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It's Meat Tenderizer time again baby!!! Time to POUND this BEEFY PLAY OF THE YEAR!!!

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Posted: #126
I agree, best play of the card. Smu has talent and will score 40+.
 
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Posted: #127
I watched a lot (too much) of the Tulane-Temple game a couple months ago.  Their offense is putrid.  Both these teams are bad, obviously.  SMU offense has potential to score at least. Tulane only got above 14 points TWICE this year vs. FBS teams (UCF and Army).  UCF defense is bad, and Army's can be had too, and don't forget Tulane got 14 points on DST that game, so offense only scored 20.  Throw out those two and their win vs. Maine and they're averaging less than 10 points per game.

Anyway, long story short, while both are bad, I agree with Scal that SMU is better and Tulane will struggle to keep up, so laying a FG or less on the home team here has good value.

I'm on it.




 
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Posted: #128
 
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Posted: #129
Quote Originally Posted by BWS77:



ATS Maryland:  6-4
ATS SMU:  4-6


Maybe you should do some homework before discrediting someone else's statements.   
He was talking about the general capabilities of each team and both qualify as terrible at times.

And even at that, as you zipped to your PC to defend someone you don't even know because he is adversarial against me, to say a coin flip difference in ATS is a reason Maryland is a great pick and SMU is a poor pick is high comedy (and you've supplied a lot in this thread and continue to do so). 
 
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Posted: #130
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

He was talking about the general capabilities of each team and both qualify as terrible at times.

And even at that, as you zipped to your PC to defend someone you don't even know because he is adversarial against me, to say a coin flip difference in ATS is a reason Maryland is a great pick and SMU is a poor pick is high comedy (and you've supplied a lot in this thread and continue to do so). 


I can't wait till about 11:30 pm tomorrow night.      
 
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Posted: #131
Quote Originally Posted by The Hawk:

The sad part is now I have to pay attention to this game.......

Scal, I'm curious. I know you're back East, follow NY NJ teams, Penn/Philly.................................so.................how do you end up watching so much Tulane football?

Well that's easy.  I watched UCF East Carolina on ESPN last year and if you didn't see the end of that game, you missed one of the most thrilling finishes of the year, if not the best one. That win knocked ECU out of a potential conference championship on their home field in a game they had all but won two times over. That game was O V E R. Or so they thought....

I had that game circled for this year as a massive revenge angle for ECU this year. I saw Tulane was on UCF's schedule and and started scouting them as a potential early play since I was also watching UCF games. 

Well we know this is easily the worst UCF team in their history and when I saw ECU open at -15, I just couldn't lay that number on the road after what they did vs Temple. Plus this game got out of hand but they did lose their starting QB who is the entire offense so that game went from bad to very ugly quickly. He could have dropped a TD or two extra on them and kept them at least sniffing at the spread.

Back to Tulane. Tulane actually gained a lot of momentum in that UCF win through UCF turnovers and special teams botches, not on offense. So UCF, which qualifies as the worst team in the nation, and they looked every bit of it that day, even came back on them and made the final respectable with no RB and maybe one of the worst QB's in CFB. 

That got me interested because while UCF got all the attention as the winless worst team in the nation, Tulane is not significantly better with their 3 wins. They are sneakily terrible per se. I love that they won against Army. That really was the icing on the cake here as they only had 3 practices to prepare for SMU which should pull several rabbits out of their hat tomorrow. 

So I not only watched Tulane games but I started betting them. The lines were huge (21+ at times so they're not really postworthy...I only have confidence in posting Rutgers at such a huge number. Maybe Kansas too) but after some success, I eyeballed this game as the only one where Tulane may not only be getting only a handful of points but may be a pick um. 3 was more than welcome in my book.

I've been waiting for this play to develop all year and prayed SMU would go into this on a big losing streak (always a motivating factor late in the year to snap it, especially at home...except for UCF of course) and I got that too.  The Stars have aligned for this one. So here we are...very very confident in this pick and it is my biggest bet of the year after Bills @ Jets.






 
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Posted: #132
@bk - nice post

@blood - 



Here is the link to the final two minutes of ECU UCF last year. If you want to be entertained and are not familiar with the ending, just hit play. It is worth your time!

https://youtu.be/l1Uv_MwDA3Q

 
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Posted: #133
Quote Originally Posted by BWS77:



I can't wait till about 11:30 pm tomorrow night.      
log into the site now and donate. Save yourself the trouble.
 
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Posted: #134
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

log into the site now and donate. Save yourself the trouble.

You're too damn c0cky for someone backing a 1-9 team...  Don't let it get lost that something good is actually coming out our little back and forth feud here for once.....let that be the focus.  

Just hope that SMU covers because you're gonna look like a fool if they don't.  

Until tomorrow evening.....     

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hEU4S43OZEM

Get used to hearing it    


 
 
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Posted: #135
Quote Originally Posted by BWS77:


You're too damn c0cky for someone backing a 1-9 team...  Don't let it get lost that something good is actually coming out our little back and forth feud here for once.....let that be the focus.  

Just hope that SMU covers because you're gonna look like a fool if they don't.  

Until tomorrow evening.....     

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hEU4S43OZEM

Get used to hearing it    


 

I've back teams on 15 to 20 game losing streaks in the NBA and hit comfortably. 1-9 is a dream compared to that.
 
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Posted: #136
Scal.   Appreciate the astute write-up.  Thank you for putting in the time and effort.  Good luck.
 
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Posted: #137
Quote Originally Posted by bandit1010:

Scal.   Appreciate the astute write-up.  Thank you for putting in the time and effort.  Good luck.
 
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Posted: #138
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


I've back teams on 15 to 20 game losing streaks in the NBA and hit comfortably. 1-9 is a dream compared to that.


Don't hurt your check writing hand patting yourself on the back.
 
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Posted: #139
Quote Originally Posted by BWS77:


You're too damn c0cky for someone backing a 1-9 team...  Don't let it get lost that something good is actually coming out our little back and forth feud here for once.....let that be the focus.  

Just hope that SMU covers because you're gonna look like a fool if they don't.  

Until tomorrow evening.....     

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hEU4S43OZEM

Get used to hearing it    


 

you will look like a fool if you lose as well.. for someone coming into his thread and talking $hit lol... 
 
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Posted: #140
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

Quote Originally Posted by MedicalMaryJay:

I agree here Trey. After looking hard at this game. These two teams have 3 common opponents. They both gave up 457/461 yards to Houston. However, Tulane Defense gave up 355 to Temple, and 291 to Navy. SMUs defense gave up 536 to Temple and 484 to Navy. That's a huge difference. Also SMU fumbles the ball quite a bit. Every time they do not fumble in a game, they follow it up with 2+ lost. They didn't fumble last game... I still think SMU can win but think it's going to be a competitve game.
SMU takes chances. That explains some of the fumbles. Tulane is very vanilla and is willing to punt more often then not...


That certainly plays into it. I am just saying, don't be surprised if they cough it up once or twice. I would bet that SMU defense holds Tualne below their def average YPP and YPG allowed. Their offense is superior by far, but their defense is just as bad as ARMY, UCF. Actually I'm giving SMU the benefit of the doubt because they are at home tomorrow. They are technically, Or statistically worse than UCF and wayyyy worse then ARMY. Literally bottom of the barrell with New Mexico st. Texas tech and Kansas are worse but we know why that is. BOL though, I'm routing for you. Prob be on a 2nd half play.
 
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Posted: #141
Quote Originally Posted by MedicalMaryJay:

SMU takes chances. That explains some of the fumbles. Tulane is very vanilla and is willing to punt more often then not...

That certainly plays into it. I am just saying, don't be surprised if they cough it up once or twice. I would bet that SMU defense holds Tualne below their def average YPP and YPG allowed. Their offense is superior by far, but their defense is just as bad as ARMY, UCF. Actually I'm giving SMU the benefit of the doubt because they are at home tomorrow. They are technically, Or statistically worse than UCF and wayyyy worse then ARMY. Literally bottom of the barrell with New Mexico st. Texas tech and Kansas are worse but we know why that is. BOL though, I'm routing for you. Prob be on a 2nd half play.

They are not worse than UCF. UCF hasn't played near the completion that SMU has (TCU and Baylor) and allowed ECU, a team that was averaging 14 pts a game over the last three games and can get extremely conservative walk all over it on at home to tune of 44 pts. UCF even allows Uconn to score 41 on them. ECU literally could have scored 70 if they didn't run the ball the entire second half. SMU is not that bad and will have some incentive to perform tomorrow in their last chance at a win. They won't win their last game.
 
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Posted: #142
The trolls are a-plenty around here
 
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Posted: #143
Quote Originally Posted by Jailbait7127:


you will look like a fool if you lose as well.. for someone coming into his thread and talking $hit lol... 

Actually, it's a win-win for me.   If Tulane covers, I was right about his poor choice for a play of the year on a terrible team and a worthwhile charity gets a donation from him.   If SMU covers, he wins all his followers some money and I make a donation to a worthwhile charity.  

All I wanted to do was warn people that usually the bigger he talks, the harder he falls.   Especially someone like the guy in Post #72 who says he is tailing blindly not knowing anything about either team....   when the game is over he's gonna say "why the hell would anyone bet on this?".    And most people who wager on this game will say the same thing, win or lose.  Hell, I've been there before... just 2 weeks ago I took UNLV against Hawaii.   It won, but after it was over I knew it shouldn't have even been on the radar.  

We'll see what happens in about 24 hours now.....   

 
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Posted: #144
Quote Originally Posted by BWS77:

 

Actually, it's a win-win for me.   If Tulane covers, I was right about his poor choice for a play of the year on a terrible team and a worthwhile charity gets a donation from him.   If SMU covers, he wins all his followers some money and I make a donation to a worthwhile charity.  

All I wanted to do was warn people that usually the bigger he talks, the harder he falls.   Especially someone like the guy in Post #72 who says he is tailing blindly not knowing anything about either team....   when the game is over he's gonna say "why the hell would anyone bet on this?".    And most people who wager on this game will say the same thing, win or lose.  Hell, I've been there before... just 2 weeks ago I took UNLV against Hawaii.   It won, but after it was over I knew it shouldn't have even been on the radar.  

We'll see what happens in about 24 hours now.....   


Uh no, I've been confident in dozens of threads and they've hit easily. Example: Bills @ Jets. Where were you warning people in that one when I told posters they were out of their mind to take the Jets.

NO ONE wins every pick. The best of the best hit 60-65%. That's losing 35 out of 100 picks and those of course, with a guy like me who you have a problem with, are the ones you choose to remember.

And why do you think I'm posting this? He says he is tailing blindly but in reality he is not. I've wrote endlessly in this thread about these two teams and could write some more. He read the thread. The research was done for him and he found SMU to be a compelling side as do many here.

Tailing blindly is when someone posts a pick with no info and a person follows that pick. The guy can't come back here and say 'why did I follow?' because he knows the reason he followed...it's all here!

Anyhow, I said I had even more to say about this game and I do:

Everybody is worried about how badly SMU got crushed by Navy.

Well here is how seriously SMU took the Navy game, a game they knew they couldn't win:



 
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Posted: #145

ANNAPOLIS, Md. -- SMU's Garrett Krstich has started a game, so that was not what made Saturday's game against Navy a big deal.

One reason the former walk-on returned for his senior year after having surgery to repair three tears in his labrum last January was the chance to return to Navy.

Years ago, Krstich's father, who played for the Midshipmen, took his teenage son to Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, where he put on a Navy helmet and threw the football with a friend. Jeff Krstich died a few weeks later from a heart attack during a pickup lacrosse game.

Knowing the work and injuries that Krstich endured over four previous seasons, coach Chad Morris gave him a scholarship so he could start working on his master's degree. Krstich is the team's holder and helps signal in plays.

When Morris learned of the bond Krstich had with his father and Navy, which celebrated the 45th anniversary of Jeff Krstich's graduating class, Morris decided to let him start Saturday's game at quarterback. He also served as one of the team's captains, going to midfield for the coin toss.



He threw a pass, ran a couple downs and was pulled and threw an INT when the game was a blowout. They decided to lose with class. Do you think they'd ever start a QB, even for one play, who couldn't perform in a game they could win, especially in a season which has gone awry? In essence, you could argue that their winnable game against Tulane this week has been their focuse for last TWO weeks with last week's blowout being a mere formality. That makes this Tulane game even more attractive for an SMU side.

 
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Posted: #146
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

Just wanted to add another piece of info on Tulane:


Tanner Lee, Tulane's QB, is playing with a broken middle finger on his throwing hand. His backup is not acceptable to win anything of any kind and therefore, Lee stays out there.

Now I've watched Tanner Lee many times this year. He can air it out. Definitely can throw and connect on bombs and I fully expect him to do so on SMU's secondary (not to worry SMU will score more than enough to overcome this).

But Tanner is quite the prize when it comes to needing errant throws. He misses targets by 5 yards sometimes on deep passes. This is like serving a secondary, even a bad one, lunch with a bib on. Army just was in the wrong place, wrong time when it happened but you can't get away with this kind of thing over and over and he does it 3/4/5 times a game. If you have Tulane you will be holding your breath on some of his long throws. Intercept 40% of those passes and those are additional scores in addition to what SMU will give us.

Lee was not fully responsible for most of Tulane's scores, and they all came early.

Went up 28-7 in the first half by these Army miscues:

1) Snap over the head of the punter giving Tulane field position deep in army territory. Resulted in a TD.
2) 47 yard fumble return for a TD
3) Lee throws an 80+ yard bomb that the receiver drops. Army's secondary is so bad he calls the exact same play and converts it on the next down. Lee can connect on those as stated. But that is more an indictment of how bad Army is than it is Lee's skill in comparison. That gave him a huge chunk of throwing yards for the game in comparison to Army's long sustained drives for multiple scores (what you want to see when backing a team and what you want to fade on Tulane's side because you can't depend on fumbles/snap miscues/and Hail Mary's game after game).

Furthermore, Tulane was up 21-7 in the beginning of the second quarter and only had 4 first downs! I'll fade that every day of the week. Army absolutely dominated time of possession. Why am I telling you this? This is not an efficient offense in any and not a penny should be wagered on it. Tulane thrives off turnovers and good field positio from those turnover and it they don't get them, they will struggle.

They also went up 28-7 and let Army tie it up 28-28 (they don't know what it is to maintain a lead...).

And this isn't just the Army game. Tulane does this every game. I'm just giving you the details of the most recent game.

Two consecutive road wins for this Tulane team is almost unfathomable.






Hey Scal. BOL BRO!!!  I'm on it large! If this hits I'm gonna give you my toothless half sister. 

 
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Posted: #147
I'm going big this game. This better hit!
 
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Posted: #148
Hey Scal, just wondering how big are you going on this? Do you put the same amount on all your plays or is this one a lot bigger than most, being a play of the year and all?

 
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Posted: #149
ninja - My biggest play of the year was the Bills over the Jets. This play is about that much as well. 1 unit = 100. I've got 9 units on this one and it's pretty much 10 because I have a 1 unit donation in this thread if I lose.

But this play if not going to lose so I'd be willing to donate every earthly possession if asked.

@main @chef - see ya at the window...
 
 
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Posted: #150
Thanks for the response =)

Best of luck!
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