MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE @ MARSHALL: This one utilizes the ULTRA-RARE "Playing for the deceased" Angle

Record: 26-11 (>70%)

The pick:

Marshall +9 over Middle Tennessee State

We have lots of angles and they are all intertwined so let's get right to them!

1. The "Honoring the Deceased" Angle

This is a great one. If you are going to fade this angle, you better be careful.

I capped a game years ago, up, down and into next week and it involved this angle. One problem: The media didn't publicize the fact the deceased were being honored to the degree they should have, and at kick-off, when I realized what was going on, I knew I was dead.

The game was Rutgers -4 @ UConn. Rutgers was fighting for a Bowl and UConn was just terrible. Rutgers was superior in the passing game/run game and defensively. It should have covered.

One problem: UConn was honoring Sandy Hook victims in that game. UConn won outright.

So we won't fade this angle, we'll utilize it!

Marshall is honoring it's 1971 football, team the team that came after the 1970 team. That 1970 team had 75 people (players, staff, crew, citizens) die in the worst American sports accident of all time.

Typically, players wear a patch or a decal. Marshall in previous years wore a somber black jersey.

Folks, as a tribute, and a very poignant one, the number 75, which again, represents 75 lost lives, will be emblazoned in giant numbers on the back of Marshall's helmets. The helmets will also be throwbacks to the exact ones worn by that team.

You can how they will look here:

 https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2674434-marshall-honors-plane-crash-victims-on-45th-anniversary-with-helmet-decal

This is very powerful. They are actually honoring the 1971 team which is the team Marshall used to rebuild their program but the 75 carries all the meaning of why they were rebuilding.

Not to lose the power of the psychological angle here, that 1971 team had the greatest win in program history over Xavier.

https://www.scout.com/college/marshall/story/572633-september-25-1971-marshall-15-xavier-13

They didn't need points in that game folks. They beat Xavier straight up. They made a movie about it called we are Marshall in 2006.

That started a coinciding "We are Marshall" anniversary of which this is the special 10th Anniversay tomorrow.

So we have the 1) 45th anniversary of the 1971 team 2) honoring the 1970 team crash victims 3) tied into the We are Marshall 10th Anniversary.

There's a lot going on at Marshall tomorrow folks. Lots of psychological motivation for a terrible team. If you can't win when you are honoring the deceased, when can you?

But there is more:

2. Middle Tennessee State just lost it's star QB Brent StockStill

The kid is an absolute stud. And now he is gone. Good for Marshall backers no?

27 TD's 5Int's and 2800 yards.

Look at the game log:

https://www.espn.com/college-football/player/gamelog/_/id/545683/brent-stockstill

Sensational. And it's all gone.

His backup is John Urzua. This 19 year kid has started ZERO college games. He came in two games in relief this year. Game 1 and that last one. He's not chopped liver. He has a big arm.

I would say this is Star Player Out Other Players Step Up angle but StockStill was so incredible it is too tough to play up that angle. Plus that angle could have been applied the last game when Stockstill went down and the angle fell flat on its face.

In addition Urzua came in in the second quarter against UTEP and went 14 for 27 for 161 with THREE INTs and one lost fumble (FOUR turnovers on just the QB). They fell at home 45-25 to an unremarkable but halfway decent UTSA team.

But there is a deeper layer here too. It affects the head coach.

Stockstill's father IS the head coach. This is how he reacted to the  news his son will have screws and plates in his broken collarbone:

“He asked the doctors, ‘Can I go back and play?’” Rick Stockstill said. “They said, ‘No, it could kill you. The bones could puncture something.’ He asked, ‘Has anybody ever played with it?’ They said, ‘No.’ He said, ‘Well, can I be the first?’ “I think that shows the toughness and competitiveness, the leadership and love he has for this team. He is going to be missed.”

Oh, he's going to be missed alright. His father will have a bit of an adjustment relaying plays and direction to someone other than his son.

But there is more:

3. Marshall is playing terrible

This is an advantage? Yes. Counter-intuitive? Yes.

Do you remember I kept talking about Rutgers vs. Minnesota while RU was on a 17 game losing streak? Then we backed them and they won on the final day of the season as two point favorites. Well Marshall isn't a favorite here. They are home and they are heavy dogs.

Losing streaks are GREAT motivators because they cause a team to break out of a slump in a BIG way. But the key is knowing when that will happen.

When you are honoring the deceased and the other team has their superstar out AND you are playing at home AND you are in this miserable season where you want a win, any win, to regain some confidence, if this is not the game to win, what is?

Marshall is so bad this year they lost to CHARLOTTE, at HOME. That's bad folks. But when you are bad to the bone, you just have to know when that bone will break. And with all this on a silver platter, I think Marshall is ready to break out of this funk. And we don't even have to be right because we get such a generous spread of 9.

I want to be clear. Middle Tennessee has a great running game. in fact they have two great backs. BUT their game plan, to RUN, is already evident with the change beneath center. They have weapons at wide receiver too. This team can score. That is why with all the above we are still getting 9 here.

They have leaks in their game though. They've given up an average of 276 rushing yards over their last 4 games. There is room to move the ball on them here.

What that means is that Middle Tennessee will try to run AND Marshall will try to run. This is a lot of clock management and ball control which eats up clock. That's a good thing when you get a number like this. It's not huge like +21, but it's nice in that situation.

When a team is playing as poorly as Marshall is, you have to look for the opportune time to nail them with a big spread. We get that here and we are at home.

I want to be clear. I pick one CFB and one NFL game a week. The NFL game I like tomorrow has a line that has moved poorly. I am not picking MORE games than usual. I am replacing one NFL game with one CFB game.

If you don't like it, leave it. If Marshall comes out flat and gets drilled at home with all this on the table, we ALL deserve to lose. All of us. I absolutely don't think that will happen. I think Marshall can win outright and we have a boatload of insurance at 9 points. And we make this pick respectfully for the deceased just as Marshall plays the game respectfully. 

Oh and, this is of little importance but I'll mention it: Middle Tennessee burned Marshall players and bettors last year with a comeback 27-24 win in Triple OT as -2.5 pt favorites. That one stung for the team and Marshall backers. It's time to take it back here if you were on that game. I wasn't but I felt for ya if you were.

I like WVU over Texas more so if that is a moderate play make this a bit less. Marshall's stats are not to be mentioned here. They are awful. This is purely psychological and angle-based. But it is a great angle and a rare angle it is worth a post. Let's hope it pulls through!

Quote Originally Posted by HarDix:

First page!  woop!  

'

Did you cap and pick the McGregor fight Wahoo? Give me some 411!

thanks scal I actually stoped by to see if u got anything posted and sure enough there it is . glad I checked in good luck to us   marshall it is