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I need help (advice) - I'm 18-38 this year. can it get better

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Prospect
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Posted: #1
So I have been gambling pretty heavily for the last 4-5 years. I've seen just about everything happen. But this year is different. I have never had a run like this. I am way down and don't know what to do. 

Dilemma: Bookie and I don't square up until season end. He and I both know each other well and that's not the issue. I can still lose a bit more and be comfortable (down about 2500). 

Question: I know betting is streaky but I really am beating myself up over this. Can I actually get better? I have had some insane bad beats - and I mean like every bad beat this year I have been on the game. I know I'm right there but its so bad. 

Has anyone ever had a disastrous run like this and fought back? I have chased a few times that got me deeper in the hole (drunk gambling around 5PM post Badger Saturday...) and I am stopping this. Chasing = money lost faster than gained. 

My other question is units. I don't mean to say chase on, but should I bid up my units? I usually $50/unit. 

And advice or horror stories to shining comebacks would be nice. Like I said - I know its about streaks but Ive never had anything like this and wonder if I should stop and pay off and be done. I would be back until like the end of the season tho. So stopping now and I will force it to just be over. 

Thanks fellas. 
 
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Posted: #2
We've all been in bad streaks. Some worse then others. Just ride the ship and you'll get outta it with solid handicapping. Once was down 3K in craps and won it all back with $10 snake eyes. Luck can turn around quickly. GL
 
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Posted: #3
the smart thing to do is bid DOWN your unit size. 

start with 20 a game until you get on a roll...

there is alot of season left. 10 weeks + bowls. 

you are at the point where breaking even would be a HUGE success for you. 

first thing i would do is start saving 10% of each of your next 6 months worth of paychecks. 

that wayif you end up down you can still pay.

next. get your nose on the grindstone. 

research these games. make plays based on research and not drunken impulse. 

in fact. I DONT DRINK ALCOHOL AT ALL DURING CFB SEASON BECAUSE gambling and drinking dont mix at all. 

next. work your way up and take in in stages. try to eliminate 8-12% of the losses each week. so if you are down 2G's. try to win 200 bucks this week. 200 the next. 200 the week after. 

slow and steady wins the race. 




OR....



bet 2G's on your next favorite play, and apply Vaseline to your fool if the game doesnt hit. 

either way...best of luck to you. 
 
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Posted: #4
have you ever won over the course of a year before? 

you need to find a winning formula that works for you...  for me i go large on 1 ncaa play and play a few others significantly less then go medium on 4-6 nfl games. try not to play favorites.  it works for me. you need to find a formula that works for you.  if you haven't had success in the past and don't have a formula that works, you should find one before risking your money, this is a tough racket and it can get ugly in a hurry if you don't know what you're doing.  nothing worst than getting down and then chaising, you think its bad now, it can get a lot worst.   just my 2 cents.



 
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Posted: #5
Thanks for the thoughts guys. 

My big problem this year has been the large wager amounts when a bit buzzed. Badger saturdays just = drinking. We have a great time but when Ive had a struggling day I try to get it back and well...we all know how that goes. I know i NEED to just stick to my plays, submit Sat around 8 am and thats it. 

I have won in the past. Every year Ive cashed out between 500 and 2500. I dont have a "formula" per say - just me looking at stats and watching games to get a feel for teams. Thats my fear. Its like ive lost the touch and cant tell whos who anymore. Or maybe its just been a bad beat season with drunk chases. I cant tell the difference. Either way the record is insanely bad. Never been close to anything like this. 
 
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Posted: #6
yea bro, you need to do your analysis, lock in your plays (i would recomend before the weekend) and then when the balls start flying and the drinks start flowing you shouldn't be placing more wagers.

the difference between winning and losing usually comes down to discipline.  

do you want to give your f'ing money to your bookie or not? if its the latter, than stop being a baffoon and making drunk crazy wagers. 
 

 


 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by abizzo24:

yea bro, you need to do your analysis, lock in your plays (i would recomend before the weekend) and then when the balls start flying and the drinks start flowing you shouldn't be placing more wagers.

the difference between winning and losing usually comes down to discipline.  

do you want to give your f'ing money to your bookie or not? if its the latter, than stop being a baffoon and making drunk crazy wagers. 
 

 




 I needed that. Absolutely needed that.
 
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Posted: #8

Take some time off.....maybe skip a week or two of betting and just watch the games.

Sounds like the "bad beats" are probably from late turnovers and untimely pass interference calls.  It is hard not to take that stuff personally, but the bad breaks will even out.

JD is right though.....do not increase your bet size until you get the ship under control. Bet before you drink....simple as that.

Never Make A Winner A Loser. Never.
 
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Posted: #9
cold streaks comes & goes just as fast as hot streaks. you just gotta know how to handle both situations. upping your wager when you're on a cold streak can bankrupt you quick. you should only do that when you're on a hot streak. drunk bets doesn't usually end well, that's why i get wasted after my bets are in. also, try to learn from your losses: like why & how did it happen. as that famous saying goes "those who don't know their history are doomed to repeat it". 

i hope you bounce back and end the season in the plus side. bol in the future.  
 
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Posted: #10
the fact you are making wagers while drinking tells me you are on emotion not info.  do you even study the teams and the recaps, box scores, etc?
 
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Posted: #11

EVERYONE who has done this for a while has experienced the cold streaks. Sometimes it's not how good you capp a game but just a simple bounce of the ball, a bad call by the ref, a special teams meltdown.

Take for instance the Fresno game. Up 12 and Boise calls a fake punt from their 10 and I lose a game I had. It completely changed the momentum. Normally, I would have went in the tank and got buried Saturday. This time, I just wrote it off and let it go.

Go back to what made you money in the past. Most of all take the emotion out (easier said than done). However, the best advice is HAVE FUN! That is the whole point of this. It's entertainment.........

 
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Posted: #12
I would say bet less games maybe 2-3 on sat and 2-3 on sunday 
and increase your units per game . the less games you bet the better % you have of winning  and if you focus and research those games then you increase your % and also watch the games you can learn a lot about a team  do they always choke cowboys do they make stupid pentalies?   Not drinking is the smart thing of course i always win more in the casino when i am drinking 
 
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Posted: #13
Stop betting so many games 

Best of Luck
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #14
rynogeis

I'm in your same boat.  Already had to pay my bookie once and I'm down again.  My problem is discipline and and I just love the action but end up getting too many bets without research.  Betting second half over in Wyoming AF game was just stupid.  I'm also chasing to try to catch up.   Your not alone and there is smart guys on this site that have helped me win but I have to stop being my own worst enemy.  I lost on Arkansa st and can take that but dumb picks being dumb losses then make more dumb picks.
 
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Posted: #15
I remember being just like yourself. I took off a a couple of years, studied, and then got back into it realizing that I was betting WAY too many games and the year I got back into it, I was winning college ball but would lose it all on Sunday! It then took me a year to realize that I shouldn't betting NFL, baseball, NBA, or anything but college football and basketball. And then it took me another year to realize that I sucked at totals. After going through all of that, I stuck with what I knew and stuck with it.

So after all of that, here is what I did:

I would find some people on here to tail and get their insight. Some guys know certain conferences well than others some are better at totals, some better at the numbers and so on. Some of these guys have been doing very well and I take a consensus of some of my favorite cappers, study each of their picks on my own, take the ones I like, and roll with it. I spent many years thinking I knew who was going to cover but with no real knowledge of what in the hell I was doing. If you take the time, advice, and get to know your way around this site to take advantage of it, you can do well for yourself. What I do not recommend doing is tail someone and then go back and bash them if some of the bets they liked lose. This is a free site and a lot of these guys know what they are doing, don't get bitter about taking plays from them and then get mad about it. They didn't make you take the bet, they said what they liked.
Good luck for the res of the year!
 
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Posted: #16
Just stay with college games.  Do a couple of games a week only.  Do not waste a lot time doing tons of research and homework on games. Time is money!   Again, you first first see if you are in control of the situation.  If you must play more than a couple of games a week, you are hooked on gambling, you are addicted to gambling.  And that is serious garbage.  You will go down, flush your money, your time and maybe even your friends.   First rule is:  TAKE CONTROL!  You are not addicted, you are in control, you will play only two games a week and see how you do.  If you still lose, drop gambling for at least a couple of months.    
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:

Stop betting so many games 

Best of Luck

This.


Also, great advice about adding bets later in the game-day, especially after drinking.  Try to avoid that.  I know sometimes that is hard, since there are only a few games on, and if you are drinking, you are letting your guard down.  There are reasons you didn't play those games in the first place.

If you MUST have action on something all the time, be sure to research those games before-hand (before drinking too), and just make an impulsive wager near kick.  If you aren't that confident in those games before, but still must wager, ONLY MAKE A VERY SMALL WAGER RELATIVE TO YOUR NORMAL BET SIZE.  You'd be surprised that sometimes even a small bet can still relieve that action itch that needs scratching.  At least, that's how I feel, everyone is different.

You certainly aren't alone with your record and/or betting methods.  It's good that you can recognize the potential problems, and try to address them.

One other thing that I personally would do is try to pay off your bookie NOW, or at least as much as you can.  Playing with a deep credit line can get you in trouble, and can get you chasing, or always hoping that eventually even up.  Pay it up now, and start from square one.  Throw your record out the window, and just try to chip back up and do your best to turn a profit the rest of the season.


 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by bk1374:


This.




If you MUST have action on something all the time, be sure to research those games before-hand (before drinking too), and  NOT just make an impulsive wager near kick. 


Left out a key word!!
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by rynogeis:

Thanks for the thoughts guys. 

My big problem this year has been the large wager amounts when a bit buzzed. Badger saturdays just = drinking. We have a great time but when Ive had a struggling day I try to get it back and well...we all know how that goes. I know i NEED to just stick to my plays, submit Sat around 8 am and thats it. 

I have won in the past. Every year Ive cashed out between 500 and 2500. I dont have a "formula" per say - just me looking at stats and watching games to get a feel for teams. Thats my fear. Its like ive lost the touch and cant tell whos who anymore. Or maybe its just been a bad beat season with drunk chases. I cant tell the difference. Either way the record is insanely bad. Never been close to anything like this. 

I think you have identified your problem.  Next step is to correct it. Either stop drinking or stop gambling or both.  If you elect to keep betting, then you will get GREAT value from post-game breakdowns.  People who don't study their bets AFTER a loss will likely never improve.  Ask the very simple question: WHY did I think this was a good bet?  Look for a pattern.  Maybe you got hooked in on a play because you heard someone else talk real confidently about it.  Maybe you aren't considering the previous and next games of the teams involved.  Maybe you just like chalk because you aren't analyzing the matchup, etc.

If I were you I wouldn't bet again until I had gone over at least the last month's worth of bets and do that analysis.  Something is bound to come to light if you do that.

BOL going forward.
 
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Posted: #20
Really appreciate all the talk here guys. Glad I posted.

I know I am a good capper but I absolutely love action. So combining being down during the day and wanting action, I know I set myself up for chase destruction.

I know the Big Ten in and out. They've been my wins. Gonna stick around there and see some insight from other cappers on plays outside of Big Ten. If anyone has suggestions on cappers lmk.

I want to stick to 5 games in college from now on at half units.

Thanks again.
 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by pbt:

We've all been in bad streaks. Some worse then others. Just ride the ship and you'll get outta it with solid handicapping. Once was down 3K in craps and won it all back with $10 snake eyes. Luck can turn around quickly. GL

That one roll bet pays 30-1. 
 
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Posted: #22

Lock in your early plays. Then, make a list of 2 or 3 late games that you kinda like. If the early games go well, drunk bet the "kinda like" games for small change, or throw them in a parlay.

Its hard for a gambler to change his ways, but altering them can be beneficial.

 
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Posted: #23
I'm glad you posted as well... Went through the EXACT same thing last yr! Almost identical to you. Even our wager amount. I buckled down and got hot during bowl season then got cocky and blew it the rest of the NFL. Started the first two weeks this yr HOT. 25$ a game and was up 225$! I'm now down 250$. I'm lost and have ZERO confidence at something I use to do well at (usually bring home 200-400$ a yr consistently). Now I make my bets and wanna go lay in bed and cry til pay up day! I think we just need to buckle down and focus on just one or two games until we get our feel back. If we lose suck it up and try again but stay consistent with money management and don't chase it! I've been the king of bad beats and what I'm starting to think is I can't let that affect my confidence. Sometimes you make the exact right play but it doesn't always win. Fresno this past week, Pitt as well. Thanks for posting bc it helped me realize I'm not alone. And thanks to everyone for actually helping and not busting balls! GL to all! BEAT THE BOOKS!
 
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Posted: #24
Anyone help on this??? I've also noticed when a friend asks me for a pick (I keep my betting private so they don't know I suck when asking lol) I 90% of the time give them winners! Probably bc I don't give them my plays. But why don't I play those games or why can't I pick my own winners??
 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #25
Danny.
Dang if your picking opposites for them and its hitting 90% it sounds like you should cap a game and figure out the best team, write it down, and them scratch it all out and play the other team.. Lol just kidding. Keep doing your homework. It will pay off. Until then keep your # of games low and wages low until you get your skills down.. This isn't easy money by any means . Good luck buddy
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