INDIANA -5 nebraska
I want you to close your eyes and don’t look at the jerseys. This isn’t your Daddy’s Indiana team and this certainly isn’t your granddaddy’s Nebraska team. Remember back the day, you were asked: "You know what the "N" stands for on the side of the Nebraska football helmet?"
"It stands for Knowledge".
Ha ha ha ha. What’s actually really funny is that Nebraska is 5-1 so far this season. That’s really good…puts them right on top of the Big 10. The bottom line is, they haven’t done anything yet. Look at 4 of their 5 wins…UTEP, Northern Iowa, Purdue, Rutgers? Is this a joke? Ok..they did play well against Colorado and Coach Prime. They haven’t yet played against a team as good as Indiana, and the only game they played against a team that might be as good – Illinois – they lost. Nebraska’s defense is good…only giving up 11.3 points per game, but their offense is kind of meh. They don’t run the ball that well, only averaging 3.9 yards per carry. You know what happens when you can’t run the ball on the road? You lose…that’s what happens. Their QB play has been decent, but they really don’t get the ball downfield at all and are unable to stretch defenses. Against decent teams, they are averaging only 23 points per game.
Indiana is home. Indiana is undefeated. Their defense is actually very good also – as the Hoosiers have given up only 14.3 points per game, that’s 11 in the country. What really makes Indiana shine is that they score points…a lot of them. The Hoosiers are averaging 47.5 points per game. That’s really spectacular and they have been able to score a lot of points against the 3 best teams they have played. They beat UCLA on the road 42-13. They beat Maryland 42-28 and they beat a stingy Northwestern defense, which has held teams to 19 points per game, on the road by the score of 41-24. The Hoosiers racked up 529 yards (380 passing) and 27 first downs in the win. They have not scored less than 31 points all season. Their QB, Kurtis Rourke, is performing at Heisman levels, as he has completed 73.8% of his passes for 10.9 yards per attempt with 14 TD’s against only 2 interceptions. That’s good for 2 in the country in QB passer rating. They have done a good job also pounding the rock, at 5.1 yards per carry. They rank second in the nation in points scored per game.
Nebraska has scored more than 28 points only once against FBS teams…and that was against UTEP who is more like a D3 team. Nebraska quarterback Dylan Raiola was flat-out ass last week against Rutgers (13 for 28). Indiana’s defense is better than Rutger’s defense. They suck in the red zone. They're 108th in Finishing Drives, averaging only 3.2 points per scoring opportunity. Their starting kicker is listed as “questionable” for the game and the backup kicker is only 1 for 5 this year. Indiana has just too much firepower to be playing at home with this skinny point spread. There is no evidence at all that Nebraska is the better team. Why? Because they aren’t. I’m on the Hoosiers!
north texas +11 MEMPHIS
Who can possibly forget the interviews when The Iron Sheik and Gene Okerland got together? I always loved the way the sheik always said Gene's name backwards as "Gene Mean". Sheik was definitely one of the best at promos. Hilarious stuff. Not to be outdone, the North Texas Mean Green certainly is underestimated in this contest. This team is 5-1 on the season. Yes, very impressive. Having said that, they haven’t beaten anyone yet and when they did play a good team, they kind of got crushed by Texas Tech. The 66-21result of that smoting is misleading as the Mean Green was able to put up 353 yards of offense but suffered 3 turnovers, which quenched their point output. Speaking of offense, North Texas has been formidable. They are averaging 40.8 points per game. That’s not the kind of offense you want to be laying 11 points to. That’s a back door as big as the Lincoln tunnel. The Mean Green has some teeth also. In their victories, they laid the wood to Tulsa, Wyoming and South Alabama…winning these games by an average of 24 points per game. North Texas is completing 65% of its passes and averaging 5.2 yards per carry…they can move the chains in the air and on the ground. They are seventh in the nation in points per game this year, and third in yards per game. Memphis does have a decent defense, but the Mean Green is going to put up points. North Texas is fourth in the nation in passing yards per game. Memphis allowed over 200 yards per game passing this year and is 100th in the nation in opponent red zone scoring.
Memphis is not as good as Texas Tech…not even close. So putting that Texas Tech game aside, the lowest point scoring total that North Texas has posted has been 35 points. That means Memphis would need to score 47 points to cover. That’s a tall task since Memphis is only averaging 31 points per game and North Texas will arguably be the 2 best team that the Tigers will have faced this far. Turning to Memphis, the Tigers are also 5-1 this season. So this is a meaningful American Athletic Conference game. Winning is paramount, perhaps taking risk to run up the score is not. Memphis likes to run the ball…that will shorten the game. It will be hard to run away from a team like North Texas with that much offense in a game with limited possessions. North Texas can score and can score quickly. If you’re laying points in this game, there’s no way you rest easy until you see 0:00. I’m all over this live road dog with the potent passing attack. Give me the Mean Green +11.
notre dame -8.5 GEORGIA TECH
After a nice win over a questionable North Carolina team, the Yellow Jackets are home against a very powerful Notre Dame squad. Not since the days when George “The Liar” O’Leary went from Georgia Tech to Notre Dame has this game brought so much attention to Atlanta. Remember, Rudy got that sack against Georgia Tech, but he really was offsides. Notre Dame comes in after defoliating Tree last week by 42 points. Whether or not Georgia Tech is better than some of the teams that ND has convincingly vanquished is hard to say. The Irish have already covered this single digit spread over Texas A&M, Purdue, Miami (OH), and Stanford. It’s hard to say that the Yellow Jackets are much better than any of these teams. Furthermore, ND beat Louisville by a touchdown, but the game really wasn’t that close and, earlier in the season, the Cardinal put Georgia Tech to sleep by the score of 31-19, Furthermore, they are playing this game in the Benz stadium so one can imagine that it will be packed with a lot of subway alumni pulling for the Irish.
The Yellow Jackets only go as far as QB Haynes King can take them. The problem is, King’s availability is an unknown for Saturday’s game. He’s been banged up the last couple weeks, and he sustained some sort of shoulder injury that resulted in him missing the end of last week’s win against UNC. They will be in trouble whether he plays hurt or doesn’t play at all. You don’t have to look very far past the ND defense, which is only giving up 11.7 points per game. Superstar DL for the Irish, Howard Cross III, is finally healthy and will solidify the run defense. GT will not be able to throw the ball consistently because Notre Dame is impossible to pass on. The Irish pass defense is ranked tops in the country. Power ratings have ND at 6 and GT at 40. That’s a pretty big difference between teams when the spread is only 8.5. Surprisingly, ND is ranked #2 in the country in running explosiveness. That means they are going to bust a couple. The Irish have the superior athletes so one would think they will be able to wear down the Yellow Jackets. ND runs away with a 20 point victory.
usc -7.5 MARYLAND
The way Maryland lost last week to Northwestern is like a shit stain in white underwear that you can never get rid of….there’s no way I can forget it. So when I see USC only giving 7.5 to them, it seems like a real headscratcher. USC is only 3-3 this year and likely has no shot at the CFP, but they are only 13 points away from being undefeated. They lost a game at Michigan that they should have won and Penn State was lucky to beat them in OT. The Minnesota game was a debacle due to 3 turnovers and giving up the winning TD with less than a minute to play. Their QB Miller Moss was supposed to be the 2 coming…now he hasn’t lived up to those expectations but he has been serviceable, completing 64% of his throws. The Trojans also run the ball well, good for 5.5 yards per carry. The story this season for USC has been the exceptional play of their defense, giving up only 20.5 points per game.
The real reason I like USC is the way that they beat LSU on a neutral site on week 1 and then trashed a very solid Wisconsin team by the score of 38-21. They have played, and survived, a really tough schedule and, other than Utah State, Maryland will be the worst team they have faced thus far this season.
What about the Terps? There isn’t much to love about them. They lost to a bad Michigan State team and lost by 14 to Indiana. The Hoosiers and the Trojans are ranked about the same by the computers. Then of course is last week’s 27 point loss to Northwestern. In their 3 losses, the Terps are averaging only 20 points per game, so if USC can score 30, they will cover. Sparty scored 27 on Maryland and Indiana scored 42. Maryland doesn’t run the ball well, so there is no chance of them limiting USC’s number of possessions. The Maryland O-line is kind of a train wreck right now and on top of not being able to open any holes, they are having trouble protecting their QB which means they can’t throw the ball downfield. On the other hand, USC won’t have such problems because Maryland’s corners can’t cover anyone even if they threw a blanket on them. Maryland ranks 109th in pass yards allowed per game. The weather in College Park is going to be pretty nice and expect to see Miller Moss tossing wherever he can find single coverage to his tall receivers.
There are several reasons to think that USC is a good team and there are an equal number of reasons to think that Maryland isn’t very good. That adds up to a road cover by the Trojans.
iowa -6 MICHIGAN ST
I have tried really really hard to look at Sparty and try to assimilate in their portfolio of work some degree of evidence that this is a good team. There is not one shred. Handicapping objectively, you have to ignore the FAU and Prairie View games because they don’t mean squat. In their other 4 contests, Michigan State is 1-3. Their 3 point win over Maryland gives them 74 power points. Their 4 point loss to an average BC team gives them 67 power points. Their 31 point loss to The Ohio State is worth 62 power points and finally their 21 point loss to the Ducks is worth 68 power points. Averaging all these games together gives them a value of 68 power points.
Turning to the Hawkeyes, they are just playing great. We’ll throw out their blowout wins over Troy and Illinois State, leaving them at 2-2 in their other 4 games. Their 1 point loss in the Cyhawk tilt against Iowa State is worth 85 power points. Their 17 point win over Minnesota, a much better team than Sparty, is worth 93 power points. Their 28 point loss to The Ohio State is worth 65 power points. Their 24 point victory over the Huskies is worth 99 power points. Average up these games and you get a value for the Hawkeyes of 86. Based on this handicapping alone, Iowa is 18 points better than Michigan State. Take 4 points away for being on the road and I see Iowa as a 14 point favorite in this game.
Now back in the day, people were afraid to lay point with the Hawkeyes as a favorite, simply because their offense was incapable of scoring. But it’s a lot different this year. Iowa is averaging 29 points per game, a lot better than last year’s team that only put up 15 points per game. Michigan State has struggled with the ball, having exceeded 20 points only once against FBS competition this season. Iowa still prefers to run the ball, but they have done well on the ground averaging 5.8 yards per carry. QB McNamara has been serviceable, completing 63% of his passes against some very good defenses. The Hawkeyes have put up at least 31 points in 4 of 6 games this season and the Spartans happen to be one of the weaker defensive units they have faced.
Michigan State’s offense, in comparison has floundered as they only have averaged 3.8 yards per carry and their QB play has been shaky, throwing 8 interceptions with only 5 TDs and getting sacked 13 times already this season. The Hawkeyes have had four turnover-free games out of six and created 11 takeaways on defense. Rushing offense and rushing defense looks like a Hawkeye strength in this one. The Hawkeyes have the 12th-best ground attack in the country and Sparty has not been sound against the run. The Ducks boat raced them for 200 yards on the ground in Sparty’s last game. Kaleb Johnson for Iowa is licking his chops. He is averaging 7.94 yards per carry — third in the nation — while his 12 rushing touchdowns are fourth.
This game has traditionally been a rock fight, but not this time. Michigan State will struggle on offense and won’t know how to play catch up in the second half. The stout Iowa D will close the back door and secure the cover in this road victory.
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