Navy +11, Navy ML +$320

Tomorrow We have to undefeated teams meeting in their conference opener. Navy has owned Memphis the last few years. Even a 3 win Navy team defeated Memphis last year. Memphis won a very close low scoring game vs a depleted very young Ole Miss squad 15/10. The Tigers other victories were over teams that really were no where close on talent level so I won't get all giddy about their offense. Their defense still have up 24 last time out. With Navy you know what is coming. The triple option is run by a veteran QB that keeps the chains moving and eats up the minutes. An improved defense is the key to Navy's success this year. Memphis has speed and talent plus boast their own strong running game. If there are no turnovers this game will be over as both teams will try to control the game with their strength, running the ball. So the question is can Memphis stop the triple option. That answer has been no the past four years. This year Navy has a defense but so does Memphis, a tough battle. Memphis has been very strong at home while Navy has been awful away. Memphis should win if it plays mistake free football. Think Air Force at Boise State. This game is pretty much a mirror of both teams. Memphis blew a 12 point lead in the fourth quarter on the road to Navy last year. This is an extremely rare feat for Navy to come roaring back to win so you know Memphis will want to put it on the Midshipman in front of the home crowd. That is the rub. Navy has improved and the once dominate branch of the Armed Forces has been passed by Army, not this year. Navy is back and Memphis with all their sound and fury will once again succumb to the ground and pound of the USS Triple Option. GL

Nice right up frank. I was on the fence with this 1 but after reading a little on Memphis then your post I’m leaning navy! I need this win so I can play Friday. BOL people ALOHA/KU KIA’I MAUNA 

I am not putting a normal bet on this game just like Monday night  Thursday nightand Sunday night NFL games as well as Thursday night or Friday night unless I say heavy like USC last week. Primetime games are 25% my normal as these are "forced" bets. I have $150 on the line and $100 on the ML. I would just take the line or pass on this game if you are up against it. Maryland spread and ML is a full play for me. I am looking at Alternative lines for Maryland minus points. Good luck. New England Revolution in MLS is bigger pay day tonight. Key is money management if you're winning don't up your bets unless you have cashed out 30% of a healthy bankroll and your bankroll has still grown 25% GL. Books make money on people not controlling their betting amounts. There will always be peaks and valleys. But if you are hitting ML you are well ahead of the game vs someone paying 10%

BOL Frank !!! 

You are right on in your observation and I am looking forward to you again wearing a path to the pay window this weekend, starting tomorrow night. 

Thanks guys, I like the Memphis team and at home they are tough also their coach knows what he is doing I am sure he will find himself in the ACC, SEC or Big12 soon. But Navy is an improved squad and neither team as really played anyone. Memphis getting an Ole Miss team that was in complete disarray during the off-season was a break for them but they could only manage a 5 point low scoring victory. If Navy takes care of the ball they will take care of the Tigers. It is pretty amazing that a triple option team should struggle so much away from home but that stat is really built into the spread along with Navy's poor defense last year.

Exactly! 

Wait! So were the hell do i go? I thought you guys was all on navy with the points! Now it’s Memphis? I’m going to follow you frank so I hope you get to read this and shoot me a clear side to go. I’ll take any help I can get this weekTHANKS

On Navy  Line and ML but I don't full bet the prime games unless I really love the side like choosen full slate games.  

I bought both tickets earlier . . . before I saw this thread.  I have Navy +11 large, and Navy ML small.  Let's hope we're on the right side of this one.

10-4 frank! I will plunge on navy and hope they control the clock! If the don’t make to many mistakes I think 11 is a gift. Thanks again BOL let’s get it

Great write up Frank.  Respect.

GW

Don't forget last years game was played in a heavy downpour which would favor Navy greatly.

I like Memphis to gain some revenge for that game which was a nightmare for them. They fumbled on the first play. Then again on the 3rd drive. 4 turnovers in total.

Navy only had 2 drives all game that went for more than 32 yards it wasnt like they ran all over Memphis all game they had one long drive each half. With a 12 point lead Memphis fumbled again giving Navy a short field they only had to go 27 yards to score.

It's hard to gauge teams when they havent played many good opponents yet and Navy has only played twice once vs Holy Cross and then East Carolina. Despite the Ole Miss game being close on the scoreboard Memphis actually outgained them by a huge margin of almost 200 yards.

With UCF and Temple losing I think Memphis, who played the Knights in the AAC title game last year is going to hope to make a serious run at the title game again and could even run the table, they play temple and houston on the road but can probably win those games and they don't play UCF this year, they get Cincinnati at home the last game of the season.

I'm sorry Frank I know you dont like people giving analysis of the other side in your threads but the reason I do it is simply because you're one of the few people who will do a writeup. And you've been doing quite well with these dog plays but I think the heavy rain last year is what screwed Memphis. It favors teams that run. There are meant to be a few scattered storms this afternoon but gametime is meant to be a balmy 76 degrees and partly sunny.

Id be shocked if Memphis loses this game, they no doubt have it circled and I actually think they could blow Navy out as their defense really didnt play bad last year the offense gave Navy the ball deep in their own territory.

The AAC is a very good league this year and UCF, Cinci and Memphis are the cream of the crop. yes triple option teams can sometimes keep scores close with their clock chewing but if they fall behind they usually cant come back cause they cant throw and if Memphis doesnt turn the ball over their offense could put Navy in a hole they cant climb out of.