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links....betting talk....week 1

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Posted: #176
Quote Originally Posted by firesox:


his stats are garbage. Has Georgia tech ranked higher than USC

Listened to him explain his stats, and it's just a cumulative regression model over the past few seasons. Zero predictability.

Well BA has vouched for him and I'd like to know if he pays for his services, or if the links he uses are all free.
 
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Posted: #177
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

BA, Do you pay anything for Ed Feng's breakdowns at the Power Rank or does he give out stats adjusting for Pace/SOS for free. I can't find it on the site.

There he is.....bringing fine BIG PICTURE handicapping.... to the forum.............

Naw....I (should) pay for analytics...maybe step up my TOTALS game.....looks like his power rankings / info in emails..is all that's free

Shoulda clarified my statement about him probably....
  * his numbers are just better than what else I've seen CURRENTLY...more solid than Massey's....ESPN's...probably close to Vegas's numbers than Bill C's (from previews)....etc
  
For PACE ........I use Bill C's stuff....

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaaoff

https://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2016-college-football-advanced-statistical-profiles

OR....do it myself until his stuff pops up.....maybe week 6?
  *using Team Rankings usually

This spot not bad....https://www.cfbanalytics.com/

BOL this year man......stay outta that GD forum ha.....

 
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Posted: #178
Quote Originally Posted by firesox:


his stats are garbage. Has Georgia tech ranked higher than USC

Listened to him explain his stats, and it's just a cumulative regression model over the past few seasons. Zero predictability.

don't be such a pusssy FS...say what's on your mind man....

These ANALYTICS guys just stick to their numbers......so a lot may look strange....
    * IDEA?......the basics I preach here.....we are way too emotional.....too biased....so REMOVING all that stuff creates an EDGE.....

I (used to).....think that about Sagarin too
  * now I often check HIS vs mine


Here's Big Ed Feng's top few PR.....
  * Stanford research based PHD


Alabama        22.7
Clemson         18.4
Florida State  18.2
Ohio State     17
Oklahoma     16
Auburn          14.3
Stanford        13.6
Wisconsin     13.6
LSU               13
Washington  12.4
Penn State    12.0
Miami (FL)
Louisville
Georgia Tech
USC
Virginia Tech
Georgia
Florida
Texas A&M
Tennessee
Washington State
TCU
Notre Dame
North Carolina State
North Carolina
Mississippi
Houston
Iowa
Baylor
Michigan
Oklahoma State
Northwestern
Kansas State
Oregon
Vanderbilt
Pittsburgh
Texas
Mississippi State


Got few problems here....
  *  that GT sitting right above USC does look outta place....so REJECT the entire list?......maybe he's right / Trojans lose a lot....and have done NOTHING really....coach has proven?.....NOTHING yet.......careful before you lay 8 to Tree or 12 to Texas (HERMAN)
 

NOTE:   numbers / analytics are my weakness....so I EMBRACE that kinda stuff (not enough) ....rather than REJECT it like most would......
   $$   ..the smartest thing I've done?......besides now looking at the BIG PICTURE of course......is switching from basic CFBstats.com stuff......to Bill C's analytical style................ 
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Posted: #179
Quote Originally Posted by Upside:



In the magazine he gives out power plays ...page 5 in this years magazine .... That's what I'm talking about .... sorry for the confusion .... You would think he would post what his record is ??

Thx Book !

sorry man thought I hit that 1st time around ?????

Those are just TENTATIVE plays.....and (many) are based on spots that MIGHT occur.....more of a suggestion than a play really.....
  *  eg.     he says play UMass vs Hawaii week 0 ....ha

If you go the UMass page.... he says no Pointspread Power Play

SOO....we go to Hawaii's page....which says fade at UMass...
   *which must be....looking at the info....'bad / ugly / stats you will like >>  

1-7 SU in E time zones......since 1959......maybe 1-8 ATS vs a weak opponent (< .333)......so something to maybe check out ( I agree).....rather than to play

Since many are tentative....(play IF dog....play IF off loss...etc)....tough to keep records .................
  * he might tell you if ask him ?......here on Covers or Twitter maybe 
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Posted: #180
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:


sorry man thought I hit that 1st time around ?????

Those are just TENTATIVE plays.....and (many) are based on spots that MIGHT occur.....more of a suggestion than a play really.....
  *  eg.     he says play UMass vs Hawaii week 0 ....ha

If you go the UMass page.... he says no Pointspread Power Play

SOO....we go to Hawaii's page....which says fade at UMass...
   *which must be....looking at the info....'bad / ugly / stats you will like >>  

1-7 SU in E time zones......since 1959......maybe 1-8 ATS vs a weak opponent (< .333)......so something to maybe check out ( I agree).....rather than to play

Since many are tentative....(play IF dog....play IF off loss...etc)....tough to keep records .................
  * he might tell you if ask him ?......here on Covers or Twitter maybe 



Cool bro ..thanks for the info ... So any Pointspread Power Plays are just suggestions and not plays .... got it .... thank you ....

Shame he puts no record in magazine of those kind of plays ...

Maybe I will ask him on twitter .... thx BA !!
 
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Posted: #181
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:


There he is.....bringing fine BIG PICTURE handicapping.... to the forum.............

Naw....I (should) pay for analytics...maybe step up my TOTALS game.....looks like his power rankings / info in emails..is all that's free

Shoulda clarified my statement about him probably....
  * his numbers are just better than what else I've seen CURRENTLY...more solid than Massey's....ESPN's...probably close to Vegas's numbers than Bill C's (from previews)....etc
  
For PACE ........I use Bill C's stuff....

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaaoff

https://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2016-college-football-advanced-statistical-profiles

OR....do it myself until his stuff pops up.....maybe week 6?
  *using Team Rankings usually

This spot not bad....https://www.cfbanalytics.com/

BOL this year man......stay outta that GD forum ha.....

 
.  

Thanks for that. I took a look. That's what I wanted.

Don't worry. I'll never be stepping foot in GD again.
 
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Posted: #182
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


Thanks for that. I took a look. That's what I wanted.

Don't worry. I'll never be stepping foot in GD again.

as I mentioned above....

that cfbanalytics is (looks like) maybe the best site for tempo stats.....can't believe I just now found it

overall.....

https://www.cfbanalytics.com/2016tempo.php

head to head......other stuff too 

https://www.cfbanalytics.com/index.php

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Posted: #183
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:


Too bad both of us are too busy with work....trying to figure this stuff out / stay ahead....to ACTUALLY talk some football each week >  HAVE SOME FUN wtf....
     

Yeah, no sh!t, had to cram alot into July knowing that August was going to be a fluster fck.  Literally marked up a Calendar of what I intended to review when / make sure I wasn't biting off more than I can chew / "communicate" to my wife that this level of time commitment was about to happen.

And actually talking some football does sound fun. We'll have to do that as much as possible this season.  

Time management!? .... Fck me... just don't sleep I guess.  1 hour commute each way seems kinda normal any more.
Last weekend - big family reunion (wife's family that is).  Some of the family dynamics a little stressful.  
This weekend - HS reunion
Next weekend - company picnic Saturday.  Then--taking the 7 year old to his first MLB game on Sunday, Dodgers at Tigers.  Should be a great time.

My Saturdays this fall will involve not only watching as much college football as I can, but also coaching TWO boys soccer teams (U8 & U6).  Schedule will coincide with CFB weeks 3-8.  What did we ever do before DVR!?  May have to compare notes on how some of these teams look as I play catch up.

Hope you're couple days away / CFB cram session was productive.  

And that Asian Persuasion always was a good time...    Right on!

TD


 
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Posted: #184
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:


as I mentioned above....

that cfbanalytics is (looks like) maybe the best site for tempo stats.....can't believe I just now found it

overall.....

https://www.cfbanalytics.com/2016tempo.php

head to head......other stuff too 

https://www.cfbanalytics.com/index.php


Wow. UCF had the highest number of possessions per game in all of CFB last year. That is mind-blowing. 

Of course, as is the point of studying tempo, they gave up the highest number as well.
 
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Posted: #185
byu and colorado state moved that much?
 
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Posted: #186
DB is back !...........................
 * of course they moved........most do................


BTW........in order to 'take advantage'.....of early deals.....step 1 is knowing what the line 'should be' to begin with.....98% here......make zero effort to do this
  *  kinda amazing ain't it

Even more amazing?......each week I tell you.....what the line 'should be'......and 90% or so I'm guessing....pay little attention .....failing to recognize the line (almost always)......moves in the direction I suggest.......... 
  * nope......didn't do it in freakin' early March ha....week 2 (should) be up Friday 9/1......ain't gonna promise anything tho.....< helluva lotta work




AVOIDING UNCERTAINTY


instead of highjacking LM's Miami / Herd thread......



Just an idea.....that I think is pretty solid 

Look for a match-up.....where you have a 'reasonable idea'.....of how BOTH teams might play....
      * tough to define....but if a lot of last years team is gone.....or esp if they have a new HC.....why not just PASS?........

Herd vs Miami?......zero idea how Marshall plays = PASS

Texas vs Maryland?..........BOTH teams really a wildcard
  * Horns bust out WEEK 1?.....maybe / maybe not

I kinda sorta like USF.......but we have ZERO idea how SJSU will play.......and really how USF will respond under CS
  * maybe Willie T is a MUCH better coach........?

I like the Irish v Temple........at early numbers
  * so.....ND just automatically bounces back?.....Temple takes a big step back.....for sure?.....maybe Collins is a BETTER HC than Rhule?......................EVERYBODY  here......thinks he ain't.....flawed logic beyond belief

Like the Trojans v W Mich?........Broncos gonna stink > get slaughtered here?......or maybe STILL extremely tough?........NOBODY knows

S Carolina gonna play NCSt tough.....or get the crap beat outta them?................PASS

Major Applewhite a great HC?.....or does he stink?.....I've seen guys say THEY KNOW FOR SURE !!!!!......why are you FORCING this idea?....week 1 wtf
  * related to MA ?  

UCLA v A&M.......holy crap .............
  * BOTH teams an incredible wildcard.....Aggies usually tough outta the gate....how 'bout that QB match-up tho?..........HUGE PASS



But....no doubt many STILL argue......they know
  *FYI......what you're doing is trying to justify a HUNCH.....that's all...............
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Posted: #187
Go across the street and get your laugh for the day in the thread titled LSU Season Win Total 9???

SNITCHES end up being bitches, or end up with stitches, and in ditches! #REALITY
 
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Posted: #188
byu is +12 right?
 
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Posted: #189
Quote Originally Posted by Urbanwildlife:

Go across the street and get your laugh for the day in the thread titled LSU Season Win Total 9???


......man for SOME reason......I bust a gut every time I read that crap........I just might take out some life insurance for that Ralphie......I prefer the USF -20 thread.......
  * that's Mike Meds thread.....LSU UNDER 9 ????? 


"I guess you will never know, but no matter how bad I may have been, it is not even close to how big of an fool you are. Too bad I do not have a chance to meet you up close and personal. Your face would resemble that burger than I had for lunch, BEFORE it was cooked. P**** ".
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #190
Quote Originally Posted by Dbreezyy:

byu is +12 right?


that's a 6 pt teaser DB.....small just for grins.....looking for an excuse to play N Dame.....since I missed the early numbers on both......semi-cheesy but at +100 not a bad risk IMO..... ...........
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Posted: #191
Byu -2 in your 1 unit picks is confusing the garbage outta me lol
 
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Posted: #192
Quote Originally Posted by dbasports:

Byu -2 in your 1 unit picks is confusing the garbage outta me lol

HOW DARE YOU QUESTION....................................

you mean the pick?....or possible typo (not 2')....probably was at 2 when I posted it....can't recall to tell ya the truth.............

pick explained for whomever...........been awhile

If a number cruncher.......good for you BTW......these teams may appear to be close.......suggesting this one (should) be closer to pick-em......meaning at 2' the value is with NI
  * I see that side.....but the BABPHT (BA big picture handicapping theory)......says THIS game is HUGE.......for a BC team desperately needing W's.....HC has shown that NC games are key.....AND he prepares his teams to play tough on the road

 $  while 2' is no doubt a 'fair' line......I have this one at BC -5
*  meaning essentially the (intangibles) I mentioned.....are worth about 3 points or so

NI ?.....FOCUS is on MAC games......tough as hell as a ROAD DOG......not so much in THIS SPOT......this game is important sure....but their goal is a MAC title.....they're gonna make a bowl anyway....>> the EDGE is with BC 
  * their D......esp run D..... is weak

I think BC......with an improved O.....(how much who TF knows sure)......will move it at least some.....on NI....I don't think NI moves it much at all tho.....on BC

$$   BC should win the game.....and IMO there is a strong chance they win by 3 or more...............



ONE NOTE.............

This game is a great eggzample..... of what's wrong with COVERS.....betting mentality........misconceptions......etc

MANY guys like the play......leading others to think that this some great LOCK.....or something
  * are there  2 threads or so?......WARNING guys... to not play BC !!

SO......win / lose.....discussion will carry over LONG into the following week......with " I told  you so's"......either way
  * esp if the bet loses.......oh it's a Covers blood bath < I told you !!


IDEA?......stop living / dying with each F'in play......whydontcha
  * maybe view each as a simple  'PROBABILITY'...>>  it's esp great if you can express the probability as a number %.....like that Double-Up does..............

WHY in TF......EMOTIONALLY tie yourself to each play?
  * WIN?.....brag on yourself for days
 * LOSE.....blame it on ANYTHING......whine about how you were screwed somehow.........BOTH incredibly CHILDISH right?

OK......why do SO MANY grown-azz men......do it?
  * check the threads......most EVERYBODY does it

PROBLEM?.......adding EMOTION to this......leads us to making STUPID decisions..................................


WOULD love to call a few names here.....but I'll resist ha......
  * older / SHARP handicappers here......spend ALL week going BACK and FORTH.....getting BOLDER as the week progresses...
$  you should be studying NEXT week here you dumbazz.....

THEN......wildazz celebrations if they win.....carrying over for 2-3 weeks sometimes....LOSE?.....criticism is such they must leave COVERS!................. 



BC loses?......I'll check the boxscore.....play / drive charts......etc 
  * see if anybody got hurt.....anything weird happen....pick 6 / ST TD......etc 

*  BC rushes for 5 yds/carry......out gains NI 350 to 250....basically controls the game......late KO return for TD / pick 6 costs me the win / cover.....I'm HAPPY > move on.......I DID MY JOB......did not play OR coach in this game



BC wins/ covers ?.....I might grin (briefly)......but still  go to boxscore....

NI out gains BC.....350-250.......BC is not able to run or move the chains consistently.....or shut down the NI running game.....
  * maybe a late NI turnover wins it for BC............I AM PISSED.....for 5-10 minutes........

Before moving on I see if I can 'play off' this one......either way
  * how does either prepare his team AFTER  a win / loss

page 98-99 in PLAYBOOK

NI ?....Carey is 21-10 ATS off a W.....only  4-9 off a L........
BC....Addazio is 10-11 off W.....12-9 off a L

NI got beat by W Illinois LY.....so (with @ Nebraska on deck)...they might be a bit more focused vs E Illinois next week......

BC.....BAD spot next week.....at home (weaker at home).....vs WF .....a team they beat LY......with NOTRE DAME on deck
   * Clawson tough as dog / good in revenge spot



WORK  >>  MAKE THE PLAY  >> MOVE ON
   * don't sweat GAME to GAME......even WEEK to WEEK......treat it as a continuous thing.....like a round of golf.....week 1 = 1st hole etc.........hole #2 starts?.....better forget hole #1................ 
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Posted: #193
Quote Originally Posted by dbasports:

Byu -2 in your 1 unit picks is confusing the garbage outta me lol


just now figured out what you guys were talking about...........
  *holy crap do I need a vacation.......already

Of course mean BOSTON COLLEGE.....for some reason had BYU in my  head.....continued to c/p same mistake .....sorry 'bout that
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Posted: #194
Sent you another private message .... I read your reply ...
 
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Posted: #195
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:



just now figured out what you guys were talking about...........
  *holy crap do I need a vacation.......already


Should have invited you on my vacation. Sitting now in my rented log house on 80 private acres overlooking my (rented) private lake in the Upper Peninsula of Meeeeeeeechigan. GOD's COUNTRY!!!
Catching Northern Pike from the dock, watching all the wildlife, and even the solar eclipse, ooooooooh,    PRICELESS.
 
But will be back in Nevada by weeks end all recharged.
 
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Posted: #196
Wanted to say I really appreciate your threads. I love all the info and the way you pool all the knowledge you can and my educated bets. I dont have time to scour the web (often), so knowing that you are on the case helps me and makes for a great read. 

BOL this season brother 
 
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Posted: #197
Good to see you bud. Let's do this. 
 
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Posted: #198
RUTGERS +31'........
  * my favorite play.....on a so-so card admittedly

STOP......... (you that think Rutgers is a bad play here).....and consider the BIG PICTURE.......and in this case is the number correct?.....OR is it INFLATED based on the public perceptions of these 2 teams......?


IF I gave each one of you a pop test on Rutgers......could ANYBODY pass?.................................hell no

 * you have the VIVID image in your mind...of Rutgers getting slaughtered....maybe looking like the worst team in the nation....right ?........and you know that Washington is pretty kick azz right?..........<  'nuff said BRO.....Rutgers SUX and has no shot BRO  .......compelling arguments..................................BUT

  
LY a ( MUCH WORSE)  Rutgers team learning ENTIRELY new systems......went TO Washington....to play a (hungry and loaded)  team off 7-6...............and.lost by 35
  * NOTE:  try to not get upset / call me names ..........but

Could Huskies RUN the ball......move the chains?.............NO
  * never got Gaskin going ....tried hard in 3rd seems like.....converted 3/12 on 3rd / 17 FD.......they averaged 3.0/rush...Gaskin finished with 57 yds.........
  * but BRO.....they didn't have to wtf !.......< stupid point....they killed 'em with big plays / ST TD...43...38...50 yds...+ 92 yd KO return + 68 yd PR..........

POINT:  a 31' pt road favorite.... that couldn't move the chains ( last year) .....had to RELY on big plays?...............
  * Their top big play guy.....is gone.....note Rutgers top RB (Robt Martin) DNP in this game




Rutgers season ended.....pretty much....with 5:53 left in the 2Q vs Iowa (4th game).....about to go in to score...1st / goal at Iowa 3 >> take 7-0 lead going into the half.....Iowa CB King stepped on WR Janarion Grant's ankle....following 76 yd catch / run....RU was SOD > Iowa drove 99 yds...... winning late 14-7  
 
Next week the slaughter began........Rutgers with horrific QB play / weak OC.....and now ZERO downfield threat.....couldn't move the ball......soon wore down their D.....totally
      note:  Grant (should) finish his career as the top PR / KR in NCAA history.....tied at 8 TD now
   
      $$$$    another reason Rutgers D wore down?......they played WAY too fast offensively.......they went 3 and out often.....and in a huge hurry...............WHY?...............
  * new OC Kill will be much smarter......not much doubt

HERE......they add Louisville QB Bolin.....get Grant back....add transfers at WR / TE / RB from Arkansas and Miami.......+ OC Kill?
  * this O (should be).....light years ahead of what we saw LY.....week 1?......maybe we'll see.....better for sure

Rutgers D?.....bad but not as bad as you might think.....finished #56 S&P......note TEXAS homers....Horns #60
  * recall Ash is one of nations top DC's.......here's a good article on Ash and his 4-3 OVER / quarters coverage.....tough vs spread O's

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2014/5/12/5675862/ohio-state-defensive-coordinator-2014-chris-ash


Washington?.....always hungry / tough under Peterson......AND (unfortunately)....tough on the road

BUT.....stepping back....looking at how their season unfolded and ENDED...........and checking out this years (back loaded) schedule......not much reason for Peterson to extend them EARLY..........
  * his MO here?.....get up early / remove any crowd edge......cruise 2H.....rest his starters.....EXTENDING the margin......with a huge blow-out ?....makes little sense.....you win this one CLEAN.....move on.....start 7-0 HEALTHY......going into the bye


WHO HAS THE MENTAL EDGE here?.....is it Washington....off a (surprising) play-off run....with a LONG season ahead......OR Rutgers.....a national embarrassment since week 5 of LY......folks LAUGHING at 'em ever since?...." you play for Rutgers wtf!"......
 
* WHICH team you reckon was more FOCUSED in their PREPARATION?.......how seriously are the Husky players taking Rutgers?.......a JOKE in their minds......................................

 *Do they wanna be embarrassed AGAIN.....at HOME?


WAIT....."so Washington doesn't care about this game BA?"....no idiot.....that's NOT what I said...........
  * IMO......Rutgers has the clear EDGE here....they're playing for their life here man.....pretty much.......Huskies simply ain't


LINE?...anyway you crunch 'em....tough to come up 31 or so....I would start this one at 28....would think an accurate / fair line would be 27' or so

Can they win / keep it close?.....unlikely because the Huskies will be TOUGH to run on.....meaning Bolin will have to throw......a LOT
  * plus Huskies should be able to run without much problem ......I would think Ash maybe plays a more bend/ don't break style on D....slows the pace on O.....IF they can avoid mistakes I see a 38-17 ......42-20 type game.............................
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Posted: #199
UNI.....Upside.....TRAIN.....DN........thanks boys BOL this week.....
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
 
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Posted: #200
.........I like the play......but one of the reasons I wrote this one up?...reading that Scalabrine's breakdown.... really nice job BTW....... ............you could just FEEL......the (confirmation) BIAS.....seeping thru.............

"stop telling me Rutgers is GOOD......they STINK! ....BRO......I know this for a fact......you ain't gonna convince me otherwise  !!!!"

 Scalabrine.....showing unbelievable restraint.....patiently addressed EACH..... 'concern'..........BTW....did ANYBODY check this one out...BEFORE you responded?...........doubt it

and.....
BEHOLD.....the TENSION building in your noggin.....when I said Washington couldn't move the chains last year........." I WATCHED THAT GAME BRO !!.....THEY KILLED 'EM ! ".......not what I said ha 



I woulda (fairly) quickly said...........LOOK dumbazz.....I'm telling you they are VERY likely to be MUCH better than people think....AND that the NUMBER.....is therefore WRONG.....simple....wtf is wrong with you man..........

In fact.....about a 5-7 pt difference between week 3-4 Rutgers.....and end of 2016 Rutgers.....this line is based (as most are) on end of 2016.....with a slight adjustment

SURE......Rutgers is building for a 2018 bowl bid.....probably
  * this year they're simply trying to hang on....get a foothold

IF.....the transfers produce.....esp Bolin (he stays healthy as well)....WR Grant stays healthy..... Rutgers could be a full 10 pts better...........>>  meaning it will take 3-4 weeks or more for oddsmakers to catch up....making 1-3 pt adjustments each week


A REMINDER..................

   THIS play.....and all others......is simply a (well researched).....and thought at the time......to be a solid recommendation.....offered by a complete stranger......online

IT MAY.....or MAY NOT work.......so use this advice from me and others......to simply HELP you make your decision.....................
  * you cowards / entitled pusssies......that will no doubt RUN to Scalabrine's thread to tell him what an idiot he was .....are the scum of the earth IMO....by all means try and run him off....like you did Boom and  the FREAK.....let's lower the IQ of this forum.....as low as it can go...................
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
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