Miss st, other picks and why

Well LSU did disappoint us - but we hit tulsa, vandy, and ga tech - record stands at 12-2.  Let's make it a new year to remember - let's look at the nw/miss st game (the best game on the board in my opinion):

       Nw       63 53 32 50      (82)

    3 Miss St  78 60  39  53    (92)

In this game I call it a 4/0 situation because NW is better in every category.  However, the opening line on the game was Miss st by 3 pts.  The reason this game is the best on the board - very rarely do you see an opening line with the 0 team favored.  Since I've been tracking these games - my notes say bet a 0 team favorite big.  There was only one game during the season where this situation occurred - Az st at Mizzou and mizzou won the game but did not cover - the line dropped but they still did not cover but won su - I took them on the m/l and in a teaser.  The beauty of the miss st game - they opened up as a 3 pt fav - the line switched to nw by 2.5 now it's dropped to 1.5.  I took Miss st. on the M/line +100.    The other games I like - Michigan and the points.  From my posts you can see i'm not an over/under guy, however, there is one scenario where I am -  Nebraska and ga - take the over - this is what I call a 3/1C situation - typically lots of points are scored and over/unders hit. I have teasers with these three as well.  Happy new year all and good luck.

I'm leaving the ok st game alone. heading to bed. 

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Had a great day on Saturday - we are 9-1.  Today - i'm liking vandy - let's look at some numbers:

        Nc st  51  81  69 71      (140)

6.5   Vandy 69  17  31  42   (73)

This what I call a 1 A/3 situation  - Nc st is only better in total offfense.  Typically the team that has the best sagarin composite wins out and covers.  Percentage wise the data resides on the side of Vandy.  I'm taking vandy - good luck all.

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Yesterday we hit vatech and ohio - I flubbed it up on tt - record sits at 5-1.  Let's look at some numbers for Navy and az st. (best game on the board in my opinion):

         Navy   79  57  74  91

14.5  Azst    31  26   22  37 

Az st opened up as a 14.5 fav. it's hovering around 14. As you can see az st is better than navy in every category (lower the better).  Based on history of bowl games (since 2009)  when you have what I call a 0/4 scenario and the line is in double digits - the favorite usually covers - this was the scenario with Utah st and toledo.  Anyways, i'm riding the pony and going with az st.  

The other games - I like Rice but this is a be careful game - so don't go crazy.  The games between tcu/mich st and wva/Syracuse - these are what I call 3/ 1 B situations  Mich st and Syracuse are only better in total defense;  When the lines are small in this scenario - this indicates the games should be close - the question - how close?  This is where we need to increase our margin of error - do a teaser between mich st and Syracuse, or match them up with az st. or do them all.   The other game - I believe the starting qb is not playing - simply a lean - oreg. st.  Good luck all.

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South Carolina - 4.5

Off - 87

Def - 12

Sang - 9*

Sang Sch - 33 

Composite - 42

Michigan +4.5

Off - 80*

Def - 11*

Sang - 18

Sang Sch - 30* 

Composite - 48

Opposite of Ga / Ne game...does this make under appetizing?

MICH & POINTS

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Wisconsin +6

Off - 62*

Def - 13*

Sang - 21

Sang Sch - 34 

Composite - 55

Stanford - 6

Off - 83

Def - 21

Sang - 11*

Sang Sch - 16*

Composite - 27

Not sure…gut tells me WI. I have not followed a AB/CD situation yet with similar spread.

However, seems like it will be close, so i like the points based on what we have seen with close games this bowl season. Like Monte Ball to eat up clock. Thoughts?

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N Ill +14.5

Off - 15*

Def - 35

Sang - 35

Sang Sch - 125 

Comp - 160

FL State -14.5

Off - 24

Def - 2*

Sang - 14*

Sang Sch - 71* 

Comp - 85

1A / 3 with 14.5 point spread, have you seen this trend before? The .5 scares me from taking FL state, so I am thinking N IL. 

Once again, look forward to learning from your perspective.

Bank shaft - I go to either statfox.com or sportsnetwork.com - lot's of great info. on both. but look up ncaa football stats - total yards - they avg it out and give your ranks.

I have not been able to track over/unders consistently except the 3/1c situation - thus don't have an opinion on mich gm.

okst. i'm not messing with it because the number is too high and I don't have data supporting a number that high - thus avoding it.

Still need to look at the later games.

Allsteele - I don't understand les miles - and the qb has to go - spilled milk - gotta move on.

Dipset - yea if I remember they did cover the 3 pt line. thanks.

Thanks for the well wishes all - let's make some bucks today.

Bankshaft,

I am glad to see there is math to support almost every play I like today...I took the UGA/Neb over at 57 when it opened it and now wish I had played a lot more, and I lean w/Miss St, Mich, Wisc, and N. ILL.....GL

HAPPY new Year , Great work

Bankshaft - the numbers for total off and total def. should be for the season - bowl games are not included.  the sagarin numbers may change slightly but that's based on games played after the season ended.  all my data is from the end of the season. 

What you need to do is print out the opening lines and start tracking the data and you will start understanding the patterns.  It will take you several years to get a good feel for when to do what - be warned the season trends are different from the bowl games and don't always lineup as discussed here. Do the steps in any stats book - collect, organize, analyze etc. Also, I posted a step by step in the strategy section of this site - CFB: a system to consider - that may help you as well.