Taking a bunch of road favorites this week but betting against some really bad teams as well....if I don't win this week, I'm shutting it down for a while. Analysis to follow..... Which ones do you like?
sam houston -10.5 UTEP
jacksonville st -15.5 KENNESAW STATE
UNLV -4 syracuse
navy -7 AIR FORCE
Clemson -14 FLORIDA STATE
SOUTH CAROLINA +9.5 ole miss
james Madison -14 ULM
sam houston -10.5 UTEP
This is a big spread for a road team. But Sam Houston has been up to the task and UTEP hasn’t. UTEP got blown out by Nebraska, Liberty beat them by 18 and Colorado State, who is ranked much lower than Sam Houston, beat UTEP by 10. There is a reason why UTEP blows. They can’t run the ball. For the season, they are only averaging 2.8 yards per carry. Their only victory was in overtime over FCS Southern Utah, a team that has already lost to two FCS teams.
Sam Houston, on the other hand, has displayed some really good offense. With a record of 4-1, they are averaging 30 points per game. In their 4 victories, they have covered this 10.5 point spread 3 times. Massey Composite has UTEP ranked 132 out of 134 teams. Sam Houston beat Rice by 20. Rice is ranked 121. Sam Houston beat Hawaii by 18. Hawaii is ranked 112. Sam Houston beat New Mexico State by 20. New Mexico State is ranked 129. Sam Houston beat red hot Texas State last week. Although they only beat them by 1 point, Sagarin has Texas State about 18 points better than UTEP.
Sam Houston’s QB Hunter Watson has been a first down machine. He is averaging 6.2 yards per pass attempt and is the Bearkats leading running back as well. The guy is a stud. Sam Houston’s leading receiver, Qua'Vez Humphreys, already has 3 TDs and is averaging a pornographic 23.4 yards per catch. Considering that UTEP’s defense is giving up 30.5 points per game, it’s obvious that Sam Houston is going to have a plethora of options when it comes to how and how many points they score. Covering this spread is going to be candy from babies. Laying the points and taking the Bearkats.
@LonghornHoosier
Point well taken but they lost to Southern Utah at home - Southern Utah getting 5.7 yards per carry running the ball on the Miners - and I believe Sam Houston is playing at a much higher level than Southern Utah is. To your point, it's no fun laying the double digit spread but I just feel that UTEP's season is lost and perhaps they will save their powder for the end of the season when 3 of their last 4 games are winnable.
jacksonville st -15.5 KENNESAW STATE
What do I know about Jacksonville State, other than they do not play in Florida? Not much. What I do know is that Kennesaw State, according to 41 of 45 computer rankings, is one of the worst 3 teams in the FBS. Their offense is completely horrible, averaging only 12.2 points per game and 2.0 yards per rushing attempt. They’ve only scored 4 touchdowns all season. Meanwhile, their defense is giving up 29.3 points per game and their secondary is especially swiss cheese as opposing quarterbacks are completing 69% of their passes against them. They suck in the Red Zone, scoring touchdowns only twice in 8 trips. So it’s no wonder what we’ve seen on the scoreboard. Louisiana beat the Owls by 24 and San Jose State beat them by 21. Kennesaw State lost to FCS school UT-Martin during their own homecoming.
Jax State is only 1-3 on the season, but last week they pounded Southern Siss by the score of 44-7. They haven’t had much trouble moving the ball or scoring all season, averaging 29.8 points per game. They even put up 27 points against a pretty solid Coastal Carolina Squad, so it’s likely you’ll see them score 5 TD’s on Friday night. This is especially true because the Gamecocks will feast on Kennesaw’s achilles heal, their pass defense. QB Tyler Huff is completing 68% of his passes this year. This accuracy will move the chains consistently against the Owls. Huff is also a first down machine scrambling, as he is the leading rusher on the Gamecocks, averaging 5.6 yards every time he tucks the ball and runs. So between him scrambling for first downs and throwing the ball accurately downfield, the Owls won’t have a chance.
Since Kennesaw State will be playing catchup most of the game, they’ll have to rely on the pass and that will kind of suck since their QB Davis Bryson only completes 52% of his passes and he has only thrown 1 TD vs 3 interceptions this season. Yes, it sucks giving points on the road but when you’re playing the worst team in college football, it won’t matter. Taking the road chalk and the Gamecocks from Alabama.
UNLV -4 syracuse
Let’s get one thing straight. UNLV is home. Being home essentially makes up for the 4 point spread. The Rebels are ranked 23 by 62 computers in the Massey Composite. Syracuse is ranked 63 by those very same computers. There is a reason for this disparity, UNLV is just better. They pass the eye test. They are blowing teams out. They are scoring 45.3 points per game and is only giving up 13.8 points per game. They smoked Houston, they beat a tough Kansas team on the road and then last week they completed tore apart a very good Fresno State team by the score of 59-14. Fresno was averaging 37 points per game up until running into UNLV.
I’m not getting what’s so interesting about Syracuse. They slept through a week 1 home victory over an average MAC team – Ohio. Then they barely beat visiting Georgia Tech, an average ACC team. They then lost to a 2-2 Stanford team. Then last week had a body bag game against Holy Cross. They just don’t have a body of work that would suggest that they can go out to Vegas and hang with this team on a wild Friday night in the BIG stadium.
Everyone is yakking about how UNLV QB Sluka left down because he didn’t get paid. All they did was get better at the position, with Hajj-Malik Williams running the show against a tough Fresno defense. Syracuse, with QB McCord, is legit under center but he’s no better than Mikey Keene from Fresno who was completely shellacked by the UNLV defense. So far this season, UNLV has won 3 of its 4 games by 20, 58, 45 points. The reason the line is so short Friday night is because no one believes that UNLV is any good this year….this week it will be video est credeo. Laying the points and taking the home team.
navy -7 AIR FORCE
I know I know…don’t get my started on why you should always bet the underdog in the Commander in Chief games….don’t get me started about playing in the altitude in Colorado Springs. But when I see the line on this game…all I can think about is that the boys in Vegas know…..THEY KNOW! However, seeing is believing. Video est credeo and there are only two things that I can piece together when I look at this matchup. 1. Navy is kicking ass this season, letting the bodies hit the floor. 2. Air Force is just terrible, and their offense is worse.
Breaking it down. Navy is an undefeated 4-0. They are averaging 46 points per game and have only given up 23.5 points per game. In the four games they have played, the 7 point spreads have been inconsequential. They beat Bucknell by 28. They beat Temple by 27. They beat Memphis ( a better team than Air Force) by 12 and they beat UAB by 23. Obviously they are a run heavy team, but they are averaging 6.2 yards per carry. They run the ball 78% of the time, and why the hell not? QB Blake Horvath is completing 68.2% of his passes this year for 721 yards and seven touchdowns in just 44 attempts. He has also rushed for 450 yards and eight touchdowns while leaving an offense that ranked fifth nationally. He ran a 4.47-second 40-yard dash as a recruit. This guy is the real deal.
Turning to Air Force is like the Bizarro Jerry episode of Seinfeld. They are the opposite of Navy. They are averaging only 12.5 points per game. Their defense has been decent, I will admit as they have only given up 21.3 points per game. But you have to look at their schedule before you make them into the ’86 Chicago Bears. Their first game was against FCS Merrimack and they struggled to their only win 21-6. Since then they have lost to 3 teams that are not as good as Navy, averaging less than 10 points per game in those contests. They basically did nothing in a 17-7 loss to San Jose State ( a team who let up 24 points against CS Sacramento and 10 points against the worst FBS team in the country, Kennesaw). They then got waxed 31-3 by Baylor, for the Bear’s only FBS victory. Finally, their worst performance last week to a pitiful Wyoming team who notched their first win over Air Force by the score of 31-19. What’s worse is that 1-4 Wyoming was averaging only 13 points per game in their other 4 tilts this season. So Air Force’s defense really isn’t that good.
What’s even worser is that Air Force’s offense is completely impotent. QB Busha cannot throw. He can’t hit an open receiver. He’s completing only 38.5% of his passes and their longest pass play of the year is only 33 yards. While he tries to be as good as Blake Horvath running the option, he’s averaging a pathetic 2.2 yards per carry. When you run the option, the QB needs to be a threat to run for first downs. This guy must be running in reverse with that average. The whole team averages only 3.5 yards per carry. Against the weak schedule they played, that’s just not cutting it. Offensively, Air Force is averaging just 243 yards per game (131st) and 176.8 rushing yards (57). Last season, they averaged 281.5 rushing yards per game to rank second in the nation. Something is really broken with the Falcons this season. As a reminder, Navy hasn’t scored less than 38 points this year and Air Force hasn’t scored more than 21. Covering this 7 points is easy money. Laying the wood on the Middies.
Clemson -14 FLORIDA STATE
No portal Dabo opened the season by getting all faceful when they teed up against the Dawgs and got completely clobbered 34-3. No one thought anything of Clemson at that time. Of course, the ACC looks a lot like the MAC these days and any team worth a crap can ride herd over it. That’s exactly what Clemson has done since they dusted themselves off after Week 1. Since then, they have been a wrecking machine and winning all of their games more than convincingly. Since the UGA game, they are averaging 55 points per game. Their QB, Cade Klubnik, is starting to look like a Heisman candidate, completing 66% of his passes for 12 TDs against only 2 interceptions. The Tiger’s O-line is also getting their licks in as they have been able to run the ball for 6.0 yards per carry on the season, behind Phil Mafah who is averaging 8.0 yards per tote.
The Seminoles, on the other hand, are in a complete tailspin. Yes, they are home this week but it’s obvious that those coming to watch Chief Osceola throw his spear may actually know that Renegade is headed for the glue factory. They will be watching their lambs go to slaughter and likely there won’t be much of a home field advantage, particularly after many of them were dealing with Hurricane Helene cleanup. FSU has finally abandoned DJ Uiagalelei at quarterback supposedly because he has an injured finger. Redshirt freshman Brock Glenn will be getting his 3 start ever (remember he played last year in the ACC championship and the bowl game blowout against Georgia. He’s not good, last year he completed only 19 of 51 passes (37%). The bottom line is FSU is 1-4 (1-3 in the ACC). FSU will be the worst team Clemson will be playing this season (after winning their other games by 46, 24 and 26 points) so the 14 point spread is meaningless. FSU is complete garbage. They lost to Georgia Tech and BC (BC could have scored at the end for a 22 point victory). They barely beat Cal, 14-9. FSU lost to Memphis by 8 points..Memphis gave up 56 points to Navy…FSU scored only 12 against Memphis. The cherry on top was last week, when the Seminoles went to SMU and got completely annihilated, 42-16. With the way Clemson has been scoring points, and the way that FSU has had futility scoring points (15.2 points per game) and now they are dragging out their 2 string QB? Let’s just say there’s not going to be a lot of chopping going on. What was most revealing was how FSU completely mailed it in during the second half of the SMU game. There isn’t any camaraderie among the Seminoles, they are all transfer portal mercenaries and won’t be playing for pride but Clemson will need to play for style points and are quickly angling to be the bull of the woods in the sad sack ACC. There’s no way FSU scores more than 14 points and Clemson easily scores more than 30. Taking the Tigers.
SOUTH CAROLINA +9.5 ole miss
Honestly, there’s not enough evidence to properly handicap this game but the Cocks getting this many points at home looks very tempting. Ole Miss has played only one good team this season, and they lost to Kentucky. The results of their other 3 games against teams ranked at the bottom of FBS plus their one FCS pay for play game are really meaningless. Right now there is just no evidence that Ole Siss can go on the road and beat a very good South Carolina team, let alone beat them by 10 points.
South Carolina, on the other hand, has already played two teams on par with Ole Siss. They really handed it to Kentucky, on the road, by the score of 31-6 – yes…the same Kentucky team that beat Ole Miss. Then they lost by a field goal in a crazy game against LSU in which the Gamecocks missed a tying field goal with 5 seconds left. The status of the Gamecock QB Sellers is uncertain, but he has been listed as probable and therefore should be the starter. The backup has played admirably in his place, so it might not matter. Here’s a list of injuries that really make you question whether or not Ole Miss can cover this:
Ole Miss
Cedrick Beavers–CB–Out
Izaiah Hartrup–WR–Out
Devin Price–WR–Out
Daniel Demery–LB–Out
Logan Diggs–RB–Out
Jayden Williams–OL–Out
Cam East–OL–Out
Joshua Pfeifer–WR–Out
Hudson Wolfe–TE–Out
Princely Umanmielen–DE–Questionable
TJ Dottery–LB–Questionable
Louis Moore–S–Questionable
Cayden Lee–WR–Questionable
Henry Parrish Jr.–RB–Questionable
JJ Pegues–DT–Questionable
Micah Pettus–OL–Questionable
Jeremy James–OL–Questionable
Akelo Stone–DT–Questionable
Matt Jones–RB–Probable
Antwane Wells Jr.–WR–Probable
Micah Davis–WR–Probable
Tre Harris–WR–Probable
Chris Graves Jr.–CB–Probable
Caden Prieskorn–TE–Probable
South Carolina
Kelvin Hunter–DB–Out
Jakai Moore–OL–Out
Raheim Sanders–RB–Probable
Jared Brown–WR–Probable
LaNorris Sellers–QB–Probable
That’s a lot of JV players that need to step up and cover 10 points on the road against a team that has played better than Ole Miss has. I’m just grabbing the points here and the back door is ALWAYS open. Taking the Home dogs.
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