I understand some ppl on this board love Alabama regardless of what they're laying but there are ZERO metrics that make them even double digits vs Washington. If I'm missing something, please let me know.
Please check you're roll tide rhetoric and Saban is God narratives at the door.
Let's get some meaningful conversation going as far as where the value is.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I understand some ppl on this board love Alabama regardless of what they're laying but there are ZERO metrics that make them even double digits vs Washington. If I'm missing something, please let me know.
Please check you're roll tide rhetoric and Saban is God narratives at the door.
Let's get some meaningful conversation going as far as where the value is.
I understand some ppl on this board love Alabama regardless of what they're laying but there are ZERO metrics that make them even double digits vs Washington. If I'm missing something, please let me know.
Please check you're roll tide rhetoric and Saban is God narratives at the door.
Let's get some meaningful conversation going as far as where the value is.
agreed.and to add, game isnt for another month practically. sometimes I wonder if other people even realize theres other bowl games out there.....even some with MUCH better value.
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Quote Originally Posted by rm990:
I understand some ppl on this board love Alabama regardless of what they're laying but there are ZERO metrics that make them even double digits vs Washington. If I'm missing something, please let me know.
Please check you're roll tide rhetoric and Saban is God narratives at the door.
Let's get some meaningful conversation going as far as where the value is.
agreed.and to add, game isnt for another month practically. sometimes I wonder if other people even realize theres other bowl games out there.....even some with MUCH better value.
Sometimes Alabama's playcalling and other tactics have goals other than maximizing the things that the metrics measure.
Would you care to elaborate? Even if you power rate them as the greatest team of all time (I don't think they are btw), they should not be 14+ over this Washington team....
What you are essentially saying is the metrics that outline them as an all time great team don't even do their dominance justice??
Not buying it.
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Quote Originally Posted by mws:
Sometimes Alabama's playcalling and other tactics have goals other than maximizing the things that the metrics measure.
Would you care to elaborate? Even if you power rate them as the greatest team of all time (I don't think they are btw), they should not be 14+ over this Washington team....
What you are essentially saying is the metrics that outline them as an all time great team don't even do their dominance justice??
I swear, Covers cracks me up sometimes. The unintentional comedy is an absolute 10 out of 10. I guess I should be thankful for it though... It allows the books to hold WAY over 4.5% and it allows astute players to enjoy their hobby at basically no cost and possibly even profit a bit. Let's keep this MENSA meeting going...
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I swear, Covers cracks me up sometimes. The unintentional comedy is an absolute 10 out of 10. I guess I should be thankful for it though... It allows the books to hold WAY over 4.5% and it allows astute players to enjoy their hobby at basically no cost and possibly even profit a bit. Let's keep this MENSA meeting going...
Washington played 1 team this season that has similar talent to that is found in the SEC, but not close to what Bama has all over the field...USC at home and they were handled very easily.
The Bama line is going to destroy the Washington line, and the QB is going to look worse than he has the last 4+ weeks
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Washington played 1 team this season that has similar talent to that is found in the SEC, but not close to what Bama has all over the field...USC at home and they were handled very easily.
The Bama line is going to destroy the Washington line, and the QB is going to look worse than he has the last 4+ weeks
I understand some ppl on this board love Alabama regardless of what they're laying but there are ZERO metrics that make them even double digits vs Washington. If I'm missing something, please let me know.
Please check you're roll tide rhetoric and Saban is God narratives at the door.
Let's get some meaningful conversation going as far as where the value is.
I have news for you rm990
Alabama would be double digit favorites over every team in the playoff and every other team in top 8, with one exception, 9.5 over Ohio St, they are .5 point away from double dig over every team in the country by Vegas ratings as of two days ago
.
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Quote Originally Posted by rm990:
I understand some ppl on this board love Alabama regardless of what they're laying but there are ZERO metrics that make them even double digits vs Washington. If I'm missing something, please let me know.
Please check you're roll tide rhetoric and Saban is God narratives at the door.
Let's get some meaningful conversation going as far as where the value is.
I have news for you rm990
Alabama would be double digit favorites over every team in the playoff and every other team in top 8, with one exception, 9.5 over Ohio St, they are .5 point away from double dig over every team in the country by Vegas ratings as of two days ago
Terrible matchup for Huskies..... Will not be close
agreed tideman!! i took bama and bought it down to 6 in a 2 team parlay... but i think the wildcard is CP.. the odds he keeps a game like this relatively close maybe 30% yes 70% no... id say thats higher than most teams with 4 weeks to prepare for bama
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Quote Originally Posted by tideman:
Terrible matchup for Huskies..... Will not be close
agreed tideman!! i took bama and bought it down to 6 in a 2 team parlay... but i think the wildcard is CP.. the odds he keeps a game like this relatively close maybe 30% yes 70% no... id say thats higher than most teams with 4 weeks to prepare for bama
Alabama would be double digit favorites over every team in the playoff and every other team in top 8, with one exception, 9.5 over Ohio St, they are .5 point away from double dig over every team in the country by Vegas ratings as of two days ago
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Quote Originally Posted by WahooS:
I have news for you rm990
Alabama would be double digit favorites over every team in the playoff and every other team in top 8, with one exception, 9.5 over Ohio St, they are .5 point away from double dig over every team in the country by Vegas ratings as of two days ago
I'll give you the metric. Browning is a hack that has no business being in a game of this magnitude. He was awful vs USC. He was awful vs Colorado. Only reason they won that game is because Colorado could not stop simple runs up the middle from Washington that went for 5-6 yards a carry. By the way, that's why NCAAF is such a weak sport compared to the NFL. No team wins in the NFL handing it off every time, but you can do that in college.
Washington wont be able to run the ball on Alabama. And they won't do much in the passing game time either. I think their defense can maybe keep them around. But honestly, it's hard to seize up Washington's D because they play the little sisters of the poor every week. They were very good vs Washington State. Vs Colorado they played a young team with a QB on one leg.
Alabama should win this game by double digits. Whether it's by 13 or 24 I don't know. That's why you get a spread of 16. It's a bad game to bet. But yeah I suppose maybe they only lose by 11 or 13. I'm sure everyone here will look to bet this game just because it's a final four game. It pays out the same as Hawaii's Bowl game. No need to force it.
I understand some people picking Clemson because I think that's a pickem and for whatever reason they decide to give them 3.5 because Ohio State is playing. I think Ohio State is overrated and I can't have them laying points when they almost lost to a terrible MSU game and really should have lost to Michigan.
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I'll give you the metric. Browning is a hack that has no business being in a game of this magnitude. He was awful vs USC. He was awful vs Colorado. Only reason they won that game is because Colorado could not stop simple runs up the middle from Washington that went for 5-6 yards a carry. By the way, that's why NCAAF is such a weak sport compared to the NFL. No team wins in the NFL handing it off every time, but you can do that in college.
Washington wont be able to run the ball on Alabama. And they won't do much in the passing game time either. I think their defense can maybe keep them around. But honestly, it's hard to seize up Washington's D because they play the little sisters of the poor every week. They were very good vs Washington State. Vs Colorado they played a young team with a QB on one leg.
Alabama should win this game by double digits. Whether it's by 13 or 24 I don't know. That's why you get a spread of 16. It's a bad game to bet. But yeah I suppose maybe they only lose by 11 or 13. I'm sure everyone here will look to bet this game just because it's a final four game. It pays out the same as Hawaii's Bowl game. No need to force it.
I understand some people picking Clemson because I think that's a pickem and for whatever reason they decide to give them 3.5 because Ohio State is playing. I think Ohio State is overrated and I can't have them laying points when they almost lost to a terrible MSU game and really should have lost to Michigan.
Can someone please look at the quality QB's that Alabama's vaunted defense had to play this season?
the SEC qb's for the most part aren't good, doesn't change the outcome because Browning is solid
what you need to look at is Bama vs pro style QB's
go watch the Bama/Mich St game if you want to see this one play out
mich St had a great coach, a very solid pro style QB, a very disciplined defense and a team that played everyone tough, beat basically everyone, faced Bama and had nothing to offer
Washington is basically Mich St from last year, a very good team that may cover 1/5 games vs Bama but most likely will be shut down in most areas and overwhelmed
.
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Quote Originally Posted by Onthereal:
Can someone please look at the quality QB's that Alabama's vaunted defense had to play this season?
the SEC qb's for the most part aren't good, doesn't change the outcome because Browning is solid
what you need to look at is Bama vs pro style QB's
go watch the Bama/Mich St game if you want to see this one play out
mich St had a great coach, a very solid pro style QB, a very disciplined defense and a team that played everyone tough, beat basically everyone, faced Bama and had nothing to offer
Washington is basically Mich St from last year, a very good team that may cover 1/5 games vs Bama but most likely will be shut down in most areas and overwhelmed
the USC defensive line really overwhelmed the Washington offense and that was @ Washington (which is a very good homefield), Usc physcially whipped them at the line
that is really the only team they faced that could be compared to anything Alabama will bring to the table and obviously USC isn't even on that level
I love coach Pete and I want to cheer for the Huskies to pull off the massive upset, I will be cheering for them with everything
the reality is though, they will more than likely be overwhelmed by size, speed, strength, depth and the pressure of the moment, Alabama is a different beast
.
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one other thing to be aware of
the USC defensive line really overwhelmed the Washington offense and that was @ Washington (which is a very good homefield), Usc physcially whipped them at the line
that is really the only team they faced that could be compared to anything Alabama will bring to the table and obviously USC isn't even on that level
I love coach Pete and I want to cheer for the Huskies to pull off the massive upset, I will be cheering for them with everything
the reality is though, they will more than likely be overwhelmed by size, speed, strength, depth and the pressure of the moment, Alabama is a different beast
I'm still blown away at the support for Alabama at this price. They are absolutely being valued incorrectly. Anyone sharp who took the early number is undoubtedly just looking for buyback on Washington once the sheep are lined up for slaughter.
The Tide may cover... they may win the whole damn thing. That does not change the fact that they are a horrible bet to do either one at the current pricing.
If anyone believes there is value on an undefeated, publicly adored, national power, then you my friend are a bookie's dream.
Obviously we are in a sports betting forum... I'm assuming all of you bet?? Do you guys make your own numbers? How do you handicap? I just want someone to tell me their numbers see equity in Bama -16.5
No fanatical narratives
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I'm still blown away at the support for Alabama at this price. They are absolutely being valued incorrectly. Anyone sharp who took the early number is undoubtedly just looking for buyback on Washington once the sheep are lined up for slaughter.
The Tide may cover... they may win the whole damn thing. That does not change the fact that they are a horrible bet to do either one at the current pricing.
If anyone believes there is value on an undefeated, publicly adored, national power, then you my friend are a bookie's dream.
Obviously we are in a sports betting forum... I'm assuming all of you bet?? Do you guys make your own numbers? How do you handicap? I just want someone to tell me their numbers see equity in Bama -16.5
I'm pasting my post from another thread.........not fanatical.
I'll be realistic.....it's hard for anyone to play four qtrs. of solid
ball vs. bama at full strength, & Washington isn't at full strength.
Losing Mathis & Victor was a blow......& they won't be back for
this game. Not only that, but I'm convinced Browning has some sort of
injury. It's obvious he has lost something on his throws. He never had a
rocket arm but there's something missing both in strength &
accuracy. CP isn't one to go out of his way to disclose injuries (unless
they're obvious) & there hasn't been one word about Browning
ailing, but I can tell. Whether it's something that a couple weeks of
rest will help is unknown. All that being said, Washington has the
skills, speed, & size in the their starters to compete with Alabama,
but probably not the depth. If you look at the amount of frosh &
sophs on their roster it's amazing they're at where they're at. CP has
done a helluva coaching job. I won't say it's hopeless but if they're in
this game late it will be because they played flawless & bama
didn't.
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I'm pasting my post from another thread.........not fanatical.
I'll be realistic.....it's hard for anyone to play four qtrs. of solid
ball vs. bama at full strength, & Washington isn't at full strength.
Losing Mathis & Victor was a blow......& they won't be back for
this game. Not only that, but I'm convinced Browning has some sort of
injury. It's obvious he has lost something on his throws. He never had a
rocket arm but there's something missing both in strength &
accuracy. CP isn't one to go out of his way to disclose injuries (unless
they're obvious) & there hasn't been one word about Browning
ailing, but I can tell. Whether it's something that a couple weeks of
rest will help is unknown. All that being said, Washington has the
skills, speed, & size in the their starters to compete with Alabama,
but probably not the depth. If you look at the amount of frosh &
sophs on their roster it's amazing they're at where they're at. CP has
done a helluva coaching job. I won't say it's hopeless but if they're in
this game late it will be because they played flawless & bama
didn't.
I'm still blown away at the support for Alabama at this price. They are absolutely being valued incorrectly. Anyone sharp who took the early number is undoubtedly just looking for buyback on Washington once the sheep are lined up for slaughter.
The Tide may cover... they may win the whole damn thing. That does not change the fact that they are a horrible bet to do either one at the current pricing.
If anyone believes there is value on an undefeated, publicly adored, national power, then you my friend are a bookie's dream.
Obviously we are in a sports betting forum... I'm assuming all of you bet?? Do you guys make your own numbers? How do you handicap? I just want someone to tell me their numbers see equity in Bama -16.5
No fanatical narratives
I get your point but Bama continues to cover the spread and they've been giving insane lines all season, they have been ranked number 1 all season yet cover most, they were just laying 24 in a conference championship game with basically no fear of not making the playoff and they won by 40 or whatever, they simply cover spreads
the patriots also continue to be number 1 and cover all their games, have you faded them all year?
the cowboys are huge public faves, cover most every game this year, you been fading them?
I can find examples of public favorites covering almost all of their games over past several years, look at the top teams in college football in recent years, covered way more than not
the "current pricing" only matters if it wins, buy low/sell high matters if it wins, if it loses than all you have is great numbers and no money left
.
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Quote Originally Posted by rm990:
I'm still blown away at the support for Alabama at this price. They are absolutely being valued incorrectly. Anyone sharp who took the early number is undoubtedly just looking for buyback on Washington once the sheep are lined up for slaughter.
The Tide may cover... they may win the whole damn thing. That does not change the fact that they are a horrible bet to do either one at the current pricing.
If anyone believes there is value on an undefeated, publicly adored, national power, then you my friend are a bookie's dream.
Obviously we are in a sports betting forum... I'm assuming all of you bet?? Do you guys make your own numbers? How do you handicap? I just want someone to tell me their numbers see equity in Bama -16.5
No fanatical narratives
I get your point but Bama continues to cover the spread and they've been giving insane lines all season, they have been ranked number 1 all season yet cover most, they were just laying 24 in a conference championship game with basically no fear of not making the playoff and they won by 40 or whatever, they simply cover spreads
the patriots also continue to be number 1 and cover all their games, have you faded them all year?
the cowboys are huge public faves, cover most every game this year, you been fading them?
I can find examples of public favorites covering almost all of their games over past several years, look at the top teams in college football in recent years, covered way more than not
the "current pricing" only matters if it wins, buy low/sell high matters if it wins, if it loses than all you have is great numbers and no money left
I'm still blown away at the support for Alabama at this price. They are absolutely being valued incorrectly. Anyone sharp who took the early number is undoubtedly just looking for buyback on Washington once the sheep are lined up for slaughter.
I have -13 for most of my money and some at 13.5, if line get crazy over next 3 weeks I will certainly go for middle with some of it, I wouldn't do that 16.5 though, it would take a number above 18 most likely that way I'm covered on 38-20, 42-24 etc etc
.
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Quote Originally Posted by rm990:
I'm still blown away at the support for Alabama at this price. They are absolutely being valued incorrectly. Anyone sharp who took the early number is undoubtedly just looking for buyback on Washington once the sheep are lined up for slaughter.
I have -13 for most of my money and some at 13.5, if line get crazy over next 3 weeks I will certainly go for middle with some of it, I wouldn't do that 16.5 though, it would take a number above 18 most likely that way I'm covered on 38-20, 42-24 etc etc
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