maryland was my biggest bet of the season (W) last week and this week i am all over...

Texas +7.5

Once again, I dont expect the average capper on this site to agree with me but I dont care. I am here to post my plays, and everyone else should do the same. I never post in other people threads regardless if i agree or disagree with their selections. If I can help with some info, I post it, if not, I stay away. And you should do the same. I will never change my mind if someone else disagree with me, and you should never change your mind if someone tells you that you are wrong. The games have to be played on the field before we can judge a pick or a capper. Since last season when I started posting here I posted a lot more winners than losers and I will continue to do so. This play on Texas is my 2nd biggest bet of the season in college football.

Scouting Texas:

Texas looked like a better team this season up until last week when they lost to Oklahoma. Some people were actually saying that Texas football was back. Now we know that Texas is not that good. However, when you lose the turnover battle 5-1 against a team like Oklahoma, you have to be lucky to lose by only 38. Texas kept the ball for 38 minutes in that game and had the same number of first downs as Oklahoma (22). Their pass efficiency defense is stil ranked #1 in the Big 12 and Oklahoma State is a pass oriented team. The Longhorns offense will score early and often against that OKST defense.

Scouting OKST:

Many will say that Texas played a bunch of crappy teams before facing Oklahoma, and that is true. But who exactly did Oklahoma State play ? Just take a look at those defenses. Kansas dead last in CFB (#120), Arizona (#115), Tulsa (#110), Texas A&M (#99), and LAF (#57 but only one game played against a BCS school). So, maybe Oklahoma State offense isnt that great either. And how about their defense ranked #103 in the nation ? People just dont see the big picture sometimes. They will react and overreact to the most recent game like crazy. Oklahoma State is just not that good.

The X-factor:

Texas is 19-5 ATS after playing Oklahoma. Since 1998 they won every single game after playing Oklahoma (13-0) and since 1999 they covered all but one game after playing Oklahoma (11-1 ATS). Last season they lost to Okalhoma but upset Nebraska in their next game. Finally, if you think that they will be down after losing to Oklahoma, think again. They are 8-0 SU since 1993 and 11-1 ATS since 1984 after losing to Oklahoma by at least a TD.

Other plays:

Duke +14 buy 0.5

Virginia +7

clutchshot-

I agree with you on Ok. St. being overrated. No one seems to remember or see that their defense is like swiss cheese. I can see them covering this number against Texas but I really like the Team Total under for Ok. St. I haven't seen it out yet but with a total of 65 and a 7.5 pt. spread, i think the team total will be 36 to 38. I believe Texas will play ball control, which shouldn't be hard against this defense, and play well enough to keep Ok. St. from scoring more that 35 points.

Good luck on your play!

But they stil lost both games, right ?

They allowed 51 against Nebraska losing every quarter, and T.Martinez had a career day against that OKST defense with 5 touchdowns, 0 interceptions and 323 yards passing.  OKST had just over 25 minutes of possession.

Oklahoma scored 47 against OKST winning 3 of 4 quarters against them and they actually scored 47 against OKST despite turning the ball over 3 times. OKST had the ball for just over 24 minutes.

Good thinking there. GL

The only thing I am <over-thinking> here is wether or not I should take the Texas moneyline. If you were patient enough to read my writeup until the end, you would notice that I said that both teams were overrated, not only OKST. The only difference is that Texas got exposed while OKST is next in line. I never watch ESPN so that ESPN hype you are talking about is not influencing me.

Simply not true. Maryland had 2 turnovers in the game and Georgia Tech had only one. Both quarterbacks sucked, and Maryland simply outplayed Georgia Tech playing their own game. Maryland averaged 6 yards per carry on the ground and Georgia Tech averaged only 4.5 yards per carry. Remember that Maryland had a chance to win it late but they turned it over on downs close to midfield. Then they could not make the key 3rd down stop to get the ball again. Georgia Tech outplayed Maryland for three quarters and run out of gas. Thats what teams without defense do. You can run it up and down the field with your offense for some time, but that will wear you down at one point. Georgia Tech was doing it against everyone in first 4 weeks and then they got worn down late by both NCST and Maryland. They survived in both contests and it is just question of time when they will just lose one because they are getting exhausted. And it could very well happen this week as they play a team that had an extra week to prepare for them.

All this talk about OSU's defense being weak - they did hold Texas A&M to 0 offensive points in the 2H right?

And you think OSU can score 40 but lose? How will Texas score points? With Sims passing for what 400 yards? With their young RB's being a smallish OL pounding the ball for 200? Come on. This game shouldn't be 7.5 but 17.5. Fortunately there are lots of Horns fans out there with money to bet and minds to be deluded with BS.

so my guess is, you are betting your house on this one ? good luck with that. btw, texas fans are not taking texas after last weeks debacle. and no one who had money on them last week will pound them again. this is why just a selected few will collect here.

heres some info

OKLAHOMA ST is 1-0 against the spread versus TEXAS over the last 3 seasons

I just hope you man up if you are wrong about this game. I will get on this thread and admit you were right if the horns cover, I can't believe you are trying to tout them on ML. Tech blew that game out their ass with penalties, turnovers and missed wide open receivers. We can agree to disagree. Remember your look at me look at me post about N. Illinois/Wis? You were 0 for 3 and never commented on it afterwards. I hope you will own this one. I take you for another Covers attention person, who brags about your big pick winners and hopes your losers get buried. While we are talking trends,(tex after OU ATS) check out Ok State's road ATS the past two years with Weeden and pts scored on the road.

IMO, I'm not sure the "X-Factor" has anything to do with this game.  We are talking about a team (or teams in Texas & OSU) and a conference that has completely changed.  Gone are the days that Texas is dominate vs pratically everybody they play (except OU).  Back in the day, OU/Texas  WAS THE GAME, and then Texas would rattle off big wins vs the rest of the conference.  That has changed over the years.  More teams have been able to recruit very taleted players (see Robert Griffin here) therefore have a much better chance of playing with the "Big Boys".

My retort would be, since 1998, when is the last time Texas rolled a couple frosh QB's directly after an OU loss?  The stats you have given are impressive, but so was Texa's talent in those years.  Gone are the days of Colt McCoy, Ricky Williams, Roy Williams, Vince Young, Jamal Charles, etc, etc, etc. 

After watching those young QB's struggle play after play vs OU, I don't see how they all of a sudden look like Vince Young the very next game? 

Just my .02