My Biggest Play All Season, This Favorite Covers By Double Digits

Pittsburgh Panthers @ Rutgers Scarlett Knights

Play: Pittsburgh Panthers -6 ½ (-113)

Rating: Best Bet

There are only a few times each season that I feel confident enough betting my maximum on a game. Today at 3:30pm EST is the first opportunity to do so this season. Formidable information has paired together with a excellent spot to present a 6 ½ point favorite that will win the game by 14+.

When this game opened last Sunday Pittsburgh -9, I thought nothing of this game. In my opinion it was a true line that presented no betting value. By Monday evening, my opinion had changed drastically. From Sunday afternoon to Monday evening, I watched as this line was completely manipulated by the market. When most people think of manipulation, they think of the line moving up or down due to a influx of action on a particular side. As this is most often the case, there are occurrences where the line is intentionally driven down in order to buy back the favorite. Those following along closely are witnessing the latter today.

Money being wagered offshore flows through a specific pattern much like it does on the strip in Las Vegas. The first lines to come out offshore from Tony at 5Dimes and Henry at Pinnacle. The lines filter down through the other books in Central America and then open in the European markets (Bwin, Will Hill, VC) a few hours later. The most influential and meaningful line movements happen in the three hour window right after open when this lines filter through the CA Offshore Books. This line was sent out at Pitt -9 and in those three hours, was bet down to Pitt -7 ½. This is where the line opened at all the other shops late Sunday or early Monday.

In my opinion, the market manipulation did not take place until Monday afternoon when money moved this line across the key number of 7. In a matter of 15 minutes at three sharp books, the line went from 7.5 to 6.5 and back to 7.5. This move shows me there was a flurry of action on Rutgers and an even bigger buy back on Pittsburgh. Rarely do you ever see a move like this in such a short time frame. In fact, it happened so quick that the known square books as well as the European markets didn’t move their line an inch. They all opened at 7.5 and didn’t move until this morning. Seeing this eliminates the fact of public opinion moving the line and confirms market manipulation.

With a flag on Pittsburgh, I dug into the game and found that the Panthers are in an excellent spot this afternoon. First off, this team is superior off of an extended week. Over the past two seasons the Panthers are 9-1 ATS when coming off more then six days rest. I also love the fact that Pittsburgh is coming off a win SU as a Dog at home. Playing teams coming off a win SU as an underdog favored in their next game is a profitable long term angle. The win as a SU dog, especially at home, injects confidence into a team. Confidence is a huge factor when it comes to handicapping the NCAA. After the performance last Thursday, the Panthers could not have a bigger jolt of confidence.

Rutgers on the other hand is in very peculiar spot. They have no run game and a extremely mediocre passing attack. Their offense is one dimensional…unfortunately that one dimension is a field goal kicker. The Scarlet Knights defense has been hyped up all week. Who have they played? NC Central, North Carolina, Ohio U, Syracuse. They have played pancakes all season, one of which they lost too. Throw out the first game of the season and Rutgers is giving up 24 points per game, almost 10 more then their 15.8 average shown in the rankings.

Pittsburgh has turned the corner with their up-tempo option offense. Almost all of the players on the Panthers have never been involved with an offense such as this one. It takes time to learn. They showed major improvements last week from the Notre Dame loss two weeks ago. With an extra three days of practice, I expect this offense to improve yet again. Rutgers coming off a double overtime win will only have had five days to prepare and try simulate the speed and pace of play of Pitt in practice. Look for second ranked rusher in the nation Ray Graham to really take advantage of Rutgers in the second half as fatigue sets in.

We saw the books adjust to Pittsburgh’s 0-3 start ATS. Today we see the books adjust to Rutgers 4-0 start against the number. This one is going to get ugly.

PITTSBURGH 34 RUTGERS 17