With 70%+ of the money on the under and a trend of 15 straight unders hitting, the line is not moving off of 35 (some have dropped to 34.5 quickly then back up but this isn’t substantial movement). This line should be continuing down to 34, 33.5, etc to balance the money as close to 50-50 as possible…unless…..vegas is willing to take huge liability on the under without moving it lower, which is a strong sign this game goes over.
Did you even read the post? I’m making a direct case that’s not what’s happening showing that the oddsmakers are strongly in favor of an over 35. If they didn’t have a strong lean mathematically, they would look to balance the action which is how line movement is “suppose” to work.
Its now 35 everywhere - no more 34.5’s available at any vegas books. Still 70% of the money on under. Getting close to an under death sentence. We shall see what the next 2 hours hold.
They came out with this at 37 this was 4 or 5 pts lower than last year and dropped another few points .. im furthest thing from an insider but think in their eyes prob just see under money piling on as a +EV risk so win or lose they played it right by making under bettors take what looks like a decent size risk .... drop more and now the risk shifts opening up more of a middle w 34, 35, 36 .. if I was running a book that's what I really wouldn't want since im already making gamblers eat a few points and they keep betting under on a 35 total lol .. I did see BM had it back at 37 so maybe feel over money is showing up late and they're good with the risk and getting outta the way .. maybe want to be the best under number around idk .. would say at this point if the books had some sense this was a legit over and should be 45 or something then others would too by now and they'd be getting hammered over 35 by now so would have to assume they think total under is a real possibility ..
Interesting take and logical. The under trend in this game is one of the most well known in CFB. I’m sure many pros were at the window the second this came out taking the under 37 for serious money. If they drop it any more from 35 the middle opportunity could be huge.
The next two hours the cards will be shown as usual! Sometimes I enjoy this stuff more than the game itself.
The thing is though, the public doesn't really like Unders. I think this year with what army score and what Navy gives up it could go Over and that's where value lies.
But I simply do not wish to be sitting there with an Over ticket watching teams that don't pass and hoping that the only chunk plays which could happpen (big runs)get called back.
@Pro_Fball_Picks
I hit it under 37 for fun bucks .. look ahead sneak peek line at DK .. wouldn't call it sharp and doubt any big time gamblers were fighting to get in at that number i'd think 42 woulda maybe been legit play .. im just rollin for fun and figured i was taking a bit of a square total .. books know we know the trend so no prob making us pay for it .. Also grabbed ARMY TTO H1 11.5 .. would be fun to hit both ..
anyway good luck however you play it ...
I recommend you start thinking about it and analyzing line movement, money placement, tickets vs money, etc. if you want to be profitable at sports betting. You are placing wagers against book makers that use their resources, why wouldn’t you?
Consider the weather too. This game historically has been played in Philadelphia and I'm sure I recall seeing many of those games played in less than ideal conditions, cold, snow, weather typically more favorable for lower scoring. Last year in West Point, this year in E Rutherford looks like a decent weather forecast, a little windy but that won't affect these teams much at all. Back in Philly next season. Might be a few more points today-
Good point here line moving up could be to do with the weather being better than originally thought. This morning they were saying no passing at all in this wind….now not so much
Great lesson lol
A lesson based on percentages that are nothing more than crystal ball guesses. 70% of the money.... please. Why would any book share this info to a third party company who charges money for it? Those bet percentages are total bs designed to make you do exactly what you are doing.
Heres the actual lesson. The percentages are BS, and books do try to match action. So if the line went from 35 to 36, it simply means more money was bet on the over. If the line stayed at 35, it means action is even.
So many rubes gamble.
I don’t know who that is or even what that steak survivor is (although sounds like something I would like to know and take a look at) but I’ll bet you he took that under earlier in the week. The way the money and bets and line went up until kick off was bad news for under. But let’s see how it turns out.
@Pro_Fball_Picks
It's right here on Covers, free, check it out, it's the reason I initially joined Covers 18 years ago. And he made the pick yesterday. One man has the won 100k, Tuppy, but did it a few years ago when it was 21 in a row for the big money, now 25. 21 in a row for 25k, 17 for 1k.
14 in the 1st quarter, not a good start for under backers
Established in 1995,
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