In depth Clemson Notre Dame breakdown

key stats that could determine the outcome:

1.    – In 2018, two teams recorded a quarterback pressure on over 40% of their defensive pass-rushing snaps. Both made the playoffs – Clemson (45.8%) and Alabama (40.6%).

2.    – Clemson relies heavily on run-pass options with the second-most RPOs of any FBS school (390 behind only Wake Forest at 461). They are particularly effective running the ball out of the RPO, averaging 7.7 yards per attempt, which ranks among the top five teams in the country. No running back has more yards than Travis Etienne’s 835 yards on run-pass options.

3.    Clemson was the only FBS team to allow fewer than one yard per rush attempt before contact was made on the ball carrier (0.9 yards before contact per attempt). Notre Dame ranks 37th out of 130 FBS teams with 2.5 rushing yards before contact per attempt.

4.    – Julian Okwara has 35 pressures on 3rd and 4th down this season. That is five more than any other defender at any position.

5.    – Ian Book has been much better inside the pocket than out this season with a passing grade of 82.6 in the pocket and 48.2 outside the pocket. Despite that, Book has the 21st-most pass attempts of any FBS quarterback outside the pocket (68).

6.    Trevor Lawrence gets rid of the football quicker than nearly any other quarterback. His average time to throw of just 2.19 seconds is the second fastest of any Power-5 quarterback with 200 or more dropbacks. Over two-thirds of his dropbacks have been unleashed in 2.5 seconds or less, a number that leads all Power-5 quarterbacks.

7.    Clemson’s rush defense is the best in the country, ranking #1 in yards allowed per carry (2.4 yards) as well as #1 in rushing yards allowed per game (91 yards) The Clemson front 7 also ranks #1 in rush yards allowed before contact (0.9 yards per carry)  The Tigers have not allowed a 100 yard rusher in 19 games, which is the longest streak in college football.

Notre Dame was able to have success moving the ball once Dexter Williams returned from a 4 game suspension,  The Irish ranked 48^th in rush offense averaging 190 yards on 42 carries (4.6 ypc) This number drops significantly once ND gets into the red zone, inside the 20 they average 2 ypc, the Irish rank 105^th in redzone rush offense. 

8.    Despite Clemson’s #1 defensive ranking, their unit is actually much better than the numbers even suggest.  The Tigers are the #2 scoring defense, the #1 rush defense, #1 in yards allowed, #4 in havoc rate, 4^th in 3^rd down conversion %, and 6^th against the pass.

a.    Clemson will be without their All American DT, Dexter Lawrence who is their best run defender.  Fortunately for the Tigers, Albert Huggins is an NFL caliber back up. 

9.     The Notre Dame offense will need to try to establish the run or they risk putting too much pressure on their defense.  Offensively, Notre Dame relies on a mixture of running the ball, along with screen passes, before they take deep shots to their big bodied WR’s.  Book will need his wr;s to come down with some of these 50/50 balls if they have a chance of keeping pace with Clemson.   Notre Dame’s two primary WR’s are both over 6’3, while their TE Alize Mack is 6’4. Clemson should match up better than most teams bc they have a long secondary. Clemson’s CB’s are both 6’2, while their Safeties are 6’3 and 6’4…

10.                     The biggest difference between these two teams has to be Clemson’s offensive skill players compared to Notre Dame’s. This is where Clemson has the pure talent advantage and as is generally the case, it bears out in the statistics. Clemson ranks 5th in yards per game and 7th in S&P+ offense while Notre Dame ranks 28th in YPG and 26th in S&P+. Despite recruiting higher ranked offensive lineman, Clemson’s oline is significantly better than the Irish.    Notre Dame ranks outside the top 100 in line yards (an advanced metric for run blocking) and outside the top 30 in sack rate (and advanced metric for passing blocking), while Clemson ranks in the top 20 in both line yards and sack rate. Clemson’s starters are more experienced, which may help explain this.

To be continued….

***** Due to the shocking development that defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence most likely won't play vs. Notre Dame, senior backup Albert Huggins will likely receive most of those reps.

Huggins, who's listed as Christian Wilkins' backup, played 307 snaps this season (23.6 per game) compared to Lawrence's 467 (35.9 per game). The only game Huggins played less than 20 snaps was at Boston College when he played 18. He recorded 24 tackles (3.5 for loss) and 2.5 sacks this season. He entered 2018 with 503 snaps and two starts (both in 2017 subbing for an injured Lawrence) under his belt. 

So he's had a prominent role in the defensive line rotation as the fifth man, and he was even listed as co-starter alongside Lawrence entering fall camp, which was a direct result of their respective springs. Lawrence sat out of contact drills during the spring to try and get his toe back to 100 percent, so Huggins received most of those reps. 

Recall that Huggins was expected to compete for a starting role this season when Wilkins was believed a safe bet to turn pro. 

Not to suggest it won't sting a ton that Lawrence might not get to play out his Clemson career, but it's also pretty cool that Huggins -- who took a while to fully embrace the gritty grind of competing on an elite college football team while working in the shadows of a quartet of studs (not to mention young Clemson d-line superstars in the making like Xavier Thomas) -- is set to have the biggest role of his career on Saturday in the College Football Playoff semifinal, and maybe beyond. 

Wilkins has been fantastic this season. 

No reason to think his impact won't be felt vs. Notre Dame. 

But if Lawrence isn't playing, there's also no reason to think Notre Dame won't try and double team Wilkins more often. 

It'll be interesting to see how Notre Dame plays Wilkins based on how Clemson lines up and vice versa. 

Wilkins' blend of speed and strength is a tough out for for right guard Tommy Kraemer. Center Sam Mustipher will also face a stern test against Wilkins. Even a double team might be difficult to contain. 

Does Notre Dame try and trust redshirt freshman left guard Aaron Banks, who was inserted into the starting lineup following Alex Bars' injury, to hold up against Wilkins? 

Banks is powerful and strong but he's young. 

Maybe the scenario we see most often is Mustipher and Banks double-teaming Wilkins, and Kraemer going up against Huggins. 

I don't have the answer and might be off in my line of thinking. 

Could be a bit of a feeling-each-other-out scenario during the first couple of drives for both sides.

***** By the numbers and a glance at personnel ... 

Brent Venables' defense is built to stop the run, and not strictly from a personnel standpoint but from a schematic one.

Clemson allowed an average of 2.40 yards per rush in 13 games this season. It was the best mark in the nation by quite a bit. (Michigan State's 2.67 was second-best.) 

Obviously, Clemson's stifling front four had a lot to do with it, but so did Clemson's 'backers and safeties and how Venables defended opposition.

— Notre Dame finished 48th in total rush offense. The Irish averaged 190 on the ground on 42 carries per game (4.56 average). 

— Notre Dame ranks 105th in red zone rush offense. The Irish average just two yards per carry inside the red zone. Notre Dame has 17 rushing touchdowns from inside the red zone. For comparison, Clemson has 32. 

— Notre Dame ranks 40th in rushing plays of 10+ yards; 43rd in 20+; 26th in 30+; and 50th in 40+. Notre Dame has had three rushing plays of 50 or more yards. Clemson has had nine. 

 It will be a tall task for Notre Dame's offensive line to get push against Clemson — with or without Lawrence.

I don't think anyone familiar with this matchup would deny that. 

This is not the Irish offensive line of recent years that would literally open up holes as wide as the width of the line. Gone are former top-10 NFL Draft picks Quenton Nelson and Mike McGlinchey. 

Plus, the tenured and versatile aforementioned Bars, who entered this season as a full-time starter the previous two seasons, was lost for the season after suffering an ACL tear vs. Stanford in September. 

Part of the issue for Notre Dame against Clemson in this matchup is twofold:

1) Notre Dame isn't going to move you a ton pre-snap. Or at least they haven't shown that on tape to date. So Clemson will be able to get set. 

2) The Irish are a run-it-between-the-tackles team. That's right in Clemson's wheelhouse. 

Clemson will still be the best run defense Notre Dame has faced all season. 

Against Power Five competition in three of the four games that followed Bars' injury, Notre Dame racked up 167, 80, and 121 yards on the ground vs. Virginia Tech (32 carries), Pittsburgh (38 carries), and Northwestern (40 carries), respectively. 

Notre Dame then exploded for 365 rushing yards vs. Florida State. 

I think you can sort of call the 2.11 ypc (Pitt) and 7.30 ypc (Florida State) outliers on both ends.

The game most worth calling attention to is Northwestern (Nov. 3) when the Wildcats' 32-ranked defense held Notre Dame to a 3.03 average and 121 yards. 

Williams rushed for 19 carries on 56 yards vs. the Wildcats. 

Against Syracuse (Nov. 17), Notre Dame rushed for 171 yards on 36 carries against the nation's No. 64th run defense. In the season finale vs. USC, Notre Dame rushed for 121 yards on 31 carries against the nation's No. 68 run defense. 

***** Notre Dame's routine, rhythmic, and extremely accurate short passing game -- some of which is based off RPO but not all of it -- is an extension of Notre Dame's run game. 

The Bad:

1. Safety/LB Coverage Inconsistency: When Clemson does get exposed in the passing game it is usually when teams scheme to get match ups they like in space against Muse or the Clemson linebackers. This is an area that has greatly improved over the course of the season but Notre Dame does a nice job utilizing their tight end and running backs in the pass game. Also, Book's ability to freestyle when pressured, puts additional stress on the safeties to stay in coverage and not allow receivers to get over the top. South Carolina did a great job of getting Deebo in these match ups. The Irish do not have a slot receiver on Deebo's level but Jones Jr. is a guy who can create nightmare match ups for the Clemson linebackers and safeties. He has average over 26 yards a catch and although Dexter Williams has been their primary back, I won't be surprised at all if Jones Jr. is more of a part of the game plan to offset Clemson's speed and athleticism on defense. Something else to watch out for is Notre Dame adding some wrinkles to get Wimbush on the field. They are going to need all the athletes they have to keep pace and he's one of their better ones.

2. Punting Efficiency: This is been an issue all year long. Spiers has lacked the ability to be a weapon at the punter's position. This has not been a big deal because Clemson has been so much better than everyone they have played to date but come the play offs, Spiers needs to dig deep and help his team. Last year against Alabama, Clemson badly needed to flip the field and help out a struggling offense and he simply could not make it happen. He has not only struggled to flip the field but he has also struggled to drop punts inside the 10 when he has the opportunity. He either boots it into the endzone or kicks it short and drops it at the 20. If Clemson can successfully make Notre Dame dive the field 70-80 yards all game, I simply do not see the Irish being able to score enough points to win.

Notre Dame

The Good:

1. Scoring Defense: Like Clemson, Notre Dame has been very good at keeping teams off the scoreboard. Even inn games where they gave up a lot of yards, they were successful in keeping teams out of the end zone. They have not given up more than 27 points inn a game all season and that was a 56-27 point blow out against Wake Forest. Now, will that trend continue. They have not given up 24 points since that Wake game but they face a Clemson team that is averaging 50 points a game with Lawrence at QB. They have been very good at holding teams to FG and not allowing teams to strike fast. This will need to be their recipe Saturday if they want success stopping Clemson.

2. Ian Book's Efficiency: since Notre Dame made the transition from Wimbush to Book, the offense has become much more potent and efficient. While book's numbers are not staggering, they are impressive. He is completing 71% of his passes and averaged 8.8 yards per attempt and 247 yards of offense a game. Book is very good at eluding pressure and keeping plays alive. He has done a nice job getting the ball to his bigger receivers and putting it where they can make plays. where Book has struggled is on vertical balls and he seems to work better outside the hashes than he does the middle of the field. Clemson's corners are big, physical guys and Venables doesn't mind putting them on an island. I think Venables will start out running press man and force Book to work the middle of the field and make throws into coverage on the outside. Can Book make these throws and make these plays with Clemson's front four inn his face will be interesting.

3. Ball Control: Down the stretch Notre Dame's offense has really picked up. As mentioned above, they do not necessarily wow you with explosive plays, but what they do is grind it out wear you down. The last 5 games of the season whey were able to put up over 450 yards in each one of them. They really seemed to hit a different level once they escaped the Pitt game. This is not an offense that will scare Clemson on film, but it is an offense that can move the football and has some weapons. They will need to find success running the ball so that all the pressure is not on Book but that is easier said than done against a Clemson team that is #1 in the nation in yards per carry allowed at 2.4 yards per carry.

4. Defensive Efficiency: As mentioned above, Notre Dame has been very efficient on defense. They sit as the #11 ranked team in the country in this category. This is a defense that may not jump off the board with gaudy stats but they have been a defense that finds ways to get stops when they need to. They find ways to get off the field and give their offense opportunities. They force teams to earn their points and do not allow big plays. A lot of this is because of really solid safety play. Notre Dame has been able to bring down 12 interceptions on the season and have been very solid in coverage. This will be the most complete and well coached defense that Trevor Lawrence has seen. The question remains on whether or not they can disguise coverage and show Lawrence looks to force him into some mistakes.

The Bad:

Lawrence and not allow Etienne and company to get 5-6 yards a carry. If they allow Clemson to win first down and get Lawrence into manageable down and distance, I am not sure they can stress Lawrence enough to slow down Clemson train. Just like Clemson has not faced a defense as complete as Notre Dame, Notre Dame has not faced an offense anywhere close to what Clemson will trot out onto the field. Can their front four get enough pressure and be disruptive enough for the Irish to account for all of Clemson's play makers? They will need to play the best game of the season up front for this to happen.

2. Offensive Opportunities: While they have been efficient on offense and they got the momentum rolling somewhat towards the end of the season, they struggled over the course of the season of finding the end zone when they got into the red zone. They were only able to score a touchdown on 62% of their RZ trips. In 51 trips, they were only able to score 51 times. For the Irish to keep pace with Clemson, they are going to have to score touchdowns. Field Goals will not get it done against this Clemson team.

Summary: I think this is a game that favors Clemson in most match ups. Notre Dame is going to need to scheme and play call to near perfection to win this game in my opinion. Are they capable of beating Clemson? Absolutely! They are the best team Clemson has faced this season and they are a team that plays with a lot of grit. I think this comes down to the Clemson front 7 on defense and Clemson's team speed. I think it will end up being too much for the Irish. I think Clemson wins by 10+

Brent Venables with several weeks to prepare

Clemson’s defensive coordinator is arguably the best in the nation, and he has been particularly good when given extra time to prepare. It will have been nearly a month since Clemson last played a game when the Tigers face Notre Dame in the Cotton Bowl. Clemson’s defense has allowed an average of 17.7 points and 296 yards in bowl games (excluding national title games) in the six years that Venables has been at Clemson. Those performances came against some of the top programs in college football as Clemson faced Alabama, Ohio State (2), Oklahoma (2) and LSU.

Clemson’s offense continuing to improve

As prolific as Clemson’s offense has been in 2018 (the Tigers are currently No. 5 nationally in total offense), it is easy to forget that the unit is young. Clemson starts a true freshman at quarterback in Trevor Lawrence and a pair of true sophomores at receiver, as well as at running back. Clemson freshman Justyn Ross has also proven to be one of the most talented receivers on the team and one of Lawrence’s favorite targets. With Lawrence getting several practice days to gel with Clemson’s skill players around him, the Tigers have an opportunity to make a sizable jump offensively heading into the Cotton Bowl.

The secondary improving

If there is one question mark on this team, it is in the secondary. The unit has been dominant at times, holding first-team All-ACC quarterback Ryan Finley to 156 passing yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions in a 41-7 win. But it has also struggled at times as South Carolina quarterback Jake Bentley torched the Tigers for more than 500 passing yards and five touchdowns. Swinney and Venables have maintained that they feel good about the secondary throughout the season, and Clemson’s defensive backs are confident. Still, when Clemson has struggled this season, it has been with communication, and having several weeks between games should certainly help.

so whos clemson playing again

I thought this was bias yesterday when you had only posted a few times and before I knew for sure you were picking Clemson. The ACC has only three teams with eight-plus wins this year. The ACC only has nine teams with a winning record, and besides the three I just referenced, six are only one game above .500.

Both teams have played four teams with eight-plus wins with ND obviously having the stronger group of eight-plus win teams. Clemson's group consisted of Georgia Southern and A&M, a game where they escaped with a questionable win. I believe ND is a tad underrated while Clemson is overrated due to the fact they played in such a weak conference (where a number of their games were closer than the score would indicate) and are being given credit for their recent history. 

You said you thought ND would win only 2 or 3 times out of 10. You may be right. But they're not playing ten times. I think ND is the better team in a winner take-all match up. They definitely cover if they don't win.

I also believe ND will beat bama in the NC. Bama has only played one complete team all year: Georgia. A team that's supposed to be as good as bama is (some would say greatest of all time) shouldn't take their first lead of the game with only a minute left in the game. And I think they lose that game had Tua not gotten hurt and forcing bama to play Jalen Hurts. But that's what happens when you've only played two teams that could give you somewhat of a good game, MSU and LSU, only because they had such exceptional defenses.