I AM HUGE (3-3 YTD 50%) WEEK 3 PICKS AND ANALYSIS

Bearcats easily cover 27-16 despite getting 2 TDs taken off the board.  They dominated this game. 1-0 on the week. 

Both Tulane and Purdue getting ass handed....hope the back door has a crack.

FRESNO ST -20.5 new mexico state

There’s not a lot here to crow about when it comes to Fresno State, other than the fact that they are home.  They beat New Mexico State last year in a bowl game by 27 points.  

New Mexico State is not as good this season as they were last season, I mean let’s face it – they aren’t going bowling this year.  In Week 1, they played SE Missouri State from the FCS and they got pushed around, trailing going into the final period even though they ended up with a   23-16 victory getting the go ahead and winning TD with less than 2 minutes left in the game (at home).  Conspicuous in that game is that NMSU ran the ball 49 out of 72 plays but only managed 4.3 yards per carry.  That’s not really good for a run heavy team against an FCS school.  Why do they always run the ball?  Because they can’t throw that’s why.  They are ranked in the bottom 5 in the FBS in passing efficiency.  Their QB, Parker Awad, plays like a wad that should have ended up in someone’s sock.  On the season he is 14 of 40 for 195 yards passing.  That’s a 35% completion rate.  He’s also been sacked 6 times in those 40 attempts.  Let it be known that New Mexico State cannot pass the ball..at all.

Fresno State, on the other hand, loves to chuck it.  It’s going to be perfect weather in Fresno.  Their QB, Mikey Keene is 46 for 71 for 593 yards and a 64.8% completion rate.  That includes their first game against mighty Michigan when he completed 61% of his throws.  New Mexico State’s pass defense is straight up ass.  If they can’t cover, they blow coverages.  Liberty was able to run the ball against New Mexico State for 217 yards and 6.2 yards per crack, so it’s likely that Fresno State will be able to keep the Aggies defense off balance between the run and the pass.  The Aggies have allowed 4.9 yards per carry for the season.  The only reason that the Liberty game was close was because of the horrendous number of penalties (11 for 122 yards) committed by the Flames.

Now, 20.5 is a big number to cover, but when you’re up against a team that cannot throw then the come from behind scenario is a non factor.  New Mexico State has lost each of its last eight road openers and has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five road openers.  On Thursday, the Bulldogs were invited to join the Pac-12 with three other MWC schools in 2026.  The Bulldogs had the Wolverines worried in week 1,  a one-score game with 10 minutes left.  New Mexico State will feel like the JV in this home field celebration.  Bulldog bulldog bow wow wow.  Laying the wood on Fresno.

Purdue not a very good pick

Doh...Tulane giving up the late meaningless fieldgoal...

Both Tulane and Purdue are D E D.....1 - 2 on the week

Baylor easily covers but Southern Miss cannot keep up with South Florida....2-3 on the week

BYU is a belly laugher....if Tulane had cooperated, it could have been a good week.  Come on Fresno!

This Fresno game is making me laugh so hard, I sissed myself

BYU covers....3-3 on the week.  Still all mad at the Green Wave!

Fresno has 350 yards in the first half and is running the ball for 9.1 yards per carry...did New Mexico State leave one of their buses behind?

This game is taking too long. Fresno is gonna cover.   4-3 on the week. 7-6 YTD ATS 54%.   Going to Caesars in AC next weekend for some Sportsbook fun.  Picks for week 4 soon. 

3rd and 1 and they pass.....

down 5 and driving....

picked off...

Had them plus 14.5 bought a point....

had it not been for Tulane it would have been a nice week.  But I’ll take 4-3. 

hey man - followed a few of your picks!  Thanks bro.  Tulane was a bummer

Trend I'm spotting is betting against big underdogs who can't throw (Air Force, New Mexico, Wyoming) because once far behind they can't catch up.

@iamhuge

 yeah oklahoma scoring was a big surprise in the 1st half.  They went back to being who we thought they were 2nd half.  Little too late by that point