Memphis/Frisco Bowl

West Virginia is a shell of itself heading into tomorrow's game against Memphis.  Its two primary receiving threats are out due to injury, its best LB/defender and starting CB have entered the portal.  Their OC is keeping the seat warm until Rich Rod shows up to take over again.

Memphis averages both more yds/per play and points/per play than W Virginia as well as has better metrics on defense for both YPP and PPP.  I've had a decent amount of success using these numbers this season when all four point in one direction.  

For both of these reasons, I expect Memphis to beat a demoralized and less potent West Virginia tomorrow by at least a touchdown.

yep

Thanks jacked 

BOL on your bowl plays 

Jacked.....agree with you. 

Maybe you can explain why the spread moved from -5 to -4.5.  That certainly is in opposition to your points.  BOL on your bet

I read WVU has 15 opt-outs?

@Cooler999

 No idea. Only speculate that money started coming in on WV enough to move it back a tad?  5 is a pretty big number for a P5 to be favored by. I don’t think it matters.  I’d have bet it at 5 and possibly up to 5.5. 

@mak104

 7 portal, 4 injured.

https://www.covers.com/ncaaf/bowl-game-opt-out-tracker#frisco

@jackedward32

 I lean to Memphis as well.  But most of the WVU opt outs, from I have read, are non-impact players.  https://www.sportskeeda.com/college-football/news-frisco-bowl-opt-outs-injury-report-top-memphis-west-virginia-players-playing

The biggest piece is starting WVU LB Josiah Trotter, and then #2 WR Traylon Ray.  I'm seeing their #1 WR is still in (Clement).  I don't see anything about a starting CB entering portal.

The coaching change I agree plays negatively to WVU....who simply just isn't a good football team.  Not a strong play, because its a meaningless game, but I like Memphis to cover by 5.

Very possible. Only problem I have with those stats is the difference in the level of competition. WVU has played the far tougher schedule. And even though Rich Rod isn't coaching this game, the players MAY be inspired to impress their new coach. Tough call.

@hack82

Two of their best receivers, Jaden Bray and Traylon Ray are out with injuries.  Granted, WV is more run focused than most (60% of their plays called are runs), but losing those pieces take a chunk out of their offense when they need completions.

@jackedward32

 good friend works in WVU Athletic Dept., we discussed the matchup and he ditto almost verbatim your post. Hard Rock line up to -6 here in Florida.

BOL on all your picks jacked32

32 

Between West Virginia's injuries and portals, the Interim coach, throwing in the towel their last game, you have to go with Memphis who is playing better ball on both sides of the ball. This West Virginia is only a shell of the team they should be. They went 0-3 against ranked teams this year. People are giving West Virginia to much credit on past performances, this team is not those teams.