my best systems - with indepth writeups and analysis

In this rivalery game SMU covered the spread in 6 of last 8 meetings. I know that SMU played two cupcakes last two weeks but their wins were stil impressive. They were especially impressive on defense as they allowed no points against Memphis and only 7 points against NWST. Those 7 points allowed to NWST came with just over a minute left when SMU led 40-0. And by the way, those 7 NWST points came as a result of a fumble recovery returned for a 93 yards TD. SMU allowed 7 first downs in each of last two games. As for TCU, they are stil talented but not as talented as they were last two or three seasons. Underdogs that allowed 26 or less last week, 15 or less the week before, and scored 35 or more in last week and the week before are 90-38 ATS. SOUTHERN METHODIST +11.5

Another rivalery game and another dog for me. Unlike in the TCU/SMU series where the underdog had a lot of success in the past, this is a series where the favorite and the better known school had a lot of success in previous matchups. However, when these two teams play at Miami of Ohio, the home side is much more competitive. The last time Cincy was there, they had one of their best teams ever and struggled a lot against one of the worst teams ever. Back then Cincinnati was perfect in the regular season while Miami of Ohio finished 1-11 and had no wins and 4 losses going into the game against the Bearcats.  Winless underdogs that lost their last game by 8 or more as home favorites of more than a FG and less than a TD are 26-3 ATS. MIAMI OF OHIO +14 -120

Texas is doing better this season than last season but so is Iowa State. Iowa State beat Iowa in overtime and then went to UCON on short rest and won as a dog there too. That tells me all I need to know about the caracter of their team. They are now well rested, they believe, and they have a hated conference rival in a big look-ahead situation. Some of the worst upsets Texas suffered in recent years came before their game against Oklahoma. And next week it is their big game against the Sooners. Perfect spot for another upset. McCoy is inexperienced and you dont want to have an inexperienced on-field leader before a huge game. Unbeaten Texas teams are 6-15 ATS against other unbeaten teams  IOWA STATE +10 -115

Best of Luck

Colorado State picked up a big win last week in overtime against Utah State and now face another non conference opponent before clashing with Boise two weeks from now. Taugh situation for Colorado State, especially since they are banged up and SJSU just played their best game in a while last week. This is definately their softest spot of the schedule after playing a close game against their rivals Colorado and that OT game in Utah State in back-to-back weeks. Those soft spot can be really hard to overcome. Favorites that won their last game in OT as +7.5 to +13.5 dogs, while scoring 21 or more are 0-11 ATS. The play is SAN JOSE STATE +3

Thats it for this week. I will post my NFL plays later this week in that same thread from last week. Good luck.

Yes but I am not taking ORST.

One late add...

Texas Tech struggling on defense is going on the road after playing two extreme cupcakes and one team that lost almost all talent from last year. They got outgained big time against Nevada, and needed a lot of energy and effort to win that game. In week 1 they were owned by Texas State for almost three full quarters. Their only easy win this season came against one of the worst CFB teams in last 3 seasons, New Mexico. So far this season they are not playing well enough to be favored on the road against anyone in the Big 12. Unbeaten road favorites of 15 or less, with records from 3-0 to 8-0, are 0-22 ats against conference revenge of 15-26 pts, if they play a home conference revenge next week. KANSAS +7 buy half point.

Full card for this week:

SOUTHERN METHODIST +11.5

MIAMI OF OHIO +14

IOWA STATE +10

SAN JOSE STATE +3

KANSAS +7

FWIW, I am not a CFB specialist, as I focus a lot more on NFL. I spend about 40 hours a week capping NFL and just about 20 hours capping CFB. So, please bet accordingly. Good luck !

Quote Originally Posted by Torreny3:

Can you make a new thread for this week's plays? It's much easier to read than scrolling through pages of an old thread. Enjoyed reading your thread last week, looking forward to checking out this weeks.

Its much easier for me to keep it in one thread, as long as that thread is not too long. If it gets too crowded I will start a new one.

The last time Cincy was there, they had one of their best teams ever and struggled a lot against one of the worst teams ever.

LOL, you mean this game was close 2 years ago when it was 37-13?

CINCY romps and all signs point toward this

in that game #10 cincy was favored by 30 points on the road but they led by only 10 four minutes into the fourth quarter. miami of ohio had more first downs, red short freshman dysert, playing in his 2nd start ever, had more passing yards and 10 more passing completions than tony pike, and cincinnati was frustrated for the most part of that game as evidenced by the 7 penalties for 85 yards. miami kept the ball for over 40 minutes while cincinnati had it for 19+ minutes. miami tried an onside kick down 10 in the fourth, got the ball, and that drive went all the way down to the cincinnati 3 yards line and ended with an interception in the end zone. so, they were close to cut it down to 3 with about 5 minutes left in the 4th as a 30 pts dog. and by the way, cincinnati got off to an early lead only because miami had a 6 yards punt and then also a missed fake punt at their own 27 yards line that resulted in two quick tds for cincinnati early on. if you are serious about this biz, then you have to look a little bit deeper. it is not enough to look at the score only. and if you didnt know, this is one of the oldest rivaleries in the country, and taking 2 tds with the home team led by a junior qb who has the experience is the only way to go. can cioncinnati cover this line ? sure they can. but your are not getting any value laying 2 tds on the road in a rivalery.