Posted:
#1
I will be betting Under 45 in this game. Here is why:
Michigan State has a great defense and a completely unproven offense. As most of you likely know LeVeon Bell forwent his senior season to go pro. That is a major hit to the MSU offense. Bell rushed for 1793 yards last year on 382 carries. That was good for 92.3% of MSU's rushing yards. He also hauled in 32 passes good for 5th in receptions on last years team. That is a lot of offense to replace. I do expect the passing game to be much improved from last year (hard to go anywhere but up), but MSU will be missing Starting Right Tackle Fou Fonoti from the starting lineup and will be without their 3rd guard Jack Allen because of injury. MSU will likely be experimenting with a number of RBs and we will probably see Connor Cook following starter Andrew Maxwell at some point in the game.
On the Western Michigan side let me first say that everything I know about WMU football besides their mascot I learned in the last couple days. That being said, they are missing their top 2 receivers from last year, after posting 41 catches for 629 yards and 5 TDs Eric Monette graduated, and their leading receiver last year, Sophmore Jamie Wilson broke his ankle and will not play in the game. Between the two of them they combined for 40.8% of WMU receiving yards last year and 35.5% of their total receptions. WMU does return their top RB, but as I expect they will be down early they will probably be leaning on their Senior QB to keep them in the game.
WMU has started their season on the road against big 10 opponents the last 4 seasons. In those games:
Last year: lost to Illinois 24-7 (as 10 pt dog and 50.5 O/U)
2011: lost to Michigan 34-10 (as 14.5 dogs and 57.5 O/U)
2010: lost to MSU 38-14 (as 22.5 pt dog and 50.5 O/U)
2009: lost to Michigan 31-7 (as 13 pt dog and 53 O/U)
That shows us that these games tend to be low scoring. All but the MSU game in 2010 went under both the posted number and the lower number of todays game. Notably that MSU team was much more explosive offensively behind Kirk Cousins and the defense was not as good as I expect this years squad to be.
For MSU in similar games:
last year they played Central Michigan week 2 winning 41-7 as 18 pt favs and a o/u of 48. CMU's only TD came on a pick six with under 2 minutes left in the game thrown by backup QB Connor Cook.
MSU also played Eastern Michigan in week 4 winning 23-7 as 31.5 pt favs w/ an o/u of 47.5. That game was extremely ugly don't want to get into it.
In week 1, two years ago MSU beat Youngstown St 28-6 as 34 pt favs and an o/u of 61.5.
The next week they blanked Florida Atlantic 44-0 (-32, o/u 49).
week 4 they beat CMU 45-7 (-21.5, o/u 49.5).
So as we can see, in the last 2 years when MSU played as big favs against out of conference teams they never yielded more than 7 pts. I expect more of the same tonight.
I will be surprised if MSU puts up more than 34 pts and if WMU puts up more than 10. Therefore the under seems like a very good play tonight.
BOL to everyone with all your bets. Lets make some 
0
BOL
Good Luck
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