Maryland +18.5 OHIO ST
Those who ignore history are destined to repeat it. Is there any question at all that last year’s Ohio State team led by CJ Stroud that came within a hair of winning the Natty is far superior to this year’s Ohio State team? There can’t be any argument. Is there any doubt that this year’s Maryland team, at 5-0, is a much better squad than last year’s 8-5 team? Well here’s news. Last year when Ohio State and the Terps teed off, the final score was 43-30. With one second left in the game, the score was 36-30 when Maryland fumbled the ball into its own end zone. The point here is that last year’s phenomenal Buckeye squad couldn’t cover this enormous 18.5 point spread against last year’s inferior Maryland team.
This year’s Maryland team under Baby Tua has some serious offense…a lot of it. They are averaging 39 points per game and 455 yards per game. Baby Tua has been off the charts, with a QBR of 160, he has completed 66% of his passes for 13 TDs against only 3 interceptions. Ohio State’s Kyle McCord has been efficient but Coach Day has been keeping him under wraps. The Buckeyes are coming off of a bye week after securing the big bounty win over Notre Dame. This week is going to be a “get better” week for Ohio State and its likely they will look to their defense and their ground game to keep the prolific Maryland offense on the sideline. This is especially important given that their explosive wideouts Marvin Harrison, Jr, Kyion Graves and Joop Mitchell are nursing injuries and they certainly do not want to have to rely on them.
Common opponents? Both Ohio State and Maryland have played Indiana this year. Ohio State won 23-3 and Maryland won their tilt more convincingly with the score of 44-17. The Terps have not played a strong schedule yet, but they have dominated against Power 5 opponents Virginia and Sparty. Ohio State has not shown enough offensive firepower to cover this spread, scoring only 17 against Notre Dame and the aforementioned 23 against Indiana. Ohio State’s defense is good, but not necessarily elite. There aren’t many scenarios where one could conjure that Maryland scores less than 14 points. That means that the Buckeyes will need to notch 33 points to cover against Maryland while only one team has scored 20 points against them this year.
It’s just too many points with not much incentive for the Buckeyes to run it up. They are going to try to shorten the game and get out of there with the Dub. Taking the Terps and ALL of those points!
Love your angle here....BUT....what prevented me from taking the next step is the fact that Buckeyes at home vs road is like a LEVEL 7.5 vs a LEVEL 9 or 10 team most of the time and when it comes to high level athletes, that can mean a blowout and if you look at their head to head during the last 5 games , Buckeyes blow away Terps at home and last year's defense was terrible for the Buckeyes, but not this year!
I laid off and will probably regret....good luck and will watch with interest and support!
UNC -8.5 syracuse
I gotta tell you. Earlier in the season I was one of the biggest marks for Syracuse, Dino Babers and their QB who looked like he could do it all. I bet big on them against Purdue and they covered, and I was strutting around the Caesars sportsbook in Atlantic City like Brutus the Barber Beefcake with my balls hanging out after the bet. While I did spend a great deal of time watching the game, it wasn’t until I looked at the box score that I realized that Syracuse was fraudulent. That’s right, peel back the orange peel and you got nothing. Purdue fumbled the ball 7 times that game. That’s why they lost. Their QB was able to throw the ball for 32 for 46 and 323 yards. They Syracuse pass defense is horrible and now they are up against the Tar Heels stud Drake Maye who is completing 73% of his passes and a Rating of 154.7. It’s going to be fireworks for the Tar Heels.
The rest of Syracuse schedule is pure garbage. They beat Colgate and Western Michigan…who else hasn’t? In their one tough game against Clemson, they got completely bitch slapped. Schrader had a terrible day, and they couldn’t run the ball. They won’t be able to run the ball against UNC either. The Tar Heels have held their opponents to only 3.7 yards per carry. You know what happens when you can’t run the ball on the road? You lose…that’s what happens.
Syracuse has some injury woes. Star junior receiver Oronde Gadsden II and redshirt sophomore offensive lineman David Wohlabaugh Jr. are out for the remainder of the season and redshirt junior receiver Isiah Jones is also out. On the other hand, UNC is getting back OL Willie Lampkin and starting WR Gavin Blackwell. Both teams have tough look ahead games – Syracuse has FSU and UNC has The U. So not much advantage to either side with that one.
North Carolina is battle tested and undefeated, having played a tough schedule consisting of South Carolina, App State, Minnesota and Pitt. They are coming off a bye week and playing at home. They are scoring 36 points per game and have only given up 22 points per game. So it appears they won’t have any issues sizing up Syracuse at home. Drake Maye isn’t just good…he’s NFL good. He alone will be the difference maker in the game and the reason why UNC will get a double digit cover. Against Pitt, UNC got off to a really slow start but completely neutralized the Panthers in the second half. North Carolina has won seven of its last eight home games in October. Drake Maye will be able to do whatever he wants and Syracuse in a middle of brutal gauntlet of games and they will go down to Chapel Hill and play like they are feeling sorry for themselves. I expect Schrader to be reckless with the ball and UNC will win the turnover battle. Breaking it down. UNC is home. UNC has the superior QB. UNC has the superior coach. UNC has the superior defense. Easy cover for the home favorites.
Kent st +26 OHIO
If you’re a fan of the Massey Ratings composite when you do your handicapping, then you love looking at data. If you did, you’d see that the 83 computers have the Ohio Bobcats ranked at 56 and the Kent State Golden Showers all the way down at 131. This disparity alone would make Ohio a 19 point favorite at home. So just based on that, there is value for the underdog. What’s actually more interesting is that although the power rating certainly justifies the difference in these two teams…4-1 Ohio and 1-4 Kent…and if any other two teams were playing with this differential, we would certainly acknowledge that a 20+ point spread is justified. But not in this case. Why?
I watched a very aggressive and vicious Ohio team defense completely manhandle a Power 5 Iowa State team and hold them to 38 yards rushing. Ohio is ranked number 2 in the country in rushing defense, holding its opponents to only 1 rushing TD, 2.95 yards per carry and only 66 yards per game. Conclusion? You cannot run the ball against Ohio. What happens when you can’t run the ball on the road? You lose. Will the Kent State Golden Showers be able to run the ball against Ohio? Nope. Will the Kent State Golden Showers lose on Saturday? Yep. Do I care? Nope.
Why I am I picking Kent State? The answer is because Ohio doesn’t score. They couldn’t find the end zone if they had a guide dog. They are averaging 21 points per game. That’s not enough to cover a 26 point spread. If you exclude their game against Soylent Green (where they scored 38 points against a team that plays defense only occasionally), they Bobcats are averaging only 17 points per game. Now the Golden Showers don’t score much either, but in fairness to them the 4 teams that they have played are all better than Ohio (UCF, Arkansas, Miami OH and Fresno St). In those 4 losses, they were able to manage 6 points per game – so if they hit their average against the Bobcats then Ohio is going to be pressed to score 33 points to cover. They couldn’t do it against LIU or FAU. In fact they have only scored 33 points more than once this season – that’s 20% of their games. In the five games they have played thus far, the Golden Showers have been pretty good at protecting the football having only given up 3 turnovers. They have been ultra conservative on offense, which is pretty stupid when it comes to trying to win ballgames but when you’re getting 26 points against a team that doesn’t score, who cares? I’m taking the points and the road dogs.
RICE -10 uconn
Does anyone remember the good old days when both UMASS and UCONN were in the Yankee Conference and they would only play other teams from New England on their schedule. People actually cared about the results of those games and any unfinished business and bragging rights would be settled on Cape Cod in the parking lots of Pufferbellies and The Mill Hill during happy hour. Actually, that’s where all of the players used to live and “train” over the summer as they worked jobs as bouncers and doormen. You’re only job was to not get too hung over after you get hammered so you could find your socks and jock strap and go work out after lunch.
Well, it’s not like that anymore. There is no glory in playing for 0-5 Connecticut who is ranked at number 192 in Division 1 football, tucked right between Portland State and Fresno City College. After an inspiring home opener loss to NC State, the Huskies have tucked their tails and lost home games to FIU and Utah State. Now they must travel all the way to Houston to play the Rice Owls – some rivalry eh? The results of this game might show up in the small print of the Hartford Courant next to the story of the dog who sadly stepped the fallen live power line with the headline “Bow Wow Ow”. Coach Jim Mora Jr. was asked about his team’s chances for the playoffs….I wonder what his Dad would say? PLAYOFFS? PLAYOFFS??
In their only other road game, UCONN couldn’t cover this 10 point spread getting pummeled by Georgia State 35-14. This season their offense is only averaging 17 points per game so it will require a strong effort by their defense to keep this game close, as the Rice Owls are averaging 33 points per game and UCONN will easily be the weakest team Rice faces this season. The Huskies enter this week 111th in the FBS in passing offense with 185.6 yards per game through the air while they are 92nd in rushing offense. In other words, it’s not easy for them to put up points. They only scored 17 at home against FIU which was the fewest points allowed by FIU this year against any FBS team. Heck, pathetic New Mexico State scored 34 against FIU.
UCONN is ranked 113th in scoring defense by allowing 31.6 points per contest. The Owls are 13th in the nation in passing offense with 307 yards per contest. The weather in Houston is going to be perfect for passing…moderate winds and temperatures. UConn has surrendered eight touchdown passes against two picks so far this season. The Owls will find open receivers from QB JT Daniels. Daniels previously played for USC and Georgia, winning the CFP National Championship with the latter as a backup to Stetson Bennett. Honestly he would have been the starter at both schools, but he kept getting hurt. This is no doubt going to be an NFL tryout game for him. Remember this is a Rice squad that has already played Texas, South Florida and beaten Houston. This is going to feel like a workout against their scout team. UCONN’s porous pass defense yields over 13 yards per completion and over 8 yards per attempt. That’s going to be the story of the game as Daniels keeps chucking it all over the yard and will wear out the weary Huskies. Rice is in the hunt for first place in Conference USA. UCONN will be hunting for the plane ride back to Storrs. Give me the home favorite Owls.
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