Look, I'm not a savant here. But here's the problem I got with taking Washington. This is the highest spread you can reasonably make them. I mean you can't make them -9 or -10. But you could make the rationale that they're too big a fav and it should be -4.5. That's honestly where I think it probably should be. Maybe -6. But I think at -7 there is pretty much no value.
Colorado has the feel of a gritty team. I watched them play at Michigan earlier in the year. They were leading that game into the 3rd before their QB went down. And they played really well on offense against arguably the best D in the nation on their home field. Washington is good overall, obviously, but they have issues.
Colorado also lost by only 4 at USC. Washington lost to them at home by 13. Now, obviously Washington has performed a little better overall vs everyone in terms of general winning margins.
The concern I might have about Colorado is this is a very big stage for them. Even though Washington is new to this stage, they have a better coach so you feel like they handle it better. I will say though that Colorado is a much more physical D than Wash St who proved to be a bit of a fraud last week, although greatly improved. They could put no pressure on Browning. And I think Colorado has the line to be able to get to him and that's a huge difference. They can also hold their own on the run game. My gut feeling tells me this is a 3-4 point game and that Colorado won't go down easy, but Washington will prevail by making more crucial plays late in the game.
It's hard to gage just how good Washington is because they play no physical teams in the Pac 12 except USC and Utah who did well against them. The rest of the teams are really terrible, or completely one dimensional like Stanford.
Also, I think the mental edge goes to Colorado. They go in thinking no one is giving them a shot to win. That wasn't the case last week as a ton of people picked Wast St, including me, and Washington felt they had something to prove. This week Washington has something to defend, not something to prove. Colorado has nothing to lose. They get the Rose Bowl no matter what happens here. But clearly Washington has to win this game to get into the playoff. And right now I think their stock is very high with Colorado's stock being in the middle and from my experience you buy low and sell high.
But as I've said repeatedly, NCAAF has such unbalanced schedules there's still a guessing game that goes on even at this point in the bowl season.
Look, I'm not a savant here. But here's the problem I got with taking Washington. This is the highest spread you can reasonably make them. I mean you can't make them -9 or -10. But you could make the rationale that they're too big a fav and it should be -4.5. That's honestly where I think it probably should be. Maybe -6. But I think at -7 there is pretty much no value.
Colorado has the feel of a gritty team. I watched them play at Michigan earlier in the year. They were leading that game into the 3rd before their QB went down. And they played really well on offense against arguably the best D in the nation on their home field. Washington is good overall, obviously, but they have issues.
Colorado also lost by only 4 at USC. Washington lost to them at home by 13. Now, obviously Washington has performed a little better overall vs everyone in terms of general winning margins.
The concern I might have about Colorado is this is a very big stage for them. Even though Washington is new to this stage, they have a better coach so you feel like they handle it better. I will say though that Colorado is a much more physical D than Wash St who proved to be a bit of a fraud last week, although greatly improved. They could put no pressure on Browning. And I think Colorado has the line to be able to get to him and that's a huge difference. They can also hold their own on the run game. My gut feeling tells me this is a 3-4 point game and that Colorado won't go down easy, but Washington will prevail by making more crucial plays late in the game.
It's hard to gage just how good Washington is because they play no physical teams in the Pac 12 except USC and Utah who did well against them. The rest of the teams are really terrible, or completely one dimensional like Stanford.
Also, I think the mental edge goes to Colorado. They go in thinking no one is giving them a shot to win. That wasn't the case last week as a ton of people picked Wast St, including me, and Washington felt they had something to prove. This week Washington has something to defend, not something to prove. Colorado has nothing to lose. They get the Rose Bowl no matter what happens here. But clearly Washington has to win this game to get into the playoff. And right now I think their stock is very high with Colorado's stock being in the middle and from my experience you buy low and sell high.
But as I've said repeatedly, NCAAF has such unbalanced schedules there's still a guessing game that goes on even at this point in the bowl season.
I think this is a game where you bet Colorado or stay away. I just don't think they have any major advantages. The D is close to a wash. The O is close to a wash . . . I mean I guess you lean Washington? But Colorado has had good QB play and they got a guy who can scramble. Washington is the better running team, but I don't think they'll run all over Colorado's line. I don't know who has the better kicker, but in terms of the O and D matching up I don't see a big adv for Washington. The only thing like I said that I could like about Washington covers is if Colorado plays really crumby on offense under the pressure and they just fold.
Washington may cover, but I think taking them is a bad bet. Everyone on this forum likes to make favorites as their big play every week. No one ever takes the dog.
I think this is a game where you bet Colorado or stay away. I just don't think they have any major advantages. The D is close to a wash. The O is close to a wash . . . I mean I guess you lean Washington? But Colorado has had good QB play and they got a guy who can scramble. Washington is the better running team, but I don't think they'll run all over Colorado's line. I don't know who has the better kicker, but in terms of the O and D matching up I don't see a big adv for Washington. The only thing like I said that I could like about Washington covers is if Colorado plays really crumby on offense under the pressure and they just fold.
Washington may cover, but I think taking them is a bad bet. Everyone on this forum likes to make favorites as their big play every week. No one ever takes the dog.
I think this is a game where you bet Colorado or stay away. I just don't think they have any major advantages. The D is close to a wash. The O is close to a wash . . . I mean I guess you lean Washington? But Colorado has had good QB play and they got a guy who can scramble. Washington is the better running team, but I don't think they'll run all over Colorado's line. I don't know who has the better kicker, but in terms of the O and D matching up I don't see a big adv for Washington. The only thing like I said that I could like about Washington covers is if Colorado plays really crumby on offense under the pressure and they just fold.
Washington may cover, but I think taking them is a bad bet. Everyone on this forum likes to make favorites as their big play every week. No one ever takes the dog.
I think this is a game where you bet Colorado or stay away. I just don't think they have any major advantages. The D is close to a wash. The O is close to a wash . . . I mean I guess you lean Washington? But Colorado has had good QB play and they got a guy who can scramble. Washington is the better running team, but I don't think they'll run all over Colorado's line. I don't know who has the better kicker, but in terms of the O and D matching up I don't see a big adv for Washington. The only thing like I said that I could like about Washington covers is if Colorado plays really crumby on offense under the pressure and they just fold.
Washington may cover, but I think taking them is a bad bet. Everyone on this forum likes to make favorites as their big play every week. No one ever takes the dog.
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