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I can have 16 points BUT I don't need them!

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by wonwiththehook:

The ACC and every team in it are a JOKE !
 
Gators win this by at least 28 !!


The laugh is on the SEC this year
 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by Mazdaspeed:

Dear RidingDirty,

UGK called, they want you to stop dragging their coined phrase through the mud with your nonsense.


Thanks,

Bun and Pimp (RIP)




You drink too much
 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by samuelsosa:

I dont mind the pick considering you DO take the points. If you like the ML you must definitely love it with the points multiplied by 100.
 
Although I disagree on both the ML and the point spread, gl.


As I mentioned earlier I always take the points as insurance but I won't need this Saturday.
 
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Posted: #29
FSUDREW - You are a homer BUT a VERY smart man!


LOBOSRULE - Outside chance?  Let me correct you - STRONG CHANCE!  FSU moneyline has a great chance to cash and I pounded it and regardless of outcome I will have no regrets!
 
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Posted: #30
actually... i said there was an outside chance that FSU could cover... but there is no chance they will win...
 
but it's good you have no regrets...
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by lobosrule:

actually... i said there was an outside chance that FSU could cover... but there is no chance they will win...
 
but it's good you have no regrets...


  Have you started drinking already? There is a VERY GOOD chance they win this SU!
 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by ridingdirty:

Florida State Moneyline +as much as I can get


Are we talking the first quarter?

 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by GOTSTAKS:

Are we talking the first quarter?



1at quarter, 2nd quarter, halftime, 3rd quarter, 4th quarter, GAME! Doesn't matter!
 
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Posted: #34

Quote Originally Posted by ridingdirty:



  Have you started drinking already? There is a VERY GOOD chance they win this SU!

 

based on WHAT?  do you watch football?  there aren't 5 teams in CFB that have a VERY GOOD chance of beating Florida SU... there are only about 20 that have a MODERATE chance of beating Florida SU... Florida St falls into neither group... what are you thinking!?

 
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Posted: #35
this is your scoreboard...
 
-----------1--------2--------3--------4---
Fla   |  14       7       21       0   |  42
FSU |   0        7        3        7  |  17
 
 
bye bye money!
 
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Posted: #36
I respect your confidence but let's look at the Miami game for both of these teams...  FSU won by 2 ... 41-39.  Meaning that the FSU defense alowed 39 points by the "U".  Whereas Florida beat Miami 26-3. 
 
Now here's a scary statement...  Florida also has the best DEFENSE in SEC.  Nobody talks about it because they put up the points, Florida might very well outscore FSU on the OTHER side of the ball.
 
This bet reminds me of the blackjack dealer in Vegas Vacation... " Why don't you give me half of the money you were going to bet, we'll go out back, I'll kick you in the nuts and we'll call it a day"
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by lobosrule:

 

based on WHAT?  do you watch football?  there aren't 5 teams in CFB that have a VERY GOOD chance of beating Florida SU... there are only about 20 that have a MODERATE chance of beating Florida SU... Florida St falls into neither group... what are you thinking!?



My friend you are over-valuing the SEC this year!  Yes, Florida looks great BUT the SEC is NOT what it was!  This line is over-inflated for 2 reasons:  1. public perception that Florida is superior and 2. recent history suggests Florida domination HOWEVER, I uncovered some data that is very intriguing.  Florida State catches the Gators in a great spot - a double digit road fave and riding a minimum of a 3 game win streak against a huge rival.  Well, well, well did you know that teams in this spot have failed really bad!  In fact this has happened 7 times in the past decade and how many of those double digit faves do you think covered?  NONE! Even more interesting is the fave failed to cover the spread by an average of about 14 points per game.  With the line opening at 15 it tells me this game is virtually a pick and could come down to the wire thus making the moneyline a very good risk to take IMO. 
 
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Posted: #38
Also keep in mind both team beat Miami so bragging rights for the State of Florida are on the line.  This is big for recruiting!  Both teams will be playing hard and until the end as many recruiting prospects and NFL scouts will be present.
 
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Posted: #39
Your comparisons are so far off that it makes me laugh how ignorant you are being.  Yes both teams beat Miami, but UF didnt struggle with their win.  FSU plays in the ACC and havent faced a Defense anywhere near the caliber of Florida.  FSU's offense is dogshit even against crap teams, so how are they gonna score against one of the fastest D's in the country???

Good luck buddy, but unfortunately luck wont a factor on Saturday cause its gonna get nasty.  Florida rolls by 21
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by Diadora055:

Your comparisons are so far off that it makes me laugh how ignorant you are being.  Yes both teams beat Miami, but UF didnt struggle with their win.  FSU plays in the ACC and havent faced a Defense anywhere near the caliber of Florida.  FSU's offense is dogshit even against crap teams, so how are they gonna score against one of the fastest D's in the country???

Good luck buddy, but unfortunately luck wont a factor on Saturday cause its gonna get nasty.  Florida rolls by 21


I guess the same could be said for Florida.  The SEC is so grossly over-valued this year that it might be fair to say Florida hasn't even faced a quality opponent yet!
 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by GOTSTAKS:

I respect your confidence but let's look at the Miami game for both of these teams...  FSU won by 2 ... 41-39.  Meaning that the FSU defense alowed 39 points by the "U".  Whereas Florida beat Miami 26-3. 
 
Now here's a scary statement...  Florida also has the best DEFENSE in SEC.  Nobody talks about it because they put up the points, Florida might very well outscore FSU on the OTHER side of the ball.
 
This bet reminds me of the blackjack dealer in Vegas Vacation... " Why don't you give me half of the money you were going to bet, we'll go out back, I'll kick you in the nuts and we'll call it a day"

  first of all, special teams and turnovers gave miami there points. do some research.... The U scored 10 points off there def..

this reminds me of the kid in school that did not do his homework

 
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Posted: #42
And just how over-valued is the SEC?

ALABAMA #1

Bet against every SEC team in their respective bowl games! This will make you
 
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Posted: #43
GOTSTAKS - also remember that Florida scored a last second garbage TD in that game to make the score look worse than it was!
 
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Posted: #44
And by the way I am a season ticket holder and a BIG homer obviously....They do have a chance, unfortunatly a tiny chance, I don't even think we will cover. The SEC is not as good as they have been in the past,, But UF is, if not better,,,WAKE UP people...
 
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Posted: #45
The line is 161/2. That means if the game was in Gainesville the Gators would be about 24 point favorites. This is the most points FSU has been a dog in OVER 20 years
 
The first 15 minutes will tell you if FSU can stay in the game. The Gators have outscored opponents by 123-0 in the first quarter in their last 7 games.They have done it with offense, defense, and special teams.They have won their last 7 games by 28 or more points, which is an SEC record.They have to win to keep their chances alive to be in the BCS Championship game
 
I would compare this game to Super Bowl 3 when a 161/2 point dog Jets beat the Baltimore Colts.If FSU can survive the first quarter, that is their only chance
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by SEMINOLE317:

And by the way I am a season ticket holder and a BIG homer obviously....They do have a chance, unfortunatly a tiny chance, I don't even think we will cover. The SEC is not as good as they have been in the past,, But UF is, if not better,,,WAKE UP people...


I respect when homers go against their teams because it makes me feel more confident in my plays!
 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by jordyn31:

The line is 161/2. That means if the game was in Gainesville the Gators would be about 24 point favorites. This is the most points FSU has been a dog in OVER 20 years
 
The first 15 minutes will tell you if FSU can stay in the game. The Gators have outscored opponents by 123-0 in the first quarter in their last 7 games.They have done it with offense, defense, and special teams.They have won their last 7 games by 28 or more points, which is an SEC record.They have to win to keep their chances alive to be in the BCS Championship game
 
I would compare this game to Super Bowl 3 when a 161/2 point dog Jets beat the Baltimore Colts.If FSU can survive the first quarter, that is their only chance

best observation yet

 
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Posted: #48
ridingdirty -- I hope you do cash....
 
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Posted: #49

Quote Originally Posted by ridingdirty:



I respect when homers go against their teams because it makes me feel more confident in my plays!

sorry riding, spent many Sat in the stands wondering What happened to our hearts...they  just seem to have lost them,,look at suspensions, some have been suspended 2- 3 times, what does that say for there heads, WHAT THE HELL ARE THE THINKING....This team is full of Freshman and Sophmores, they will be  a top 5 team next year and for years to come, IF they get there heads out of the hood and onto the football field.... 

 
 
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Posted: #50

Quote Originally Posted by ridingdirty:



My friend you are over-valuing the SEC this year!  Yes, Florida looks great BUT the SEC is NOT what it was!  This line is over-inflated for 2 reasons:  1. public perception that Florida is superior and 2. recent history suggests Florida domination HOWEVER, I uncovered some data that is very intriguing.  Florida State catches the Gators in a great spot - a double digit road fave and riding a minimum of a 3 game win streak against a huge rival.  Well, well, well did you know that teams in this spot have failed really bad!  In fact this has happened 7 times in the past decade and how many of those double digit faves do you think covered?  NONE! Even more interesting is the fave failed to cover the spread by an average of about 14 points per game.  With the line opening at 15 it tells me this game is virtually a pick and could come down to the wire thus making the moneyline a very good risk to take IMO. 

alright!  now at least we have some reasoning...

i will say this: i am NOT over-valueing the SEC... in fact, top to bottom the ACC is actually BETTER than the SEC!  (holy crap i am going to catch hell for this)... remember i said top to bottom... and before anyone rips me for saying this, i must add that 1) i don't really believe this statement, and 2) i am only saying what Jeff Sagarin's ratings are saying...

however, the ACC isn't playing the SEC this week... Florida St is playing Florida... it is like saying USC won't pummel ND because the Pac-10 is down... yea, the Pac-10 is down, but USC isn't... neither is Florida... they are fucking good!

but... i do respect that "value" angle... and your trend analysis is very interesting...

appreciate the insight and the reasoning... i respectfully disagree, and am still very confident in my bet on Florida... but i am all the more thankful (on Thanksgiving, no less) that i got it early and bought it down to (-14)... i will be very interested to see if your trend pans out... if not the SU win, at least the cover...

i still highly doubt FSU knocks off Florida, but GL on it nonetheless...

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