line looks fair to me. Fedora made a mistake keeping Renner in UNC game. Guy had a concussion it looked like, but didn't even take him out for a series. UNC offense didn't look that same thereafter. Check Gio Bernard's status on this one. UNC with Gio would have had more opportunities as well.
Sometimes its best to look at games a week ahead and make lines on them before the current week's games kick off. Its amazing how well that has helped me avoid mistakes. I started doing it in college hoops last year and it helped me overreact immensely. I had this game at VILLE -1 a week ago fwiw.
I dont see where the line is off here or is "fishy" at all. If anything, it should be closer to a PK imo...
You said yourself, UNC won in an ugly game last year where UNC won by 7. Actually, they should have won by 14 if it were not for a last second backdoor TD by Ville to cover the number. If its going to another "ugly" game; I'll take the team that's getting +3.5. That's value.
UNC played done of its WORST defensive games in recent memory. Pure mistakes and missed assignment on a team that usually prides itself on a strong defensive line and secondary.
If Benard comes out healthy and Renner gets hot again, I could see a UNC flat out win. The main problem is in tthe secondary. They look lost. If Ville keeps the ball in the air and makes the big plays early, it could demoralize a comeback.
Prolly a stay way matchup here, but imo value lies with a good team coming off a lackluster performance where they lost on a game ending TD drive. Public perception will be that Ville is the play as they are the conference favorites vs a team who just lost to lowly Wake. Personally, I just see value in getting points here.
GL either way
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