Alright halfway through the season and right back where we started...if we don't win this week, I'm taking time off. Here are my picks for the week with analysis to follow. Tell me which ones you like and which ones you hate. Only 3 home teams, but 6 dogs this week. Best of luck to all:
Georgia southern +2.5 GEORGIA STATE
South florida +27 CINCINNATI
Auburn +28 GEORGIA
East Carolina +3 TULANE
Air force -9 UTAH STATE
Wyoming -3.5 NEW MEXICO
KENTUCKY -10.5 south Carolina
WAKE FOREST -15 army
Iowa +4.5 ILLINOIS
STANFORD +7 oregon state
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Alright halfway through the season and right back where we started...if we don't win this week, I'm taking time off. Here are my picks for the week with analysis to follow. Tell me which ones you like and which ones you hate. Only 3 home teams, but 6 dogs this week. Best of luck to all:
In order for Georgia State (1-4) to cover this spread, they have to win the game. Of the 31 published computer rankings so far, Georgia Southern (3-2) is ranked higher in 28 of these computers. The Eagles have already beaten 1 team (Nebraska) better than Georgia State and they have handily beaten another team (Ball State) which is on par with the Panthers. The Eagles gave undefeated Coastal Carolina their toughest game of the year. Coastal beat Georgia State by 17 points, but eked out a 4 point win over the Eagles. Georgia State lost at home to a very weak Charlotte team.
Both teams have pretty good offenses, but Georgia Southern has a far superior passing attack (314 ypg vs. 205 ypg). As a matter of fact, by most measures, they are the better team overall. I see value in taking the better team, and taking the points. Put me down for the Eagles.
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Georgia southern +2.5 GEORGIA STATE
In order for Georgia State (1-4) to cover this spread, they have to win the game. Of the 31 published computer rankings so far, Georgia Southern (3-2) is ranked higher in 28 of these computers. The Eagles have already beaten 1 team (Nebraska) better than Georgia State and they have handily beaten another team (Ball State) which is on par with the Panthers. The Eagles gave undefeated Coastal Carolina their toughest game of the year. Coastal beat Georgia State by 17 points, but eked out a 4 point win over the Eagles. Georgia State lost at home to a very weak Charlotte team.
Both teams have pretty good offenses, but Georgia Southern has a far superior passing attack (314 ypg vs. 205 ypg). As a matter of fact, by most measures, they are the better team overall. I see value in taking the better team, and taking the points. Put me down for the Eagles.
The Bulls are recovering from a near miss of Hurricane Ian. The kids are back on campus and getting late night dorm room action. There’s no question that going up to Ohio to square off with the Bearcats is a tall task, but the Bulls have already played two tough teams (Florida and BYU) and didn’t fare badly against them, losing by an average score of 40.5 – 24.5. That would be enough to cover this contest. Last week against a decent ECU team, South Florida moved the ball well compiling 455 yards including 253 yards passing. That’s enough offense to lead you to believe that the back door cover would be alive in this game. With a road trip to SMU to look ahead to, the Bearcats may be holding their horses.
Offensively, Cincinnati has been fantastic, but defensively they have been good but not great, allowing 23 points per game against FBS teams. That means if the Bulls put up 23, Cincinnati will need to find a way to score 51 points to cover which is something they have only done once in 5 games. South Florida has outscored their opponents in the 2 half in 4 of their 5 games so when Cincinnati is sending their JV players out on the field, the Bulls will be looking for the end zone. Last week, The Bulls scored on their first three drives in the final 30 minutes.
Don’t be fooled by South Florida’s 1-4 record. They have the nation's 25th most difficult non-conference schedule, and their experienced team consists of returning almost all starters on offense and defense. Coach Scott is on the hot seat and a non-competitive game this week might just get him fired. This is way to many points to lay and think comfortably against this offense that has some speed on their roster. Grabbing the points here, and expecting some offense from the Bulls this week.
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south florida +27 CINCINNATI
The Bulls are recovering from a near miss of Hurricane Ian. The kids are back on campus and getting late night dorm room action. There’s no question that going up to Ohio to square off with the Bearcats is a tall task, but the Bulls have already played two tough teams (Florida and BYU) and didn’t fare badly against them, losing by an average score of 40.5 – 24.5. That would be enough to cover this contest. Last week against a decent ECU team, South Florida moved the ball well compiling 455 yards including 253 yards passing. That’s enough offense to lead you to believe that the back door cover would be alive in this game. With a road trip to SMU to look ahead to, the Bearcats may be holding their horses.
Offensively, Cincinnati has been fantastic, but defensively they have been good but not great, allowing 23 points per game against FBS teams. That means if the Bulls put up 23, Cincinnati will need to find a way to score 51 points to cover which is something they have only done once in 5 games. South Florida has outscored their opponents in the 2 half in 4 of their 5 games so when Cincinnati is sending their JV players out on the field, the Bulls will be looking for the end zone. Last week, The Bulls scored on their first three drives in the final 30 minutes.
Don’t be fooled by South Florida’s 1-4 record. They have the nation's 25th most difficult non-conference schedule, and their experienced team consists of returning almost all starters on offense and defense. Coach Scott is on the hot seat and a non-competitive game this week might just get him fired. This is way to many points to lay and think comfortably against this offense that has some speed on their roster. Grabbing the points here, and expecting some offense from the Bulls this week.
One would have to be a friggin lunatic to bet against the mighty Dawgs, right? Having said that, let’s go to the video tape. Yes it’s true that Georgia is 5-0 and arguably one of the best teams in the country. But that doesn’t mean you go about laying 28 points willy nilly and expect to get to the pay window. In the four games that UGA has played against FBS competition, they’ve only covered this line twice. Now it is true that Penn State was able to beat Auburn by 29 points but if you look closely at that game, you’ll note that Auburn was -4 on turnovers that game and had 415 yards of offense vs. 477 for PSU. They also had 23 first downs in that game to only 17 by the Nittany Lions. So the punch line here is that Auburn is not an easy cover. In fact, other than the PSU game, the Auburn defense has only allowed an average of 17 points per game. Georgia’s offense did not look impressive at all against the first decent defensive team they faced this season, Missouri, and Stetson Bennett looked like a sputtering mess – missing open receivers when faced with a little pressure. UGA’s star defensive tackle Jalen Carter left the Missouri game with a bad knee and he’s probably toast this week.
It's just a matter of time as to when Bryan Harsin is fired at Auburn, but a win or a big scare at Georgia may be what the doctor ordered. Their freshman QB Ashford Ashford moved the ball consistently against a very good LSU's defense last week. War Eagle should have pulled that one out despite their four turnovers. A clean game against Georgia will keep this contest within 2 scores and if Auburn can get into double digits, the cover is likely. It doesn’t matter how good Georgia is (or isn’t). This is a ginormous amount of points to lay against a good team. War Eagle!
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Auburn +28 GEORGIA
One would have to be a friggin lunatic to bet against the mighty Dawgs, right? Having said that, let’s go to the video tape. Yes it’s true that Georgia is 5-0 and arguably one of the best teams in the country. But that doesn’t mean you go about laying 28 points willy nilly and expect to get to the pay window. In the four games that UGA has played against FBS competition, they’ve only covered this line twice. Now it is true that Penn State was able to beat Auburn by 29 points but if you look closely at that game, you’ll note that Auburn was -4 on turnovers that game and had 415 yards of offense vs. 477 for PSU. They also had 23 first downs in that game to only 17 by the Nittany Lions. So the punch line here is that Auburn is not an easy cover. In fact, other than the PSU game, the Auburn defense has only allowed an average of 17 points per game. Georgia’s offense did not look impressive at all against the first decent defensive team they faced this season, Missouri, and Stetson Bennett looked like a sputtering mess – missing open receivers when faced with a little pressure. UGA’s star defensive tackle Jalen Carter left the Missouri game with a bad knee and he’s probably toast this week.
It's just a matter of time as to when Bryan Harsin is fired at Auburn, but a win or a big scare at Georgia may be what the doctor ordered. Their freshman QB Ashford Ashford moved the ball consistently against a very good LSU's defense last week. War Eagle should have pulled that one out despite their four turnovers. A clean game against Georgia will keep this contest within 2 scores and if Auburn can get into double digits, the cover is likely. It doesn’t matter how good Georgia is (or isn’t). This is a ginormous amount of points to lay against a good team. War Eagle!
Harsin is a dead man walking which you did state but I see Georgia responding after its close win vs missouri so we will probably be on opposite sides of this one
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@iamhuge
Harsin is a dead man walking which you did state but I see Georgia responding after its close win vs missouri so we will probably be on opposite sides of this one
@iamhuge Harsin is a dead man walking which you did state but I see Georgia responding after its close win vs missouri so we will probably be on opposite sides of this one
Very reasonable assumption. We will see if it's Kirby Smart or Kirby Dumb. Good luck.
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Quote Originally Posted by shakey12381:
@iamhuge Harsin is a dead man walking which you did state but I see Georgia responding after its close win vs missouri so we will probably be on opposite sides of this one
Very reasonable assumption. We will see if it's Kirby Smart or Kirby Dumb. Good luck.
I love the East Carolina Pirates when they are getting points. I love them more when they are playing a fraudulent favorite like Tulane. Tulane is like the little girl with the curl. Victories over Houston and K State then a golden shower at the hands of Southern Siss. The Pirates are on a role, notching 48 points on South Florida enroute to a 20 point victory with QB Holton Ahlers throwing for 465 yards and six touchdowns. Overall, the Pirates netted 575 yards of offense with 27 first downs. Don’t sleep on these guys. Houston had no trouble moving the ball against Tulane, and one would expect that ECU will have similar success. For the season, Ahlers has thrown for 1,532 yards (306.4 ypg), completing 68.6% of his passes with 15 touchdown passes and only three interceptions. Ahlers is a certified stud. And has been the Pirates’ full-time starting quarterback for four consecutive years. Why are we talking so much about quarterbacks? It’s because Tulane doesn’t have one…and that’s pretty important. Their starter, Michael Pratt, missed the last game with a shoulder injury and he’s questionable for the ECU game. His backup got hurt last week and the redshirt freshman, Kai Horton, had to fill in for him. If Pratt’s injury is a throwing shoulder issue as reported, it’s going to be tough for him to throw accurately. So either way, ECU is going to have a huge advantage at the QB position.
ECU should have beaten NC State. Specials teams errors cost them the game. The Navy game was a wet fart, but other than that, these Pirates have been rock solid. Against Navy, the Pirates were able to hold their ground attack to 2.9 yards per carry, so they should be effective against Tulane as well which, once again, puts the game in the hands of the Tulane QB, whomever it may be. Tulane only managed to run the ball for 3.0 yards per carry against Houston and they could be in deep doo doo if they can’t rely on the run against ECU. ECU and Houston are ranked about the same but ECU is playing much better and Houston is fading. Remember, Tulane needed OT to beat the Cougars.
Last year, ECU scored 52 points on Tulane. Tulane’s defense looks good on paper, but two of their five games were against UMASS and Alcorn State. If you take those two games away, Tulane is giving up a little more than 20 points per game – still good but not rock solid. It’s a big game for two evenly matched teams vying for the upper echelon of the AAC. When it’s a big game, it’s important to have a QB you can rely on and it’s always good to be getting points. Aye Aye Matey…give me the Pirates and the points.
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East Carolina +3 TULANE
I love the East Carolina Pirates when they are getting points. I love them more when they are playing a fraudulent favorite like Tulane. Tulane is like the little girl with the curl. Victories over Houston and K State then a golden shower at the hands of Southern Siss. The Pirates are on a role, notching 48 points on South Florida enroute to a 20 point victory with QB Holton Ahlers throwing for 465 yards and six touchdowns. Overall, the Pirates netted 575 yards of offense with 27 first downs. Don’t sleep on these guys. Houston had no trouble moving the ball against Tulane, and one would expect that ECU will have similar success. For the season, Ahlers has thrown for 1,532 yards (306.4 ypg), completing 68.6% of his passes with 15 touchdown passes and only three interceptions. Ahlers is a certified stud. And has been the Pirates’ full-time starting quarterback for four consecutive years. Why are we talking so much about quarterbacks? It’s because Tulane doesn’t have one…and that’s pretty important. Their starter, Michael Pratt, missed the last game with a shoulder injury and he’s questionable for the ECU game. His backup got hurt last week and the redshirt freshman, Kai Horton, had to fill in for him. If Pratt’s injury is a throwing shoulder issue as reported, it’s going to be tough for him to throw accurately. So either way, ECU is going to have a huge advantage at the QB position.
ECU should have beaten NC State. Specials teams errors cost them the game. The Navy game was a wet fart, but other than that, these Pirates have been rock solid. Against Navy, the Pirates were able to hold their ground attack to 2.9 yards per carry, so they should be effective against Tulane as well which, once again, puts the game in the hands of the Tulane QB, whomever it may be. Tulane only managed to run the ball for 3.0 yards per carry against Houston and they could be in deep doo doo if they can’t rely on the run against ECU. ECU and Houston are ranked about the same but ECU is playing much better and Houston is fading. Remember, Tulane needed OT to beat the Cougars.
Last year, ECU scored 52 points on Tulane. Tulane’s defense looks good on paper, but two of their five games were against UMASS and Alcorn State. If you take those two games away, Tulane is giving up a little more than 20 points per game – still good but not rock solid. It’s a big game for two evenly matched teams vying for the upper echelon of the AAC. When it’s a big game, it’s important to have a QB you can rely on and it’s always good to be getting points. Aye Aye Matey…give me the Pirates and the points.
I love betting on Air Force games but this season they don’t love me. This is the week I get it right. Air Force is 4-1 and the 73 computers in the Massey Composite have this team ranked #53. Utah State with a record of 1-4, on the other hand, is complete ass and is in the lower echelon of college football ranked #111. Air Force destroyed Northern Iowa by 31 points in its opener and Utah State is ranked only 5 points better than Northern Iowa in the Sagarin index. That’s an Air Force cover. Air Force then punched out in state rival Colorado by 31 points. Colorado is also only ranked 5 points lower than Utah State. That’s another Air Force cover. Then Air Force inexplicably lost to Wyoming. However, it was discovered after the fact that 40 members of Air Force’s team were sick that week and 5 starters were out of the game. So let’s leave that game out. The following week, Air Force smashed Nevada by 28 points and Utah State is ranked only 3 points better than Nevada on the Sagarin Index. That’s another Air Force cover. Last week Air Force beat Navy by only 3 points, but those commander in chief trophy games are always an anomaly.
Turning to Utah State, they opened the season by beating Connecticut. Big whoop. Who doesn’t beat Connecticut. Then they lost all of the rest of their games: to Bama by 55, Weber State by 28, UNLV by 10 and BYU by 12. Do you see the pattern here? Utah State cannot cover 9 points against anyone. Air Force is averaging 33 points per game and their defense has let up only 15 points per game. They are averaging 370 yards per game rushing at a clip of 6.3 yards per carry. Truth be told a number of the Air Force wide receivers are injured or will be missing game action. Who cares? They never throw the ball anyway. Utah State has only scored 18 points per game and is giving up 36 points per game.
Against Utah State, UCONN ran the ball for 6.3 yards per carry. UCONN!!? Bama ran the ball for 8.7 yards per carry. I shudder to think about what Air Force will do with their option attack against the Aggies. The Aggies are 97th in total defense, 108th in rush defense and 120th in scoring defense. Oh by the way, Utah State’s starting QB, Logan Bonner, is out for the season. They will be facing Air Force with their backup QB who is completing only 19 of 31 passes for 188 yards so far. That’s not good enough, despite what Fisher Deberry said about his monochromatic secondary. Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Utah State will have problems holding onto the football and the short fields will lead to a double digit first half lead for the Falcons. Their defense will not let the game get close. It makes sense to go with the chalk in this game and lay the wood on the road. Air Force wins by at least 20.
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Air force -9 UTAH STATE
I love betting on Air Force games but this season they don’t love me. This is the week I get it right. Air Force is 4-1 and the 73 computers in the Massey Composite have this team ranked #53. Utah State with a record of 1-4, on the other hand, is complete ass and is in the lower echelon of college football ranked #111. Air Force destroyed Northern Iowa by 31 points in its opener and Utah State is ranked only 5 points better than Northern Iowa in the Sagarin index. That’s an Air Force cover. Air Force then punched out in state rival Colorado by 31 points. Colorado is also only ranked 5 points lower than Utah State. That’s another Air Force cover. Then Air Force inexplicably lost to Wyoming. However, it was discovered after the fact that 40 members of Air Force’s team were sick that week and 5 starters were out of the game. So let’s leave that game out. The following week, Air Force smashed Nevada by 28 points and Utah State is ranked only 3 points better than Nevada on the Sagarin Index. That’s another Air Force cover. Last week Air Force beat Navy by only 3 points, but those commander in chief trophy games are always an anomaly.
Turning to Utah State, they opened the season by beating Connecticut. Big whoop. Who doesn’t beat Connecticut. Then they lost all of the rest of their games: to Bama by 55, Weber State by 28, UNLV by 10 and BYU by 12. Do you see the pattern here? Utah State cannot cover 9 points against anyone. Air Force is averaging 33 points per game and their defense has let up only 15 points per game. They are averaging 370 yards per game rushing at a clip of 6.3 yards per carry. Truth be told a number of the Air Force wide receivers are injured or will be missing game action. Who cares? They never throw the ball anyway. Utah State has only scored 18 points per game and is giving up 36 points per game.
Against Utah State, UCONN ran the ball for 6.3 yards per carry. UCONN!!? Bama ran the ball for 8.7 yards per carry. I shudder to think about what Air Force will do with their option attack against the Aggies. The Aggies are 97th in total defense, 108th in rush defense and 120th in scoring defense. Oh by the way, Utah State’s starting QB, Logan Bonner, is out for the season. They will be facing Air Force with their backup QB who is completing only 19 of 31 passes for 188 yards so far. That’s not good enough, despite what Fisher Deberry said about his monochromatic secondary. Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Utah State will have problems holding onto the football and the short fields will lead to a double digit first half lead for the Falcons. Their defense will not let the game get close. It makes sense to go with the chalk in this game and lay the wood on the road. Air Force wins by at least 20.
What’s wrong with being offended? When did stick and stones may break my bones stop being relevant? Isn’t that what you teach children? He called me an idiot! Don’t worry about it, he’s a dick.
Now you have adults going “I was offended, I was offended and I have rights!” Well so what, be offended, nothing happened. You’re an adult, grow up, and deal with it. I was offended! Well, I don’t care! Nothing happens when you’re offended. Similarly, nothing happens when the New Mexico Lobos are on offense. That’s right, nothing happens. The Lobos are averaging 15 points per game against FBS competition. In their 3 losses, they are averaging 11 points per game. New Mexico is 2-3 so far this year and Wyoming is 3-3. The Cowboys have played a much tougher schedule than the Lobos have, having already squared up with Illinois, Tulsa, Air Force, BYU and SJSU.
If New Mexico’s quarterback isn’t getting sacked, he’s usually throwing an interception. Their passing attack (if you can call it that) ranks sixth-worst in the FBS. On the ground, the Lobos are averaging only 3.4 yards per carry. If you don’t include their game against Maine, they are averaging only 2.86 yards per carry against FBS schools. New Mexico ranks third-worst among FBS schools in total yards per game (244.8). When the Lobos are on offense, the officials holding the chains can go get coffee. New Mexico is producing a 25.8% third-down conversion percentage, ranking them #126. Wyoming throttled the Air Force triple option and New Mexico will also try to run their read option and is unlikely to find any success.
This is going to be a low scoring game, but don’t laugh. Wyoming has the best kicker in the Mountain West. That will be meaningful on Saturday night. 70 of the 73 computers on the Massey Composite have Wyoming ranked higher than New Mexico and the composite has Wyoming ranked #86 with New Mexico down at #115. Who am I to argue? I’m riding with the Cowboys as they go down to Albuquerque and come back with a win AND a cover.
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Wyoming -3.5 NEW MEXICO
What’s wrong with being offended? When did stick and stones may break my bones stop being relevant? Isn’t that what you teach children? He called me an idiot! Don’t worry about it, he’s a dick.
Now you have adults going “I was offended, I was offended and I have rights!” Well so what, be offended, nothing happened. You’re an adult, grow up, and deal with it. I was offended! Well, I don’t care! Nothing happens when you’re offended. Similarly, nothing happens when the New Mexico Lobos are on offense. That’s right, nothing happens. The Lobos are averaging 15 points per game against FBS competition. In their 3 losses, they are averaging 11 points per game. New Mexico is 2-3 so far this year and Wyoming is 3-3. The Cowboys have played a much tougher schedule than the Lobos have, having already squared up with Illinois, Tulsa, Air Force, BYU and SJSU.
If New Mexico’s quarterback isn’t getting sacked, he’s usually throwing an interception. Their passing attack (if you can call it that) ranks sixth-worst in the FBS. On the ground, the Lobos are averaging only 3.4 yards per carry. If you don’t include their game against Maine, they are averaging only 2.86 yards per carry against FBS schools. New Mexico ranks third-worst among FBS schools in total yards per game (244.8). When the Lobos are on offense, the officials holding the chains can go get coffee. New Mexico is producing a 25.8% third-down conversion percentage, ranking them #126. Wyoming throttled the Air Force triple option and New Mexico will also try to run their read option and is unlikely to find any success.
This is going to be a low scoring game, but don’t laugh. Wyoming has the best kicker in the Mountain West. That will be meaningful on Saturday night. 70 of the 73 computers on the Massey Composite have Wyoming ranked higher than New Mexico and the composite has Wyoming ranked #86 with New Mexico down at #115. Who am I to argue? I’m riding with the Cowboys as they go down to Albuquerque and come back with a win AND a cover.
Good news is Will Levis is flying up the NFL draft boards. Bad news is he is questionable for Saturday against the Gamecocks with either a concussion, a sprained ankle, a messed up finger or all of the above. That’s what happens when you bet early, as this line has dropped considerably from where I bought it. But I’m not going to be a gigantic box about it. I still like this bet. Why?
Levis doesn’t play defense, and the Wilcats have played the 39 toughest schedule in football and their defense has only yielded 14.8 points per game. South Carolina, on the other hand, has only played 2 games against teams ranked above 100 and in those games they have lost by the average score of 46-18. Their defense stinks and good teams have run well against them. Crod is going run all over the Gamecocks at home as this will be a statement game for him as he finally returns fully to the Wildcat lineup. Last year he ran for 139 yards and three touchdowns against the Gamecocks.
How’s that Spencer Rattler Heisman watch going by the way? He has thrown four touchdown passes and seven picks. The Kentucky defense is ready to handle the erratic Rattler, they are tied for third in the FBS in fewest passing touchdowns allowed (two) and rank 17th in passing yardage against (173.6 yards per game). Last week, Kentucky gave a very good Ole Siss team everything it could handle and nearly won the game. Their defense is up for the challenge and it’s likely that, without Levis, Stoops is putting it on the defense to put the hammer down in this home game. Yes the 10.5 looks scary right now, but the home team is the far better team and we can guarantee that Rattler will throw a late game interception that will preserve the double digit lead for the ‘Cats. Lay the wood for the home team.
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KENTUCKY -10.5 south Carolina
Good news is Will Levis is flying up the NFL draft boards. Bad news is he is questionable for Saturday against the Gamecocks with either a concussion, a sprained ankle, a messed up finger or all of the above. That’s what happens when you bet early, as this line has dropped considerably from where I bought it. But I’m not going to be a gigantic box about it. I still like this bet. Why?
Levis doesn’t play defense, and the Wilcats have played the 39 toughest schedule in football and their defense has only yielded 14.8 points per game. South Carolina, on the other hand, has only played 2 games against teams ranked above 100 and in those games they have lost by the average score of 46-18. Their defense stinks and good teams have run well against them. Crod is going run all over the Gamecocks at home as this will be a statement game for him as he finally returns fully to the Wildcat lineup. Last year he ran for 139 yards and three touchdowns against the Gamecocks.
How’s that Spencer Rattler Heisman watch going by the way? He has thrown four touchdown passes and seven picks. The Kentucky defense is ready to handle the erratic Rattler, they are tied for third in the FBS in fewest passing touchdowns allowed (two) and rank 17th in passing yardage against (173.6 yards per game). Last week, Kentucky gave a very good Ole Siss team everything it could handle and nearly won the game. Their defense is up for the challenge and it’s likely that, without Levis, Stoops is putting it on the defense to put the hammer down in this home game. Yes the 10.5 looks scary right now, but the home team is the far better team and we can guarantee that Rattler will throw a late game interception that will preserve the double digit lead for the ‘Cats. Lay the wood for the home team.
When I first saw this line, I was like “mind blown”. If Clemson was hosting Army at home, everyone would be pounding the table for Clemson as a 2 touchdown favorite. Well, the punchline here is that Wake Forest is every bit as good as Clemson is. They are…they really are. They proved it when they played them to OT in Death Valley.
The fact of the matter is that the Demon Deacons are a powerful offensive team and the Cadets defense is just plain offensive. Army is 0-3 against FBS schools this year and their defense has given up 37 points per game against those teams. We’re talking decent opponents (Georgia State, Coastal Caroline and UTSA) but nothing with the firepower of Wake Forest and Sam Hartman and his core of receivers. Wake is averaging 300 yards per game passing and the Army secondary is going to look like pieces on a chessboard trying to cover the Wake receivers and Clawsen’s offense. It gonna be ugly early. There’s a very good chance that Wake Forest doesn’t punt this entire game.
Will Army move the chains on offense running the triple option? Yes they will. But there is not way they will be as effective moving the ball as Wake Forest will. Last year, Wake scored 70 points against Army and this year’s Cadet squad is not nearly as good. The fact that Wake went on the road against a very good FSU team last week and beat them handily should be evidence enough that this week’s game is going to be a joke. Their offense is ranking 17th-best in the FBS with 40.4 points per game and they have played some legit teams. The West Point defense is ranked 101st with 413.0 total yards given up per game. Army lost by 17 points to Georgia State. They have already proven that covering this spread won’t be easy for them. Wake Forest’s run defense isn’t bad, holding opponents to only 135 rushing yards per game. Once Army gets behind, they will have to get away from the triple option and throwing the ball for them is a comedy of errors.
There really aren’t many scenarios where this game stays close since it’s not reasonable to assume that Wake Forest is going to struggle on offense – the weather forecast is for a clear and cool night with very light winds. We will see a bunch of tight spirals from Hartman. The hardest thing for him will be to decide on which open receiver to chuck it to. The Demon Deacons in a rout.
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WAKE FOREST -15 army
When I first saw this line, I was like “mind blown”. If Clemson was hosting Army at home, everyone would be pounding the table for Clemson as a 2 touchdown favorite. Well, the punchline here is that Wake Forest is every bit as good as Clemson is. They are…they really are. They proved it when they played them to OT in Death Valley.
The fact of the matter is that the Demon Deacons are a powerful offensive team and the Cadets defense is just plain offensive. Army is 0-3 against FBS schools this year and their defense has given up 37 points per game against those teams. We’re talking decent opponents (Georgia State, Coastal Caroline and UTSA) but nothing with the firepower of Wake Forest and Sam Hartman and his core of receivers. Wake is averaging 300 yards per game passing and the Army secondary is going to look like pieces on a chessboard trying to cover the Wake receivers and Clawsen’s offense. It gonna be ugly early. There’s a very good chance that Wake Forest doesn’t punt this entire game.
Will Army move the chains on offense running the triple option? Yes they will. But there is not way they will be as effective moving the ball as Wake Forest will. Last year, Wake scored 70 points against Army and this year’s Cadet squad is not nearly as good. The fact that Wake went on the road against a very good FSU team last week and beat them handily should be evidence enough that this week’s game is going to be a joke. Their offense is ranking 17th-best in the FBS with 40.4 points per game and they have played some legit teams. The West Point defense is ranked 101st with 413.0 total yards given up per game. Army lost by 17 points to Georgia State. They have already proven that covering this spread won’t be easy for them. Wake Forest’s run defense isn’t bad, holding opponents to only 135 rushing yards per game. Once Army gets behind, they will have to get away from the triple option and throwing the ball for them is a comedy of errors.
There really aren’t many scenarios where this game stays close since it’s not reasonable to assume that Wake Forest is going to struggle on offense – the weather forecast is for a clear and cool night with very light winds. We will see a bunch of tight spirals from Hartman. The hardest thing for him will be to decide on which open receiver to chuck it to. The Demon Deacons in a rout.
It seems like everyone is pouring Hatorade on the Iowa Hawkeyes these days, but what’s wrong with a little defense? It seems inexplicable that Iowa should be the underdog in this contest. The fighting Crylini are 4-1 this season, but Iowa will easily be the best team they have played all season. Their victories over Wyoming, Virginia and Wisconsin look kind of meh in hindsight. Iowa, on the other hand, has been remarkably consistent on defense. In their 3 wins, they have given up an average of 4.2 points per game. It's really hard to cover 4.5 points when the defense you are facing only gives up 4.2 points per game. Illinois’ offense has been good, but not great. This entire game might be played with only one touchdown scored between the two teams.
The Hawkeyes have won this game for the last 8 times they have played it. Iowa found a way to throw the ball against Michigan last week, going 21 for 31 through the air for 7.9 yards per throw against the Wolverine defense. This should open up things for them this week as well, especially with the bye week coming up. You can be very confident that the Iowa defense will be unrelenting, which makes the points very tantalizing. -owa’s defense ranks third nationally in scoring defense (10.0), fifth in defensive TDs (2), sixth in team passing efficiency defense (98.66), seventh in total defense (254.4), 12th in passing yards allowed (161.6), 13th in rushing defense (92.8), and 21st in red zone defense (.727).
Illinois’ Chase Brown is the nation's leading rusher with 733 yards and there is no secret about at least what Illinois is going to try to do. Illinois runs the ball a lot, but they also have a propensity to put the ball on the ground and the Hawkeyes are well known for their hard tackling. Illinois will do a lot of run blitzing, but that could set them up to get burnt one or two times, and that might be all that is needed in this sure to be low scoring affair. Illinois will no question be overconfident after the victory last week over Wisconsin, which the Badgers handed to them. The Hawkeye defense is superior to Wisconsin’s. The Badgers lost eight defensive starters, were put in tough field positions and only surrounded 300 total yards of offense. Illinois’ win was not as convincing as one would gather from the first look. The Hawkeye’s are going to be like Pretty Boy Larry Sharp and say “watch this one” as they shutdown the Fighting Crylini. These points will be precious, and I’m grabbing them!
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Iowa +4.5 ILLINOIS
It seems like everyone is pouring Hatorade on the Iowa Hawkeyes these days, but what’s wrong with a little defense? It seems inexplicable that Iowa should be the underdog in this contest. The fighting Crylini are 4-1 this season, but Iowa will easily be the best team they have played all season. Their victories over Wyoming, Virginia and Wisconsin look kind of meh in hindsight. Iowa, on the other hand, has been remarkably consistent on defense. In their 3 wins, they have given up an average of 4.2 points per game. It's really hard to cover 4.5 points when the defense you are facing only gives up 4.2 points per game. Illinois’ offense has been good, but not great. This entire game might be played with only one touchdown scored between the two teams.
The Hawkeyes have won this game for the last 8 times they have played it. Iowa found a way to throw the ball against Michigan last week, going 21 for 31 through the air for 7.9 yards per throw against the Wolverine defense. This should open up things for them this week as well, especially with the bye week coming up. You can be very confident that the Iowa defense will be unrelenting, which makes the points very tantalizing. -owa’s defense ranks third nationally in scoring defense (10.0), fifth in defensive TDs (2), sixth in team passing efficiency defense (98.66), seventh in total defense (254.4), 12th in passing yards allowed (161.6), 13th in rushing defense (92.8), and 21st in red zone defense (.727).
Illinois’ Chase Brown is the nation's leading rusher with 733 yards and there is no secret about at least what Illinois is going to try to do. Illinois runs the ball a lot, but they also have a propensity to put the ball on the ground and the Hawkeyes are well known for their hard tackling. Illinois will do a lot of run blitzing, but that could set them up to get burnt one or two times, and that might be all that is needed in this sure to be low scoring affair. Illinois will no question be overconfident after the victory last week over Wisconsin, which the Badgers handed to them. The Hawkeye defense is superior to Wisconsin’s. The Badgers lost eight defensive starters, were put in tough field positions and only surrounded 300 total yards of offense. Illinois’ win was not as convincing as one would gather from the first look. The Hawkeye’s are going to be like Pretty Boy Larry Sharp and say “watch this one” as they shutdown the Fighting Crylini. These points will be precious, and I’m grabbing them!
AAAAAAAH Treeee! I love Tree when they are getting points. I love Tree when they are home. I love Tree when they are home getting points. I love Tree when they are home getting points and facing a backup quarterback.
Everyone jumped on the Beaver train when they beat Boise State in week 1. Then Boise State lost to UTEP. Since then, Oregon State has proven their fraudulence by eking out a 3 point win against a Fresno team that lost to UCONN. Last week the Beavers got destroyed by Utah…without a fight. The Utah player’s multiple wives could have come in and mopped up that game.
The Cardinal will be facing their weakest FBS opponent this season. They don’t have any wins to show for their efforts against Washington, USC and Oregon but a bowl game is still within reach and they need to get it going this week at home. Their offense is still potent, averaging 29.5 points per game and that’s what makes the 7 point spread particularly attractive. Oregon State is 80th in scoring defense as they allow an average of 27.2 points per game this season, so there is no reason to expect that Stanford won’t put up at least 27 points.
Oh…so Oregon State will be on the road in the frenzied environment of Stanford fans drunk on Pinot Noir and will need to trot out their backup quarterback who only has 15 completions with 25 attempts this season and he already has thrown 2 picks. The Beavers offense also sorely misses stud tight end Luke Musgrave, who led the team in receptions through two games before suffering an injury. The Beavers do not travel well and they are just 1-9 in their last 10 league games. They can’t cover 7 points if they can’t win the game. Stanford has the better quarterback, passing at a 64.5% clip and averaging 245 yards a game with eight touchdowns and four interceptions. He’s a pro prospect. The Oregon State defensive line ranks 120th in Sack Rate. Playing at home will make an even wider difference between the performance of these two guys under center.
No one, including me, is going to watch this game. But this is a must win game for Stanford if they want to be in a bowl game in December. We’ll wake up tomorrow and see if we cashed. AAAAAAH Tree! Taking the points….AAAAAAH!
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STANFORD +7 oregon state
AAAAAAAH Treeee! I love Tree when they are getting points. I love Tree when they are home. I love Tree when they are home getting points. I love Tree when they are home getting points and facing a backup quarterback.
Everyone jumped on the Beaver train when they beat Boise State in week 1. Then Boise State lost to UTEP. Since then, Oregon State has proven their fraudulence by eking out a 3 point win against a Fresno team that lost to UCONN. Last week the Beavers got destroyed by Utah…without a fight. The Utah player’s multiple wives could have come in and mopped up that game.
The Cardinal will be facing their weakest FBS opponent this season. They don’t have any wins to show for their efforts against Washington, USC and Oregon but a bowl game is still within reach and they need to get it going this week at home. Their offense is still potent, averaging 29.5 points per game and that’s what makes the 7 point spread particularly attractive. Oregon State is 80th in scoring defense as they allow an average of 27.2 points per game this season, so there is no reason to expect that Stanford won’t put up at least 27 points.
Oh…so Oregon State will be on the road in the frenzied environment of Stanford fans drunk on Pinot Noir and will need to trot out their backup quarterback who only has 15 completions with 25 attempts this season and he already has thrown 2 picks. The Beavers offense also sorely misses stud tight end Luke Musgrave, who led the team in receptions through two games before suffering an injury. The Beavers do not travel well and they are just 1-9 in their last 10 league games. They can’t cover 7 points if they can’t win the game. Stanford has the better quarterback, passing at a 64.5% clip and averaging 245 yards a game with eight touchdowns and four interceptions. He’s a pro prospect. The Oregon State defensive line ranks 120th in Sack Rate. Playing at home will make an even wider difference between the performance of these two guys under center.
No one, including me, is going to watch this game. But this is a must win game for Stanford if they want to be in a bowl game in December. We’ll wake up tomorrow and see if we cashed. AAAAAAH Tree! Taking the points….AAAAAAH!
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on your plays @iamhuge 
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