I am HUGE Official Vegas Week NCAA wk 5 picks....with write ups (14-6 YTD 70%)

Notre Dame – 22 over Miami OH – "I've got to go, Rock. It's all right. I'm not afraid. Some time, Rock, when the team is up against it, when things are wrong and the breaks are beating the boys, ask them to go in there with all they've got and win just one for the Gipper. I don't know where I'll be then, Rock. But I'll know about it, and I'll be happy."

I’m not sentimental enough to claim that Touchdown Jesus needs to go out and win one for the Gipper but they better damn well get their fools up for this game so that I can make a money fan when I go to the pay window.  Pay that man his money!

Frankly, I normally don’t bet on ND because everyone bets on them, especially when they play a weak sister .  To be fair, the Redhawks are actually scrappy this year and they have a very good quarterback.  However, when you look at Notre Dame’s body of work, you have to start to believe that they are a really good football team and that their sophomore quarterback is certainly learning his role.  So…let’s cut to the chase.

Is Notre Dame going to win this game?  Of course they are.  Are they going to cover?  Let’s ask their coach:  Now you're facing a MAC team. Yes, they've been to the bowl, but how do you avoid your kids allowing for a trap game or a letdown? BRIAN KELLY: Yeah, so it's kind of what I talked about. We've only built one mindset. It's to dominate our opponent. 

As I always like to say, if you are the inferior team and you go on the road, you better be able to run the ball to give your defense a break.  Notre Dame certainly can run the ball, as they have averaged 294 yds per game (6.8 yds per carry) in their 4 tilts.  On the other hand, the Redhawks struggle in that category, only moving the ball on the ground 118 yards per game or a paltry 3.5 yards per carry.  When juxtaposed against the Fighting Irish tough run defense and physical front, Miami is going to have a lot of 2^nd and 3^rd and longs.  That won’t work against a ball hawking defense like ND which has been forcing 2.25 turnovers per game.

Let’s break down Notre Dame’s season so far with premise that Miami’s power rating on the road is 58:

Week 1:  Obliterated Temple..a team rated higher (63) than Miami…..by the score of 49-16.   A 33 point cover. 

Week 2: Lost 20-19 to Georgia (rating 89) (a game they could have easily won).    Notable here is that Notre Dame scored 19 points against Georgia…more than any other team has scored against Georgia this year.  That sets a floor for how many points they will score against Miami.  In the two games Miami lost, (to Marshall and Cincinnati) they gave up an average of 26 points.  It’s very reasonable to assume ND will easily score 33 points.  By the way, one can easily argue that Georgia wouldn’t beat Miami by at least 23. So why shouldn’t Notre Dame.

Week 3:  Notre Dame beats BC 49-20.  BC (power rating 64) is another team that is rated higher than Miami and Notre Dame covered the 22 points again…winning by 29.

Week 4:  Notre Dame goes on the road and beats Michigan State (power rating 76 ) 38-18, which included a late TD from Sparty otherwise they would have closed the book at 38-10.    Notre Dame’s performance last week would have netted them a cover against Miami OH.

If you look at Miami’s season, sure they are playing well – but they haven’t played a team in the top 100 yet (losses to Marshall and Cincinnati and wins against Austin Peay and Central Michigan).  They only scored 17 points in the loss to the Bearcats, so it’s unreasonable to assume they will score more than that against Notre Dame. 

So let’s be nice and give Miami 14 points in this game.  Will Notre Dame score 37 points to cover?  The fact that Miami won’t be able to run the ball and burn clock to spell their defense means that the brutal Notre Dame running attack will wear out their defense and make tackling their physical backs, including their quarterback, very difficult.  The fact that Notre Dame scored 49 against Temple, 49 against BC and 38 against Central Michigan tells me – YES!  I am laying the wood and polishing up my Golden Dome, singing the fight song and cheering the Gipper – Give me 11 units on Notre Dame laying 22 points.

Mississippi State +9.5 at AUBURN  - going on the road to Auburn is never easy and the Tigers have dug graves in that sod for many a Bulldog team over the years.  Having said that, something seems awry with this line and I expect a much more competitive Bulldog team which is led by the efficient junior QB Nick Fitzgerald.    

In order to cover, Auburn has to win this game.  When I look at Auburn’s resume I see a 3-1 record.  But the only time they played a team as good or better than Mississippi, they lost (to Clemson 14-6).  The game was closer than it should have been.  Clemson fumbled the ball over twice and Auburn only netted 117 yards of offense for the whole game.  That’s not a very impressive game against the big boys.  Other than that, Auburn has been kind of “meh”.  Sure, they punished Georgia Southern 41-7 but Georgia Southern lost to FCS New Hampshire and Indian punished them 52-17….Indiana.  The next week, Auburn shat themselves against Mercer winning by only 24-10. The only Mercer school I know is Mercer County Community College.  Then last week, Auburn lit up Missouri by the score of 51-14.  I guess the computers must have loved this, but everybody beats Missouri like a drum (South Carolina beat them by 18 and Purdue beat them by 32).  On top of that Mizzou turned the ball over 4 times so the score should have actually been much closer in their loss to Auburn.  So, to summarize.  Auburn hasn’t beaten anybody.  Now they have to play somebody.

What about that Somebody?  Well, Miss State has to decide who they are this week.  Are they the wrecking machine that took away LSU’s manhood by the score of 37-7 or are they the chumps who got kicked to the curb by Georgia 31-3.   MSU outgained the LSU 465-270 and just dominated the Bayou Bengals.  Let’s get one thing straight.  Auburn is good and they also have a very good defense, but they aren’t as good as Georgia and their defense isn’t nearly as good as Georgia’s defense.  This week Auburn has a DB and an LB (stud Tre Williams – shoulder) on the injury shelf.   So it’s safe say we’re not going to see the Bulldogs get spanked 31-3 again this week.   Auburn is better than LSU…but not a whole lot better.  LSU has beaten Syracuse and LSU.  Auburn, as indicated earlier, has beaten no one.  So I am inclined to think that Saturday’s game is going to be a lot more like the LSU game and a lot less like the Georgia game. 

The fact that Miss St is averaging 37 points per game and banking 440 yards per game is comforting when all you are looking to do is lose by less than 10 points.  You know what, the Bulldog’s defense isn’t too bad either.  They are only giving opponents 3.2 yards per carry and this Auburn team really has not been able to establish the run at all (averaging 4.2 yards per rush vs. Miss St 6.1 yards per carry). Mississippi State has a very aggressive attacking front 7.    Remember these stats are compiled on Auburn’s ridiculously light 4 game schedule of patsies (other than Clemson of course).

Mississippi State is 4-1 ATS in its last five games against Auburn.  I like the fact that the Bulldogs so some real iron last week while Auburn played a Pop Warner team.  I also like the fact that a proud program usually bounced back from a bad game.    The only time Auburn played a team ranked higher than 100, they lost.  The Bulldogs are 2-1 this season against Top 100 teams.   Mississippi State might not win this game, but like Tommy Lee Jones said to Harrison Ford in The Fugitive, “I don’t care.”   I'm thinking it should be an old fashioned ugly SEC West 17-13 type game either way.  I say Go Dawgs.  I’m taking the points  for 11 units, thinking that Auburn won’t find the endzone more than twice.

UCF -3.5 over Memphis - Following these Florida teams has been quite a mystery and UCF is no exception.  This game was supposed to be the season opener, but both teams rearranged their schedules so that they could square off here in week 5.  Since the hometeam is favored by a field goal, that means that the world thinks these two teams are even.  Memphis is 3-0 and UCF is 2-0.  The punch line is, UCF is the better team.

UCF is averaging 50 points per game on offense but on the other side of the ball, the Liars are also a top-15 defensive team.  Their aggressive style of play has generated seven tackles for loss and three turnovers per game.   The Memphis Tiger defense is more like Snagglepuss as they are ranked 117th in yards allowed per game.   They have been strutting around like Brutus the Barber Beefcake because they won a home game against a mediocre UCLA team.  Meanwhile Josh Rosen atoned himself by passing all over them for 463 yards and 4 TDs on 34/56 passing.

Offensively, the teams are similar as Memphis has averaged 43 points in its 3 victories.  Other than UCLA, Memphis defeated Louisiana Monroe by 8 points and FCS Southern Illinois by 13 points.  Not exactly world beaters.  UCF lit up FIU for 61 points.  What’s notable here is that FIU limited its other two opponents to only 8.5 points per game.    In their other game, UCF smashed Maryland on the road by the score of 38-10.  Remember, Maryland also scored 51 points against Texas.  The one caveat to this score is that Maryland lost their QB in the UCF game and had to finish it with their 3^rd string QB.    So, I need to be careful with this result.

Anyway, Memphis likes to lead a balanced attack but UCF’s ability to stuff the run (only giving up 2.8 yds per carry) may result in pressure on the Memphis QB.  Speaking of quarterbacks, I think UCF’s McKenzie Milton is a poor man’s Baker Mayfield.  He’s a poised and tough kid who makes great throws.  He’s completing passes with 67% accuracy and has only thrown 1 interception against 5 TDs.  Speaking of offense, UCF’s running back – Darrell Henderson – is averaging 9.1 yards per carry and 172 yards rushing per game.

Memphis will need to bring a MASH unit with them to this road game.  The Tigers already were banged up entering Saturday night's game against the Southern Illinois. And they lost even more players to injuries as the game progressed.  Linebacker Curtis Akins, right tackle Roger Joseph and safety Shaun Rupert were among those who missed time Saturday because of injuries. At one point, the Tigers were playing without eight or nine of their projected defensive starters entering the season.  Even if most of them suit up, they won’t be 100%.

This will be the Knights first home game in a month due to Hurricane Irma and one can expect this game to be cathartic for the Orlando area.  But the most important thing here is the difference in the defenses.  Memphis is giving up 484 yds per game and UCF is only giving up 266 yds per game.  That’s a big difference when you’re home and only laying a field goal.  After this game, UCF is going to challenge the Tiger’s Mickey Mouse defense and knock Memphis Goofy -  sending them to Pluto.  I am going to lay the 3.5 points and watch the Knights slay the toothless Tigers.  11 Units on the George O’Leary Liars!

washington -27 at OREGON STATE – Whenever I go on my annual Vegas trip, you always hope that the stars will align and there will be a total eclipse of the sun and that the rarest of occasions will make an appearance and there will be one college game out of 52 that will earn the exclusive title of RUBBER BAND game.   This time it hit me on the head like the bowling balls that fall off of the top shelf during every awesome episode of The Three Stooges.

Now it’s not the world’s biggest secret that Washington is a very good team.    They are better than last year’s team that made the national semifinals and actually made a very good account of themselves, representing the Pac 12 faithfully.  They have a fantastic defense, only giving up 4 offensive touchdowns in 4 games.  The Huskies are holding their opponents to an average of 11.8 ppg on 274.0 total yards per game.   In fact they are a top 10 team in dozens power rating services.  Their experienced quarterback, Jake Browning is completing passes at a 70% clip.  They are undefeated and ranked in nearly everybody’s top 10. 

So Washington is a great team…how good?  They have played 3 games against teams that are about as good or better than Oregon State (Rutgers, Montana, Fresno and Colorado) and outscored them by 16, 56, 32 and 27 points.  So, 3 out of 4 times they covered or pushed this big spread.  No team has scored more than 16 points.  So the math here is simple, if they score 44 points (16+27 – 43) then they should cover the spread in this game.  Ok…let’s look at Oregon State defense.

Oregon State sure plays defense like a bunch of beavers.  Their defense is giving up 47.5 points per game.  In fact, every team they have played has had their best offensive game against Oregon State.  (They have played teams ranked 72^nd, 191^st, 28^th and 27^th)  There is no reason to expect that Washington, a top 10 team,  won’t do the same. Why am I not worried about this 27 point spread?  In all of its FBS games, Oregon State has been outscored by 31, 34 and 29 points.  They haven’t shown that they can cover this spread at all…even against teams that aren’t nearly as good as Washington.

But wait..it only gets better.  Oregon State opened their season against Colorado St and got crushed by the score of 58-27, giving up 525 yards of offense.  Poor Colorado State lined up the next week against Colorado and got smoked by the score of 17-3.  That’s right, they scored 58 against Oregon State, and then only 3 points against Colorado.  Oh, you know that same Colorado team?  They took their undefeated record out to Washington and limped home losing 37-10.  You don’t need to know much more than this to know this is a ridiculous mismatch…..

But wait, there’s more.  Last week, Oregon State’s starting quarterback, Jake Luton, broke his back last week in their game against Wazoo.  Blech my spine!  That means Senior Darren Garrettson has to take the reins of this horror show of a team.    So far this year, he’s thrown 2 passes.  Garretson was a transfer from Utah State and he was beaten out by Luton who was a transfer from Idaho/JUCO.  Obviously Oregon State is not farming 5 star quarterbacks.  Anyway, last year Garretson played in 6 game and completed 50% of his passes for 4.2 yards per attempt with 4 picks and 3 TDs.  He was sacked 12 times…obviously he holds the ball and he’s not very mobile.  That’s how he got injured last year.    Wouldn’t it be Rocky-esque if he came in and knocked off Washington at home?  Keep dreaming.  This is a really really bad spot for Oregon State.  Their rushing average is terrible as it is gaining only 135 yards per game and they have to find a way to keep the ball away from Washington, who only gives up 100 rushing yards per game.  They are going to get behind early, and the pressure will be squarely on the shoulders of the 2^nd string quarterback. 

The Huskies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record and 14-6 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. The Beavers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.  Washington has a soft game at home next week against Cal, so the trap game scenario is not applicable. 

I am pulling the wad out of my pocket.  Not counting the money and wrapping a rubber band around it and bouncing it on the ticket window.  There’s no need to worry about how much is in that wad because you know you’ll be getting it back 2x in about 3 ½ hours.  I’m laying the 27 points on the Huskeys and I am going to howling at the moon in the Aria sportsbook at about 8:30 pm Vegas time when I whistle my way up to the pay window.  I won’t be able to bend my wallet on the way back!   Laying the wood, 27 points, on the Dogs for 18 units!  Wish me luck boys!

SUMMARY

Duke +6 vs Miami for 5 units

New Mexico State +16.5 vs Arkansas for 5 units

Buffalo -7 vs Kent for 4 units

Mississippi St +9.5 vs Auburn for 11 units

Notre Dame -22 vs Miami OH for 11 units

UCF -3.5 vs Memphis for 11 units

Washington -27 vs Oregon State for 18 units