tulane -16.5 CHARLOTTE
On vacation and I forgot the game was tonight. Charlotte big step up in competition. 3 of their 5 losses have been by more than 16.5 points and all 3 of these losses were to teams not as good as Tulane (Navy, UNC and JMU). Charlotte loses because their defense sucks, giving up 34.5 points per game. Tulane is loaded on offense, averaging 40.5 points per game and when they play bad teams, they run up the score. QB Mensah is a phenom and is having a great season, completing more than 64% of his passes for 14 TD's and only 3 interceptions. Tulane can also pound the rock whenever they want, to take control of this game and close out Charlotte - they get 5.0 yards per carry.
The Green Wave will have this spread covered by halftime. I'm on the road favorite tonight
MISSISSIPPI STATE -18 umass
Why are they even playing this game? We need more COWBELL! The Massholes have to get on a plane and land in Starkville and they will be looking at each other and going WTF?? It doesn’t matter what Umass thinks. They are ranked 133 out of 134 FBS teams. They have yet to win an FBS contest. They lost to Buffalo by 31 points and lost to Missouri by 42 points. They are averaging less than 14 points per game against FBS competition.
The Bulldogs, however, have also not won an FBS game this year. This season is a lost cause, no doubt. They are an SEC embarrassment. But this is a home game, and a game they are clearly going to win. But will they cover? It’s hard to say, since they haven’t won an FBS game yet. However, the computers think this will be a cakewalk. How so?
Mississippi State beat Eastern Kentucky in week 1 by the score of 56-7. The genius Jeff Sagarin has UMASS and EKU ranked virtually identical. So if MSU is 49 points better than EKU, that’s quite a cushion over an 18 point spread over a team ranked identical to EKU. That’s not good news for the Minutemen. At the end of the day, there is a huge differential in talent. UMass is 113th in total offense and 122nd in scoring offense. UMass is also 104th in scoring defense. The Bulldogs will be loose and playing with confidence which should translate to points…points that UMass will be unable to match. Loving the home favorites against a very very bad football team.
Ucla +6.5 NEBRASKA
It’s really easy to overlook UCLA in this contest, because of their 2-5 record but look at the teams they have lost to: Indiana, LSU, Oregon, Penn St and a close one to Minnesota. Three of those five losses are to teams that are still undefeated. UCLA had a bye week last week and has found its offense, putting up a lot of points in its victory over Rutgers the last time they suited up. That’s why I’m loving getting the points here.
Nebraska has an offense problem and is averaging less than 13 points per game in their last three contests. Their QB loves to get sacked, having hit the dirt 17 times already this season and he has tossed 4 picks in the last 2 games. Also, they can’t run the ball, averaging only 3.7 yards per carry. UCLA does a very good job at stopping the run. In order to cover this spread, they will need to score 28 points and its doubtful that they can do this.
Nebraska will be without defensive back Hartzog, who injured his hamstring in the fourth quarter of last week's game. UCLA QB Garbers completes 64% of his passes so look for him to exploit the JV backup. Nebraska's passing defense is their weakest link, and they have been picked apart all season by teams with efficient passing attacks. This is going to be a low scoring game, which makes covering the spread by the favorite even more difficult. I’ll take the points anytime in a close contest. On the underdog Bruins.
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