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Fiu +28 WESTERN KENTUCKY
Unconvential pick? Unorthodox pick? Moronic pick? All of the above? The FIU Panthers are the lowest ranked team in the FBS and they are on the road this week against the Hilltopper offense that just can’t be stopped. So what are we missing here? This is exactly what is going to happen in this game: WKU is going to get up to a 3 score lead in the first half. The problem is that their defense is no good. FIU can’t run the ball so they are going to keep throwing it. They will throw it in the 2 half when WKU’s JV is in the game and they will score 2 touchdowns in the second half. Grayson James has thrown for 403 yards for FIU, completing 59% of his passes this season and recording four touchdown passes and two interceptions. FIU is averaging 25 points per game. That means that WKU will have to score 50 to cover, and it will be the Kye Robichaux show in the 2 half as he tries for 200 yards – eating up clock in the process. WKU couldn’t score 50 against Hawaii. They won’t score 50 against FIU and, as a result, won’t cover. Taking the Panthers and all of those points!
Week 4 is what I like to call “overreaction week” with the results of the previous week getting too much attention in the marketplace relative to how the teams fared in the previous two weeks. In addition, it seems like the love for the home teams is a little too strong as well and, for this reason, we are going all road doggie in Week 4. What will be even more awesome is this Saturday I will be in the sportsbook in Atlantic City cheering and beering…so let’s go! Here are my picks for the week, with analysis to follow. Best of luck to all! Nevada +25 AIR FORCE Duke +9.5 KANSAS Mtsu +25.5 MIAMI-FL Fiu +28 WESTERN KENTUCKY Navy +17.5 EAST CAROLINA James Madison +8.5 APPALACHIAN STATE Louisiana tech +12.5 SOUTH ALABAMA Vanderbilt +40 ALABAMA Which ones do you like?
NEVADA , DUKE , FIU , JMU . Like the over on FIU/WKy game and the over on Duke/Kansas .
BOL HUGE
tip.
God , Family and beer . That's all that matters
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Quote Originally Posted by iamhuge:
Week 4 is what I like to call “overreaction week” with the results of the previous week getting too much attention in the marketplace relative to how the teams fared in the previous two weeks. In addition, it seems like the love for the home teams is a little too strong as well and, for this reason, we are going all road doggie in Week 4. What will be even more awesome is this Saturday I will be in the sportsbook in Atlantic City cheering and beering…so let’s go! Here are my picks for the week, with analysis to follow. Best of luck to all! Nevada +25 AIR FORCE Duke +9.5 KANSAS Mtsu +25.5 MIAMI-FL Fiu +28 WESTERN KENTUCKY Navy +17.5 EAST CAROLINA James Madison +8.5 APPALACHIAN STATE Louisiana tech +12.5 SOUTH ALABAMA Vanderbilt +40 ALABAMA Which ones do you like?
NEVADA , DUKE , FIU , JMU . Like the over on FIU/WKy game and the over on Duke/Kansas .
If Navy was a submarine right now, it would have screen doors. They started the season with losses to Delaware and Memphis. They had last week off to lick their wounds and decide if they want to play football this season. These are tough kids. They faced very similar adversity last season in the first two weeks of the season, and then played really tough football the rest of the way, winning 4 of their remaining 10 games and covering a 17.5 point spread in 4 of their 6 losses. In other words, expect these guys to come out fighting this week.
East Carolina has been great this year. They should have beaten NC State, but they failed. Then they played. Then they had two big wins over Old Dominion and FCS Campbell. Navy lost a close game to Delaware, a very good FCS squad and held them to only 14 points. Delaware is a top 10 FCS squad. In their other two games, they scored 38.5 points. Remember, they only scored 14 on Navy. Memphis put up a lot of points against Navy, winning 37-13. But there are a couple of things to note. Memphis ran the ball for only 2.8 yards per carry against the Middies, while Navy was able to move the ball for 215 yards on the ground against them. Also Navy had 3 turnovers in that game to zero for Memphis, so obviously with a clean game, Navy would have covered 17.5 points.
Last year, Navy lost to ECU 38-35. The over/under for this game is 49.5 points. That means Vegas thinks that ECU will win by the score of 34-16. Campbell scored 10 points against ECU. Navy is going to score a lot more than Campbell did. Sagarin ratings has Memphis and ECU ranked about the same. If Navy plays a clean game, ECU won’t be able to put up the same number of points that Memphis did against Navy. ECU plays tough as a dog, but they are sloppy as favorites. This game is going to be much lower scoring than last year’s game, which makes it tougher to cover this line.
Not that it means anything but since 2006, ECU has been favored against Navy 3 times, never by more than 3.5 points. They have never covered in those games, and the singular outright victory was last season. The Pirates are 2-7 against the spread when playing Navy. Historically, the triple option has worn down ECU. They have one guy out of position on one play and Navy gets a huge chunk play. Coach Niumatalolo has been there for a long time for good reason. He is demanding, he has high expectations for his team's play. That means what they did in the first two weeks is unacceptable, and it will change. The ECU defense just isn’t top notch, and Navy will be able to eat clock and move the chains, making it extremely difficult for ECU to get enough possessions to cover this spread. Anchors Away…taking the points.
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Navy +17.5 EAST CAROLINA
If Navy was a submarine right now, it would have screen doors. They started the season with losses to Delaware and Memphis. They had last week off to lick their wounds and decide if they want to play football this season. These are tough kids. They faced very similar adversity last season in the first two weeks of the season, and then played really tough football the rest of the way, winning 4 of their remaining 10 games and covering a 17.5 point spread in 4 of their 6 losses. In other words, expect these guys to come out fighting this week.
East Carolina has been great this year. They should have beaten NC State, but they failed. Then they played. Then they had two big wins over Old Dominion and FCS Campbell. Navy lost a close game to Delaware, a very good FCS squad and held them to only 14 points. Delaware is a top 10 FCS squad. In their other two games, they scored 38.5 points. Remember, they only scored 14 on Navy. Memphis put up a lot of points against Navy, winning 37-13. But there are a couple of things to note. Memphis ran the ball for only 2.8 yards per carry against the Middies, while Navy was able to move the ball for 215 yards on the ground against them. Also Navy had 3 turnovers in that game to zero for Memphis, so obviously with a clean game, Navy would have covered 17.5 points.
Last year, Navy lost to ECU 38-35. The over/under for this game is 49.5 points. That means Vegas thinks that ECU will win by the score of 34-16. Campbell scored 10 points against ECU. Navy is going to score a lot more than Campbell did. Sagarin ratings has Memphis and ECU ranked about the same. If Navy plays a clean game, ECU won’t be able to put up the same number of points that Memphis did against Navy. ECU plays tough as a dog, but they are sloppy as favorites. This game is going to be much lower scoring than last year’s game, which makes it tougher to cover this line.
Not that it means anything but since 2006, ECU has been favored against Navy 3 times, never by more than 3.5 points. They have never covered in those games, and the singular outright victory was last season. The Pirates are 2-7 against the spread when playing Navy. Historically, the triple option has worn down ECU. They have one guy out of position on one play and Navy gets a huge chunk play. Coach Niumatalolo has been there for a long time for good reason. He is demanding, he has high expectations for his team's play. That means what they did in the first two weeks is unacceptable, and it will change. The ECU defense just isn’t top notch, and Navy will be able to eat clock and move the chains, making it extremely difficult for ECU to get enough possessions to cover this spread. Anchors Away…taking the points.
Navy +17.5 EAST CAROLINA If Navy was a submarine right now, it would have screen doors. They started the season with losses to Delaware and Memphis. They had last week off to lick their wounds and decide if they want to play football this season. These are tough kids. They faced very similar adversity last season in the first two weeks of the season, and then played really tough football the rest of the way, winning 4 of their remaining 10 games and covering a 17.5 point spread in 4 of their 6 losses. In other words, expect these guys to come out fighting this week. East Carolina has been great this year. They should have beaten NC State, but they failed. Then they played. Then they had two big wins over Old Dominion and FCS Campbell. Navy lost a close game to Delaware, a very good FCS squad and held them to only 14 points. Delaware is a top 10 FCS squad. In their other two games, they scored 38.5 points. Remember, they only scored 14 on Navy. Memphis put up a lot of points against Navy, winning 37-13. But there are a couple of things to note. Memphis ran the ball for only 2.8 yards per carry against the Middies, while Navy was able to move the ball for 215 yards on the ground against them. Also Navy had 3 turnovers in that game to zero for Memphis, so obviously with a clean game, Navy would have covered 17.5 points. Last year, Navy lost to ECU 38-35. The over/under for this game is 49.5 points. That means Vegas thinks that ECU will win by the score of 34-16. Campbell scored 10 points against ECU. Navy is going to score a lot more than Campbell did. Sagarin ratings has Memphis and ECU ranked about the same. If Navy plays a clean game, ECU won’t be able to put up the same number of points that Memphis did against Navy. ECU plays tough as a dog, but they are sloppy as favorites. This game is going to be much lower scoring than last year’s game, which makes it tougher to cover this line. Not that it means anything but since 2006, ECU has been favored against Navy 3 times, never by more than 3.5 points. They have never covered in those games, and the singular outright victory was last season. The Pirates are 2-7 against the spread when playing Navy. Historically, the triple option has worn down ECU. They have one guy out of position on one play and Navy gets a huge chunk play. Coach Niumatalolo has been there for a long time for good reason. He is demanding, he has high expectations for his team's play. That means what they did in the first two weeks is unacceptable, and it will change. The ECU defense just isn’t top notch, and Navy will be able to eat clock and move the chains, making it extremely difficult for ECU to get enough possessions to cover this spread. Anchors Away…taking the points.
thanks for writeup, you do a nice job
lots of games , we have to be against one another at times
best of luck
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Quote Originally Posted by iamhuge:
Navy +17.5 EAST CAROLINA If Navy was a submarine right now, it would have screen doors. They started the season with losses to Delaware and Memphis. They had last week off to lick their wounds and decide if they want to play football this season. These are tough kids. They faced very similar adversity last season in the first two weeks of the season, and then played really tough football the rest of the way, winning 4 of their remaining 10 games and covering a 17.5 point spread in 4 of their 6 losses. In other words, expect these guys to come out fighting this week. East Carolina has been great this year. They should have beaten NC State, but they failed. Then they played. Then they had two big wins over Old Dominion and FCS Campbell. Navy lost a close game to Delaware, a very good FCS squad and held them to only 14 points. Delaware is a top 10 FCS squad. In their other two games, they scored 38.5 points. Remember, they only scored 14 on Navy. Memphis put up a lot of points against Navy, winning 37-13. But there are a couple of things to note. Memphis ran the ball for only 2.8 yards per carry against the Middies, while Navy was able to move the ball for 215 yards on the ground against them. Also Navy had 3 turnovers in that game to zero for Memphis, so obviously with a clean game, Navy would have covered 17.5 points. Last year, Navy lost to ECU 38-35. The over/under for this game is 49.5 points. That means Vegas thinks that ECU will win by the score of 34-16. Campbell scored 10 points against ECU. Navy is going to score a lot more than Campbell did. Sagarin ratings has Memphis and ECU ranked about the same. If Navy plays a clean game, ECU won’t be able to put up the same number of points that Memphis did against Navy. ECU plays tough as a dog, but they are sloppy as favorites. This game is going to be much lower scoring than last year’s game, which makes it tougher to cover this line. Not that it means anything but since 2006, ECU has been favored against Navy 3 times, never by more than 3.5 points. They have never covered in those games, and the singular outright victory was last season. The Pirates are 2-7 against the spread when playing Navy. Historically, the triple option has worn down ECU. They have one guy out of position on one play and Navy gets a huge chunk play. Coach Niumatalolo has been there for a long time for good reason. He is demanding, he has high expectations for his team's play. That means what they did in the first two weeks is unacceptable, and it will change. The ECU defense just isn’t top notch, and Navy will be able to eat clock and move the chains, making it extremely difficult for ECU to get enough possessions to cover this spread. Anchors Away…taking the points.
thanks for writeup, you do a nice job
lots of games , we have to be against one another at times
Like the Duke pick - your point on Elko is dead on. Kansas does a lot of shifting and motion - they get defenses out of position. Similar style to triple option in a way. A lot of eye candy - Houston was clueless. Duke has smart players and Elko is a great defensive mind - he will have them playing with discipline. Plus Leonard is good and the Duke off should move the ball well. Good job on the write up. Good luck
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@iamhuge
Like the Duke pick - your point on Elko is dead on. Kansas does a lot of shifting and motion - they get defenses out of position. Similar style to triple option in a way. A lot of eye candy - Houston was clueless. Duke has smart players and Elko is a great defensive mind - he will have them playing with discipline. Plus Leonard is good and the Duke off should move the ball well. Good job on the write up. Good luck
The JMU Dukes are winners. They are 2-0 this season and have won their games by the average score of 54-7. But “who have they played?” you might ask. No one seems to be saying that about Michigan, and they have played just as soft a schedule than JMU has. James Madison had last week off to prepare for Appalachian State. Let’s just call this game the coming out party for the Dukes. I give App State tons of credit for knocking off Texas A&M but people seem to forget that App State was +2 in turnovers for that game and that the Aggies were able to run the ball for 4.6 yards per carry – but for some reason chose to run the ball for 18 plays. In Appalachian States other two games they couldn’t stop North Carolina and were lucky to take that game to the last play. Last week, they should have lost to Troy at home, had it not been for the hail Mary at the end. Virtually every computer has JMU rated higher than Troy. The Mountaineers can easily be 0-3 right now and I think it’s safe to say they are exhausted mentally right now and still have a hangover from the A&M game. Not a good setup for JMU coming to town with a chip on their shoulder and something to prove. Two weeks between games also helped build anticipation for JMU players, as the Dukes have prepared for both their first road game of 2022 and their first-ever game in the new conference.
Last year, JMU was the 2nd best team in FCS, behind North Dakota State. JMU returns many of the same players that helped lead the team to a 12-2 record and JMU returns 7 offensive starters. They picked up transfer Todd Centeio, an incredibly athletic and explosive dual threat player from Colorado State. He’s ranked 3 in the country right now for passing efficiency, right behind CJ Stroud and has 9 TD’s and zero picks. He’s been a great leader so far and you might be wondering why Colorado State sucks so bad right now without him? No matter what level they have played at, the players on the JMU roster know how to win. They are mentally tough. It’s not something you can teach…you have to experience it. This 2022 JMU team is better than the 2021 JMU team. Let’s break down their 44-7 victory over MTSU. MTSU won their other 2 games and averaged 42 points per game in those victories. They only mustered 7 points against JMU. You want more? They only had 119 yards of offense and averaged 0.4 yards per carry against the JMU defense. In their other two games, they averaged over 400 yards per game of offense. What’s the difference? It’s the James Madison defense. JMU has a defense allowing just eight rushing yards per game over two weeks — the best in the FBS. On the other side of the ball, JMU ran for 5.0 yards per carry against MTSU but when Colorado State played MTSU they could only manage -0.3 yards per carry. That’s right…minus. So MTSU can definitely stop the run – they just couldn’t stop James Madison’s rushing attack.
App St offense did not look good last week. James Madison has dominated on both sides of the ball out-gaining their opponents 1,010 yards to 331 in their two contests. This is a really big game for James Madison, but it’s not too big for them. The kids on this roster have played for national championships before. I really think the Dukes win this one outright, but and getting 8.5 points is a ridiculous gift. There is absolutely no evidence out there that Appy is capable of running away with this game. They haven’t done it in 3 tries already. Give me James Madison and the points here.
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James Madison +8.5 APPALACHIAN STATE
The JMU Dukes are winners. They are 2-0 this season and have won their games by the average score of 54-7. But “who have they played?” you might ask. No one seems to be saying that about Michigan, and they have played just as soft a schedule than JMU has. James Madison had last week off to prepare for Appalachian State. Let’s just call this game the coming out party for the Dukes. I give App State tons of credit for knocking off Texas A&M but people seem to forget that App State was +2 in turnovers for that game and that the Aggies were able to run the ball for 4.6 yards per carry – but for some reason chose to run the ball for 18 plays. In Appalachian States other two games they couldn’t stop North Carolina and were lucky to take that game to the last play. Last week, they should have lost to Troy at home, had it not been for the hail Mary at the end. Virtually every computer has JMU rated higher than Troy. The Mountaineers can easily be 0-3 right now and I think it’s safe to say they are exhausted mentally right now and still have a hangover from the A&M game. Not a good setup for JMU coming to town with a chip on their shoulder and something to prove. Two weeks between games also helped build anticipation for JMU players, as the Dukes have prepared for both their first road game of 2022 and their first-ever game in the new conference.
Last year, JMU was the 2nd best team in FCS, behind North Dakota State. JMU returns many of the same players that helped lead the team to a 12-2 record and JMU returns 7 offensive starters. They picked up transfer Todd Centeio, an incredibly athletic and explosive dual threat player from Colorado State. He’s ranked 3 in the country right now for passing efficiency, right behind CJ Stroud and has 9 TD’s and zero picks. He’s been a great leader so far and you might be wondering why Colorado State sucks so bad right now without him? No matter what level they have played at, the players on the JMU roster know how to win. They are mentally tough. It’s not something you can teach…you have to experience it. This 2022 JMU team is better than the 2021 JMU team. Let’s break down their 44-7 victory over MTSU. MTSU won their other 2 games and averaged 42 points per game in those victories. They only mustered 7 points against JMU. You want more? They only had 119 yards of offense and averaged 0.4 yards per carry against the JMU defense. In their other two games, they averaged over 400 yards per game of offense. What’s the difference? It’s the James Madison defense. JMU has a defense allowing just eight rushing yards per game over two weeks — the best in the FBS. On the other side of the ball, JMU ran for 5.0 yards per carry against MTSU but when Colorado State played MTSU they could only manage -0.3 yards per carry. That’s right…minus. So MTSU can definitely stop the run – they just couldn’t stop James Madison’s rushing attack.
App St offense did not look good last week. James Madison has dominated on both sides of the ball out-gaining their opponents 1,010 yards to 331 in their two contests. This is a really big game for James Madison, but it’s not too big for them. The kids on this roster have played for national championships before. I really think the Dukes win this one outright, but and getting 8.5 points is a ridiculous gift. There is absolutely no evidence out there that Appy is capable of running away with this game. They haven’t done it in 3 tries already. Give me James Madison and the points here.
Louisiana Tech can’t run the ball and they can’t play defense. So what do I like about the Bulldogs? South Alabama went all the way out West for their statement game against a Power 5 UCLA team and is absolutely crushed after losing by a point. South Alabama led 17-6 in the first half and 31-23 in the fourth quarter against UCLA before giving the lead away late. I have seen this before. Teams come home thinking they can then sleepwalk against a lesser opponent in a non-conference game. Execution and effort are both lacking and the game ends up closer than anyone thought it could be. Missouri and Clemson scored 52 and 48 points vs. Louisiana Tech, but the South Alabama offense is not at all of that calibur, especially up front. The Bulldogs can’t stop the run, so expect the Jaguars to run the ball more than they usually do which will certainly shorten the game, favoring the underdog. Does this backwards logic make any sense?
LA Tech has a secret weapon in Tight End Griffen Hebert. Last week against Clemson, he had five catches for 122 yards. That’s Clemson, not South Alabama. He’s going to help them down in the Red Zone, where LA Tech has been very efficient and scoring on 89% of their trips down there. The Bulldogs were only down 13-6 at halftime against Clemson. Had it not been for the 4 turnovers, the game could have ended much closer. They had the same issue against Mizzou, and turnovers were the reason why the didn’t cover the spread in that game. The Bulldogs operate out of an “Air Raid” offense, and throw the ball on nearly 60 percent of snaps, so if LA Tech is trailing by 19 points in the 4 quarter, they can easily go down the field quickly and get the back door cover and South Alabama won’t care. Louisiana Tech scored two touchdowns in the fourth quarter against Clemson. The Bulldogs passing offense went vertical many times and had great pass protection only giving up one sack vs that fearsome Clemson front. The receivers were getting open and QB Parker McNeil averaged 14 yards per completion. The Bulldogs had seven plays of 20+ yards. Very chunky. One would expect them to be more successful throwing against the Jags. Prior to the Clemson game, La Tech averaged 150 yards on the ground, so they may be able to show a balanced attack this week. The 20 points scored by LA Tech was the most Clemson has allowed by a non-conference opponent since 2018. This game is all about taking the points and a back door cover riding a potent offense. Taking the 12.5 and the Bulldogs.
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Louisiana tech +12.5 SOUTH ALABAMA
Louisiana Tech can’t run the ball and they can’t play defense. So what do I like about the Bulldogs? South Alabama went all the way out West for their statement game against a Power 5 UCLA team and is absolutely crushed after losing by a point. South Alabama led 17-6 in the first half and 31-23 in the fourth quarter against UCLA before giving the lead away late. I have seen this before. Teams come home thinking they can then sleepwalk against a lesser opponent in a non-conference game. Execution and effort are both lacking and the game ends up closer than anyone thought it could be. Missouri and Clemson scored 52 and 48 points vs. Louisiana Tech, but the South Alabama offense is not at all of that calibur, especially up front. The Bulldogs can’t stop the run, so expect the Jaguars to run the ball more than they usually do which will certainly shorten the game, favoring the underdog. Does this backwards logic make any sense?
LA Tech has a secret weapon in Tight End Griffen Hebert. Last week against Clemson, he had five catches for 122 yards. That’s Clemson, not South Alabama. He’s going to help them down in the Red Zone, where LA Tech has been very efficient and scoring on 89% of their trips down there. The Bulldogs were only down 13-6 at halftime against Clemson. Had it not been for the 4 turnovers, the game could have ended much closer. They had the same issue against Mizzou, and turnovers were the reason why the didn’t cover the spread in that game. The Bulldogs operate out of an “Air Raid” offense, and throw the ball on nearly 60 percent of snaps, so if LA Tech is trailing by 19 points in the 4 quarter, they can easily go down the field quickly and get the back door cover and South Alabama won’t care. Louisiana Tech scored two touchdowns in the fourth quarter against Clemson. The Bulldogs passing offense went vertical many times and had great pass protection only giving up one sack vs that fearsome Clemson front. The receivers were getting open and QB Parker McNeil averaged 14 yards per completion. The Bulldogs had seven plays of 20+ yards. Very chunky. One would expect them to be more successful throwing against the Jags. Prior to the Clemson game, La Tech averaged 150 yards on the ground, so they may be able to show a balanced attack this week. The 20 points scored by LA Tech was the most Clemson has allowed by a non-conference opponent since 2018. This game is all about taking the points and a back door cover riding a potent offense. Taking the 12.5 and the Bulldogs.
nice write ups. Thank you. With you on all except I think you did not give enough consideration for Kansas and App St schedule versus Duke and James Madison schedule. With schedule adjustments, the favorites are much stronger.
but, you can’t really dock a good team for beating a bad team. I just don’t think I can say a “FCS” team and Duke are good teams yet. It took App St 3 years to have a good record in FCS. You could be right about Duke, but when you compare Duke and Kansas apples to apples by the numbers, Kansas is better.
I like both of these games to be great live bet opportunities. Will learn in 5 minutes in both games where Duke and JM stand versus decent competition.
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@iamhuge
nice write ups. Thank you. With you on all except I think you did not give enough consideration for Kansas and App St schedule versus Duke and James Madison schedule. With schedule adjustments, the favorites are much stronger.
but, you can’t really dock a good team for beating a bad team. I just don’t think I can say a “FCS” team and Duke are good teams yet. It took App St 3 years to have a good record in FCS. You could be right about Duke, but when you compare Duke and Kansas apples to apples by the numbers, Kansas is better.
I like both of these games to be great live bet opportunities. Will learn in 5 minutes in both games where Duke and JM stand versus decent competition.
Awesome write ups. Can't stand some threads with just their picks- lame! Yes, you guys know who you are! I hope you have a blast in AC. I also enjoy people having another perspective. Information is power! As a side note- almost every weekend some college team getting many points almost pulls the upset or actually does. In the NFL that almost never happens. So hopefully you seize the 'Saturday' and crush it. Good luck to all!
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Awesome write ups. Can't stand some threads with just their picks- lame! Yes, you guys know who you are! I hope you have a blast in AC. I also enjoy people having another perspective. Information is power! As a side note- almost every weekend some college team getting many points almost pulls the upset or actually does. In the NFL that almost never happens. So hopefully you seize the 'Saturday' and crush it. Good luck to all!
Bama is great. No denying. But Vandy isn’t terrible, particularly their offense. This is just way too many points. Vandy is averaging 42 points per game. If Alabama gets a big lead, they will put in the JV. They always do and they are at Arkansas next week. There isn’t a scenario that Vandy score less than 14 points. That means Bama is going to need to score 54 to cover and if they are scoring that many points it means that Bryce Young won’t be the ones doing it.
Vandy has the third most passing plays over 20 yards in the SEC. Vandy’s running back Patrick Smith, wide receiver Gamarion Carter and cornerback Trudell Berry will be returning from suspension. In four games the Vanderbilt offense has allowed only two sacks. They won’t be able to run against Bama, but if their QB can stay upright, he’ll be able to complete passes. I love Vanderbilt’s stamina as they were down 14-points in the second half and ended up scoring 24 unanswered points on NIU. This is great ammo for a back door cover. At the end of the day, this is a big guess. If Bama wants to win by 40, they easily could but it just seems like Vanderbilt’s passing offense will be able to do well against the Tide JV. 40 is a lot of points and I am taking them.
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Vanderbilt +40 ALABAMA
Bama is great. No denying. But Vandy isn’t terrible, particularly their offense. This is just way too many points. Vandy is averaging 42 points per game. If Alabama gets a big lead, they will put in the JV. They always do and they are at Arkansas next week. There isn’t a scenario that Vandy score less than 14 points. That means Bama is going to need to score 54 to cover and if they are scoring that many points it means that Bryce Young won’t be the ones doing it.
Vandy has the third most passing plays over 20 yards in the SEC. Vandy’s running back Patrick Smith, wide receiver Gamarion Carter and cornerback Trudell Berry will be returning from suspension. In four games the Vanderbilt offense has allowed only two sacks. They won’t be able to run against Bama, but if their QB can stay upright, he’ll be able to complete passes. I love Vanderbilt’s stamina as they were down 14-points in the second half and ended up scoring 24 unanswered points on NIU. This is great ammo for a back door cover. At the end of the day, this is a big guess. If Bama wants to win by 40, they easily could but it just seems like Vanderbilt’s passing offense will be able to do well against the Tide JV. 40 is a lot of points and I am taking them.
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Huge, like Nev / AF OVER 46, B@nk ittttt.
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