kimp24 Bowl Picks

I'm gonna start trying to post my picks more often, particularly in NCAAF, since it is the sport i cap best, so consider this thread my introduction for the new year. 


here we go!

Army +7.5 (1 unit) - people are saying Army hasn't beaten anybody, but to be fair, SMU's only "marquee" win is Tulsa, with some consideration for ECU as well.  both of those games stayed within a TD.  Crowd advantage certainly goes to SMU, since this is a rare instance where a team is playing in a bowl game on their home turf.  One of the biggest factors in bowl games, however, goes to Army.  Motivation.  Army is bowling for the first time in 14 years.  They ended the season in a bit of a rough patch, but military men aren't known for laying down, and I think they come out running.  SMU on the other hand, may or may not be disappointed about playing a bowl game at home, instead of at some other exotic location (there's still a chance they come out 'motivated' to win on their home turf).  SMU struggled against the triple-option against Navy, giving up 250+ yards on the ground.  Army, also struggled against the pass-heavy offense of Hawaii.  However, they still managed to stay within 3-pts despite giving up 350+ yards in the air, and if not for a late turnover, were in position to win the game. 
Under 51.5 (.5 unit) - i expect this game to be played in the 20's.  Both teams are capable of putting up the points to send this way over, but I think this game will be played tight and close. 

prediction(?):  28-21 SMU

Kansas St vs. Syracuse - no play on a side (lean Cuse)
Under 48 (1 unit) - Syracuse is the key to this pick.  Good Cuse defense keeps K-State in check, while a rather poor offense continues to struggle to put points on the board. 

BOL Kimp

Washington +14.5 (2 units)
Washington ML +450 (.5 unit)
As I mentioned in my Army write-up, motivation is a HUGE factor for me in capping bowl games.  Outside of the BCS bowls, Washington has to be the team with the most to play for in their bowl game.  Nebraska rolled the Huskies in their regular season meeting 56-21.  Public money as far as I've seen is all over Nebraska because of this.  Here is my take on the motivational plays in this game.  First off, there is the obvious revenge factor.  They were embarrassed on their home turf early in the season by a good Nebraska team.  Second, Nebraska has nothing to play for other than pride.  They'll be disappointed not to be in the Fiesta Bowl, especially having jumped out to a 17-0 lead in the Big XII championship game.  Finally, and perhaps most importantly, Jake Locker.  Let me start by saying, I hate Jake Locker.  No, let me rephrase that.  I think Jake Locker is one of the most overrated "NFL prospects" in a long time.  That being said, he is still a talented college quarterback.  Deciding to come back for his senior season, in hindsight, was a mistake from a financial perspective.   His draft stock has plummeted, and he's gone from being a likely top 10, possibly #1 pick, to a late 1st round to second round pick.  This game, is his last chance to boost his draft stock.  I believe he will have one of the best games of his career, circa Terrelle Pryor in the Rose Bowl last year.  Other than the fact that Nebraska is simply a better team, the only other element I see here for them is the possibility, that they will want to win their final game as a Big XII conference team.  But, let's be honest, that hardly qualifies as a motivational factor when you compare it to what Washington has running through their veins.  I think they keep it inside of 2 TDs, and the moneyline is worth a punt here, although I'm not holding my breath on that one. 

Note:  While Washington is my POD, and I like the pick a LOT, I don't put large units on early bowl games.  Typical plays for me are 1-5 units.  early bowl games i will almost never go over 2 units.  BCS bowl games I pound hard, because I believe in my handicapping in those games, and those plays typically range from 5-20 units. 

Thanks.  Cheers.

great first half for my army +7.5 and under 51.5.  still a long way to go on both bets.  SMU certainly capable of coming back & both teams capable of putting up the points to send this over...

UNC/Tenn pick probably won't be made until just before gametime...initally had Tenn as a strong pick, but a second look pushed my lean to UNC.  Now I keep flipping back and forth...maybe stay away...still researching to find something to push me one way or the other.

Army +7.5
Under 51.5
Under 48
Washington +14.5
Washington ML +450

Plays for Friday 12/31:

Miami -3 (2 units)
Simply put, Miami is the more talented team in this one.  Only hesitation I have here, is Jacory Harris's inability to perform in the big games.  Notre Dame's freshman QB Tommy Rees has led the Irish to 3 straight victories to close out the sesason, while Miami dropped their final 2 games against Virginia Tech and USF.  Notre Dame's strength lies in their passing game, but Miami has one of the best secondaries in the country.  The wildcard in this game is the firing of Randy Shannon at Miami prior to the bowl game.  But history has shown that coaching changes don't affect bowl performances as much as people might think.  This game could be tight, but I think Miami's talent will prevail.  The over might not be a bad play here either.

South Carolina -3 (3 units)
Spurrier renews his old rivalry with Florida State in this one.  2 teams coming off losses in their respective Conference championship matchups.  I've been very impressed by this South Carolina team.  Of course they have that win over the defending national champions Alabama, and they played Auburn pretty tight in their first meeting.  Disappointments in a let-down game at Kentucky following their draining win against Bama and a poor performance in the SEC championship are the only dark spots in an otherwise very impressive season.  Both teams have balanced offenses and solid defenses.  Should be a great game, but I think, South Carolina is a slightly better team.  Steve Spurrier never wants to lose to Florida State, and his players will come to play, looking to redeem themselves from an abysmal performance in the SEC Championship game.

1/1 plays coming next.   I'll be out of town for the next few days, so I'm posting all plays today.  Cheers.

Disclaimer:  I am a Michigan fan.

Michigan ML +165 (1 unit)
Over 60.0 (1 unit)
Homer pick.  If there's a chance, I won't bet against them.  I would usually stay away and just enjoy the game, but this is a bowl game.  Denard Robinson's had a month to recover.  Rumors are coming around that Rich Rod has come up with a system that involves Robinson and Forcier on the field at the same time.  I'm very curious/excited to see that in action. 

Wisconsin +2.5 (10 units)
Wisconsin ML +115 (5 units)
Over 58.5 (1 unit)
To put it simply: TCU just doesn't matchup.  A small defensive line versus one of the biggest, baddest, and best o-lines in the country and one of the most potent rushing attacks in the country leave me with no choice but to take Wisconsin here.  I respect TCU for what they've done in breaking into the BCS, and managing to do it over a Boise State team I personally thought was one of the top 4 teams in the country.  So much for that.  TCU still has the #1 scoring defense in the country, and both teams are tied with the #4 scoring offenses in the country at 43.3 PPG.  This game should be very exciting, and while the majority of the public seems to think this will be a Wisconsin blowout, I think this game will be played very tight, and in the 40s.  I don't know if TCU will pull out the magic tricks circa Boise State and a couple trick plays could swing the game for TCU, but I don't cap games based on trick plays.  given the performances of these 2 teams in the regular season, I think Wisconsin comes away with a straight-up victory 7 out of 10 times. 

Leans:
Penn state +7, ML +240, Under 48
Michigan State +10 - i think Bama wins, I just don't think they blow out Sparty.
Oklahoma -17

Army +7.5
Under 51.5
Under 48
Washington +14.5
Washington ML +450 

Sides:  2-0 +2.73 units
Totals: 1-1 -.09 units
ML Dogs: 1-0 +2.25 units

good day today.  only 2 picks for tomorrow, most likely won't be adding more, but who knows. let's keep this going

this thread is lonely and depressing...why bother with write-ups if nobody reads them

i don't expect one day to get me any followers, but it'd be nice to have some sort of discussion.  people are always talking about how they wish people would do write-ups and not just post plays, but it seems like those are the people that get the discussions going in the thread.

point out flaws in my analysis, or let me know if maybe i highlighted something you didn't think about initially.  either way, i'd appreciate some feedback.

Great Pics, get a avatar picture and people will recognize you...

I am also like SC for Friday bowl game, they are a great team.

that mich pick may change since forcier is academically ineligible. hope that denard doesn't get dinged up.

good picks yesterday...gl this weekend

yeah i just saw that...still sticking with my pick.  I'm sure the scheme'll still be effective with gardner & robinson instead of forcier. 

The0ne, haithuy

ps. i'll get on that pic right away

i forgot to mention, that obviously the pressure is on Rich Rod, and there are rumors that he's already out regardless of the result of this bowl game.  The players, however, like him, and will give their all to give him some redemption and try to save his job.  Also, most of the seniors are playing in their first, and last, bowl game.  They'll come out strong and, while I have no faith in Greg Robinson as a DC, I'm hoping a month to plan will have been enough time to come up with some clever defensive schemes...