My Bowl Picks 2010

I will try and post all my plays in here for the 2010 bowl season for those that might be interested.

I don't bet more than 2 units on a game very often and I don't bet all the games so some people might be disappointed.

I've gone through play by plays of every game between DIV I teams all season and have graded each game (along with the help of a friend I hired).  I have all these statistics so I can get a decent idea of what the line should be from a statistical standpoint based on yards per play and a few other factors such as special teams, turnovers, success rates (based on down situations). 

I try to combine my mathematical model with some situational analysis and motivational factors that I like to consider for bowl games.  I likely don't have time to have full writeups for majority of games, but if anyone has questoins let me know.

Anyways on to the games....

New Mexico Bowl:

BYU -11.5 (lean with under) vs UTEP:  No bet here and I don't really even have a lean other than the under. Double digit dogs are usually good bets in bowls (53-32-2 ATS), but BYU is the far better team, especially since Mendenhall took over as DC (and started calling his own plays) after the Utah St game.  I discounted all defensive stats prior to that game, and discounted all offensive stats from the first few games played with Nelson under center ( he did improve a bit towards the end of the year but counted all his starts).  UTEP is obviously one of the worst teams in the bowls and HC Price is 0-2 ATS in bowls with UTEP.  Mendenhall is 3-2 ATS with BYU.  I don't see much of a reason to bet this game, line is about right IMO and tough to lay that kind of number in a bowl game.

Math:  BYU -12.7, total 46.5

they should only be disappointed if you did bet all the games gcn

BOL with bowl season bud

moo --

It will be fun to compare my plays with yours as the bowl season progresses. Your posts are among a very few around here that warrant a look. Of course, that's just my opinion.

My bowl strategy for many years has been pretty simple:

Good Coach + Good Quarterback + Motivation = Consideration

I know that's very generalized. But if you're able to get good information on that last variable in the equation, more times than not it's going to work out.

GL this bowl season.

Thanks for posting gcnmoo.

Humanitarian Bowl:

NIU -1.5 (lean) over Fresno St:  I've talked about this game at length in various threads, so there's not to much to be said that I haven't said.  In summary, my main concern is NIU's coaches all being gone and they have a lame duck coach in for the championship (LBer coach).  They will have a new coach for next year (Wisconsins DC), so you wonder how much energy he will be putting into this game.  All the coaches and players are saying the right things, so I will give them the benefit of the doubt, but not enough to make this a bet.  They still have 12 assistants on hand for the game, but I'm sure their is a challenge when your 3 most important coaches leave suddenly. 

As for the game, NIU was the better team this year based on my numbers.  I discounted their first offensive game without QB Harnish.  They pretty much rolled through the rest of their schedlue offensively with him at the helm and I have them +1.0 yards per play better on offense with Harnish and +0.95 overall compared to Fresno being +0.11 overall.  NIU has slightly worse special teams, but should hold the turnover edge over Fresno St (Harnish has been careful with the ball and NIU tends to keep it on the ground).  Fresno has a poor run defense that should be exploited in this game as their defensive strength is against the pass.   Fresno is also missing their #1 tackler (per game) Knox who was suspended for the finale.  Their star RB Rouse should be healthy for the game and they probably want him as their backup has been very bad from a compensated yards per carry perspective. 

Coach Hill also seems to only get up for bcs opponents as he is 36-63-2 ATS against non-BCS opponents and 0-4-1 against non-BCS opponents in the bowl games (I believe, might be 1-4).  While Fresno is listed as the underdog, I doubt they will be excited to play NIU in this game.  Ultimately, I would take NIU here if I had to make a play despite the fact the MAC has been very bad recently in the bowls.  IMO conference trends go in cycles and aren't consistent over time.

Math Model:  NIU -5.5, total 55.8

Math (PPG perspective): NIU -10.8

New Orleans Bowl:

Troy -2 vs Ohio (no lean):  Tough game to cap as it's not quite apparent how much or little Boo Jackson will play.  Not a ton of evidence to support this, but I think they may be better off without him.  Bates has been the far superior runner and if they are smart they will just keep it on the ground vs a weak Troy rush defense.  In my metrics Troy has allowed a horrible 5.78 yards per carry against a collection of offenses that would normally gain a putrid 4.89 yards per carry.  Their pass defense is a bit better, but Ohio does not pass all that much and I see no reason to in this game.  

From a math perspective, Ohio was slightly better from a line of scrimmage standpoint, -0.77 overall compared with -0.99 yards per play for Troy.  Ohio was worse defensively ever since star LB Noah Keller was injured early in the year.  I discounted most of the statistics from the 2 games he played as Ohio was playing much better defense with him leading the defense. 

Ohio also holds a somewhat significant edge on special teams, but that is negated by the play disparity Troy should hold over Ohio.  I have them running 9 more plays than Ohio in this game and holding a yardage edge of 435.7 to 404.9.   Troy has also been better from a success rate % standpoint as I have them successful on 52.2% of plays facing a schedule 5.75 pts worse than average.  Ohio was successful on 50.5% of plays with a schedule 9.36 pts worse than average (believe the easiest schedule in the nation).

From a yards per play persepective, I get Ohio -1.6 in this game, but the success rate favors Troy and I would think the line is about dead on. 

I get a total of 59.4 which is right about where it sits.

I forgot to mention what the spread looks like from a simple PPG vs SOS standpoint.

Ohio averaged 27.5 ppg, allowed 22.8 ppg against a SOS 9.364 pts worse than average = -4.66

Troy: 32.9 - 31.0 vs SOS -5.75 = -3.85

I get Troy -0.81 as my line going that route.

St. Petersburg Bowl

Louisville (up to -3) over Southern Miss (0.75 units on L'ville):  You can also get this line -2.5 at various outlets right now. 

The biggest mystery coming into this game is how much QB Adam Froman will play.  They were a far better offense with Froman at the helm (+0.63 yards per play on the YR). They were actually even better than this when both Froman & RB Powell played.  Burke will start, but Froman is expected to get quite a bit of playing time.  Assuming, Froman is healthy I'd expect him to get most of the time.  Burke is much more careless with the ball and not nearly as effective (-0.23 yards per play with Froman starting).  I decided to go with Louisville's overall offensive rating of +0.18, but I would expect Froman will see more time. Louisville's defense improved as the year went on (+1.22 yards per play over the last 6 games),+0.35 on the year. 

Southern Miss, on the other hand experienced the exact opposite trade-off.  Over the latter half of the year they were much better offensively and progrsesively got worse defensively after the injury to star LB Martez Smith (DNP last 7 weeks).  On the year, S. Miss was -0.21 yards per play worse than average offensively.  However, after highly touted Kendrick Hardy into the starting lineup against Memphis, the offense improved mightily.  Over the last 6 weeks, they were +0.6 yards per play with Hardy at RB.   Defensively, S. Miss was -0.31, but after LB Smith got INJ, they were -0.75 yards per play worse than average.  They were even worse than that after the injury to LB Deddrick Jones was lost for the year, but his numbers were not as overwhelming so that very well may have been a coincidence. 

While Louisville has a huge advantage from the line of scrimmage (I calculated them having a +1.40 yards per play edge), Southern Miss is likely to run more plays than L'ville (I have them running 9 more plays), and has a QB (Davis) that never turns it over.  If QB Froman plays most of the game (like he should), then L'ville is not at a big disadvantage here as he has only thrown interceptions at a 2.1% rate over his career (compraed to 4.1% of burke).  Louisville does hold an edge in special teams. 

From a success rate standpoint, both teams have been relatively even.  Louisville has been successful on 51.6% of plays against a schedule of teams 0.09 better than average.  Southern Miss: 53.2% vs teams 4.14 pts worse than average.

From a ppg standpoint, L'ville comes out to +7.19 and S. Miss comes out to +2.264 which would result in a line of L'ville -4.9.  That is however, not considering that L'ville figures to be a bit stronger (with Froman/Powell healthy).

While Louisville and S. Miss have been pretty similar from a success rate standpoint, I can't stray from the math in this case as I have Louisville as a prohibitive favorite.  Strong's defense was very impressive down the stretch and he has been known as a defensive mastermind as sorts.   I just hope that QB Burke does not get the majority of the snaps. 

Math Model:  Louisville -9.02, Total 56.3 (I'm now adding 2 pts to totals as that has been the average in bowl games over last few years). 

GL moo.

Ummm......that is some serious capping.

Good luck. Thanks for the post.