NCAA FB Week 2

WEEK 2 CARD:

Eastern Michigan +21
Syracuse -20
UTSA + Texas State over 62
Tulane + Ole Miss over 61.5
Air Force -13.5 -120
UTEP ML

NCAA Week 1: Recap 18-12

FCS: 7-1

WAAAAY TOO MANY BAD PICKS.
- LA TECH
-SOUTH ALABALA
-IOWA TEAM TOTAL

GROSS...UVA...down what, 10 at half...gets blown out...hawaii...UGH...help me

lotta good...too much bad. going to trim down the plays substancially this week...

Thursday:

WIN Nebraska +7.5
WIN Utah -7 locked in earlier in the summer. cannot get out of it now.
WIN small fun play: UCONN +15 + Utah ML (+184 odds) half unit.
WIN FCS-PLAY Idaho + Lamar over 51 -116
WIN Youngstown state -30
WIN Rhode island + georgia state over 58.5


Friday:
LOSS Hawaii +10 -116 vs Stanford
LOSS Miami Ohio +18
WIN Friday FCS Play: Kansas + Missouri State over 55.5 -122 heritage...


Saturday:

LOSS Virginia +29
LOSS Louisiana Tech +14.5
LOSS Louisiana Tech +17 -120
WIN Sam Hou St +24
WIN California -9
WIN California -6.5
LOSS South Alabama +7.5
WIN Wyoming +14.5 -122
WIN Texas State + Baylor over 58.5
WIN Texas State + Baylor over 56.5
LOSS Colorado State +16.5
LOSS Colorado State +15.5
WIN Bowling Green +12.5
LOSS Northwestern +7 -121
WIN No. Illinois +11.5 -113
LOSS UTSA pk -104
LOSS UMASS +39
LOSS Iowa Team Total over 33.5

WIN  FCS UTM +51.5

WIN  FCS Tennessee state TT over 2

WIN  FCS New Mexico State -16.5

Ncaa football week 1 - Page 2 - College Football | Covers

Week 0 Record: 2-6

Week 1 Record: 18-12

Overall 20-18...middling start...going to scale back the amount of plays...

How bad is Northwestern that UTEP is a road fave vs P5 conference team. 

leans...not plays, but games I am considering:

Vandy +12

Marshall -3/ Under 46/ 1H Under

Ark St + Memphis over 58

Georgia Southern -6

?UNLV +37

App State +18.5

VT -3

Utah -5

Rice +10

North Texas -12

Texas Tech +7.5

NMSU+ Lib over 56

Please top 3 and Favorite pick from week 2

Good luck this week duck 

Nothing tonight Duck? 

WEEK 2 CARD:

Eastern Michigan +21
Syracuse -20
UTSA + Texas State over 62
Tulane + Ole Miss over 61.5
Air Force -13.5 -120
UTEP ML
App State +19 -113

Bol this week

underdog ML parlay birdcage teams

Wazzu

Connecticut

Texas Tech

Cal

Texas State

Texas Tech

Rice

7s, 6s, 5s 

Uconn, Cal, Texas Tech, Wazzu                             ML Parlay 85/1.   .1u risked

Umass, Texas State, Wazzu, Temple, Boise           ML Parlay  345/1    .05u risked

nothing officially tonight...clemson -13 just seems too easy...WOuld consider a play on Duke +14 or taking them in game live... but nothing official

Loving both overs

WEEK 2 CARD:

Eastern Michigan +21
Syracuse -20
UTSA + Texas State over 62
Tulane + Ole Miss over 61.5
Air Force -13.5 -120
UTEP ML
App State +19 -113

FAU -4.5

California +7

Love what I saw from cal. They are going to be a problem in the P12 this year. Run game was also excellent. Long trip for auburn. 

?

How In the world will Ohio keep up. No way they Trott rourke out there in this meaningless non conference bout. Big drop off from him to QB2. Only scored 27 against LIU post. Just a guess but I’m going to bet Their quarterback is not healthy and they know it. That’s why he only played two series against San Diego State and they did not playing last week. They’re nonconference Super Bowl is next week, then Mac play. Just a hunch, but I guess he won’t play. If he’s confirmed out, this line should be 7 1/2.

WEEK 2 CARD:

Eastern Michigan +21
Syracuse -20
UTSA + Texas State over 62
Tulane + Ole Miss over 61.5
Air Force -13.5 -120
UTEP ML
App State +19 -113
FAU -4.5
California +7

North Texas -11 -118   

@steponaduck

 Nice call on Cal...I could not pull the trigger...Spavital has them humming...Washington State and Tulane were the same types of picks...Public on the dog...from the inferior conference...

@kimoinsd808

 Yes i saw that and cracking up UTEP is -1.5 Fav

Eastern Michigan +21: Just love the eagles in this spot catching MN off a thrilling come from behind win that they had no business winning. 4 turnovers for NE, many in the scoring zone. what would this spread be if NE takes care of business and wins by 2-3 scores like they should have...-14 or so? Love the Eagles to muddy this game up and just lurk in the late stages, keeping the score close. I am concerned that they could not stop the run game against howard, but MN didnt gash all that much and their QB play was horrific until the last 5 minutes. EMU has made hay as big underdogs in the past and with MN in a Nebraska, UNC sandwich, this is a great spot to catch the eagles at their best, as a big dog. 34-21 

Syracuse: this is a big WMU fade. they are down this year any way (we have WMU under 4.5 RSW also) and now taking a big step up against Syracuse, after messing around and letting SFPA (a weak SFPA at that) hang around for a while. Think the cuse D will feast here and I would guess their big physical WR group finds alot of space. 41-10 Cuse

UTSA/Tex St...man the bobs played out of their mind. Baylor missed chances and putzed around all game and it cost them. If you remember back to my RSW/Futures Card that i posted back in the summer, we took the bobs to win the SBC at 80/1...now down to 10/1, not going to overreact over one game, but if they win this game at UTSA, max play the conference futures because they are going to really compete in league play and hopefully get that elusive first bowl appearance. I see Both teams having success, and hope UTSA comes out with piss and vineager in their veins after gift wrapping and bow tieing the houston game (2nd year in a row) costing the Duck big money on a huge swing game. Frank Harris looked rattled, but Hope the friendly alamo dome confines and a weaker pass rush can have him finding guys open downfield...back and forth game, 42-41 someone wins. 

tulane/ole miss: Tulane showed up and smashed south ala in the mouth, maybe the jags are not all they are cracked up to be, maybe the wave is really good again this year. maybe both. all I know is that they should get big chunk plays and so should ole miss. maybe tulane is a lil too jacked for this one early, wouldnt suprise me to see them down 21-0 early and battle back. Ill take over in this one. 44-38

Air force- ho hom dick around and take care of business win against Bobby Mo...could have been 84-0 but they took their 1st platoon out at half...now they travel to houston (nuetral site game) against the Kats...what a gutty performance they had against BYU. Defense came to play, and really brought it....are their defense that good, or is byu lost offensively? or both? Kats couldnt move it all game, missed out on their one chance in the RZ, and had a blocked FG returned for a TD called back that would have made it 7-7 in the 4th...as is the game was 7-0 deep in the 4th and the +24, +23, +22, +19 or whatever else you bet them at was never in question. now...off a huge physically exhausting performance where the offense did nothing, now they have to prepare for the AF triple in a spot where AF was able to coast....yeah I dont think this will end up well for SHSU and the books dont eather, given that they posted -17 on open (bet down quickly) and a total of 36.5...seems like they dont have confidence in the kats to score more than 7-10 points. I did buy a point on this game at heritage for reduced juice to get under 2 TDs here but I think AF triple option might be humming in this one, and SHSU might be a little lost after the max effort they gave last week. Flyboys- 27-7

UTEP ML...gut play. books saw what I saw from NW...no pass rush, defense a step slow, offense did nothing. 5 FD until the last 5 minutes of garbage time. fake punt didnt work. reverse pass didnt work, run game was woeful...pass game was equally bad. now they have to face big, physical UTEP who cruised against vaunted UIW (and covered) and we are a few bad (like, inexcusably bad) coaching playcalls away from UTEP being 2-0 and crusing to a RSW o5.5 (which we are holding)...books know what they saw, Ill side with them in this one and back the miners to make history and beat a B10 team for the first time in how long?? 16-10, Miners

APP state- maybe a bit of line overreaction due to NC blitzing past sou carolina who could not establish the run, but that UNC D is still bad and this is appy state. the book on them is that their starting QB went out, but the back up played better anyway and they run the ball with 22 personnel 66% of the time anyway. I think this line is too big. App should compete in this game like they did last year. maybe slow the pace, control possessions, and lean into that run game to get the cover. 35-20

FAU- How in the world is Ohio going to trot Rourke out there in a meaningless Non-Con spot before they host iowa state. if he was ready to go, he wouldnt have left the opener after 2 drives, and sat out against LIU-Post. I could be wrong, and this is a guess, but I cannot imagine they roll him out at FAU on the road even if he is marginally doing better, as they have revenge embarrassment game hosting Iowa state and then MAC play, I cannot see him playing and their is a huge drop off in talent difference as we have all seen. i mean they only scored 27 against LIU...not going to be good here, and once he is confirmed out this line will balloon to -7.5 or higher. Im getting in now. if he plays, he plays but I cannot see it. 31-12, Owls

California- man they looked great in the opener. back and forth for a while but their offense is going to be a problem for numerous P12 teams...great QB play by both 1st and 2nd string QBs, starter was banged up Ill have to check the status, but I am locking in on some +7 that is a LONG roady for Auburn fresh off a UMASS waxing...big step up here. should be points galore, and I give cal a punchers chance at the end. 

UNT- faded them last week, but totally different animal this week. FIU we all saw them and their 4 pass yards against La Tech, well this week they had 6 rush yards against the stingy black bear Maine Defensive front 7, and won 14-12 never threatening to cover -13,14,15. Maine had 5 drives inside the FIU 40 yard line that resulted in 0 points. 3 SOD 4th down fails (one at the 6 yard line), a missed FG, a fumble on the 24 and End of the 1st half, they were throwing into the endzone. maine had more yards, more total yards, dominated the TOP, FIU had 3 turnovers. just dont see a team ready to compete as FIU hasnt improved...physiologically they get the monkey off their back by getting a win, but i think they get blitzed this week. 38-13 Mean Joe Greenes

and wyoming. and colorado, and texas state, and sam houston, and bowling green, and NIU...it goes both ways my guy. Plenty of dogs woofin' this weekend from inferior conferences. and I learned alot about CSU, and South alabama in those losses, and more about Wazzu (actually my favorite college FB team, the team I am a "fan" of) and tulane...hindsight being 20/20, I should have hedged back on wazzu when it went to -8...

what you CAN say, effectively is that reverse line movement, and closing line value has a diminished impact in week 0/1/2...did not matter on any of my plays. 

NIU +11.5 down to +7.5

CSU +16 down to +8

Wyoming +14.5 down to +11.5

SHSU +24 down to +19

South alabama +8.5 down to +6 did not matter

La Tech +14.5 all the way to +21.5 did not matter. 

leans...updated...not plays, but games I am considering:

Vandy +12

Marshall -3/ Under 46/ 1H Under

Ark St + Memphis over 58

Georgia Southern -6

VT -3

Utah -5

Rice +10

Texas Tech +7.5

NMSU+ Lib over 56

Vegas/Michigan over 56

WEEK 2 CARD:

Eastern Michigan +21
Syracuse -20
UTSA + Texas State over 62
Tulane + Ole Miss over 61.5
Air Force -13.5 -120
UTEP ML
App State +19 -113
FAU -4.5
California +7
North Texas -11 -118

Virginia +7.5 -112

Arkansas State + Memphis over 58.5 -104

how in the world can you bet on UVA...didnt you just see them get thrashed by Tennessee...man they suck...JMU is gonna smoke them...

maybe so...BUT...

JMU seems to have struggled more than they should have with Bucknell...a bad patriot league team who was projected a bottom feeder in a bad FCS conference. how in the world was it 17-3 at half, and 24-3 after 3 quarters? In prior years JMU would have hung 70 on this team. leads me to believe in this big brother/little brother matchup something tells me UVA plays inspired football in their home opener after the tragedy, could be wrong. but I dove into the JMU box and was not impressed. last year playing an ACC foe JMU was embarrassed. this seems like a weaker team, and an overreaction for how UVA played on national TV against tennessee. 

arkansas state- memphis. Oklahoma was kind in that game, could have been 100 to 0...how will ark state get off the mat in this regional rivalry in jonesboro? something tells me the red wolves play inspired football, and if they get blown out, this could still get over the total. this series in recent history has provided some high scoring affairs, and this matchup should be no different. I see points a plenty and a closer game than the line indicates. 42-30

Good insight on above games.Thanks for the info.

Futures Portfolio Update 

From way back in the summer when posted  

RSW:

* western Michigan under 4.5 -200

   1-0  closer than expected win against FCS

*Central Michigan under 5.5 -120

   0-1  battled for a half with sparty  FCS foe next 

*North Texas under 6.5 -120.

   0-1 crappy FIU on the docket next 

*East Carolina under 5.5 -150

*East Carolina under 6.5 -190. BIG

   0-1 home game with Marshall up next  

*South Alabama under 8-130.

   0-1 with FCS foe coming to town 

*MTSU under 6.5 +100 

   0-1 as expected  at Missouri next 0-2 loading 

*San Jose St under 5.5 +120 

   0-2 cal poly on deck  

*Minnesota under 7.5 -160

   1-0  emu on deck  should be 0-1

*UTEP over 5.5 -115 BIG

   1-1  fave over B10 smart guys this week 

*Indiana under 3.5 +140

   0-1  FCS foe on deck 

*Vanderbilt over 3.5 -150 

   2-0 can they compete with sale I think so 

*Cal over 4.5 -152

   1-0 good road win home vs auburn would go a long way here 

*BYU under 5.5 +113

   1-0, FCs bottom feeder on deck  not worried here 

1u UTEP 22-1 to win CUSA. Still feel okay about this 

1u UTSA +360 to win AAC  qB play must be better 

1u FAU +950 to win AAC no sentiments either way yet 

1u EMU +790 to win MAC  no sentiments here 

1u San Diego state +650 to win MWC  they look like they play b+ defense, D+ offense  

1.75u Washington +400 win P12  lights out offense  gonna be tough out in the P12

longshots to win their respective conference title

.33u navy 45/1  likely donation unless they can score points 

.125u cal 80/1  they are going to be a problem for a lot of foes 

.416u NIU 22/1 + .33u 29/1 (local casino) great team win against BC  hope they run through the wacky mac 

.125u Texas State 80/1  looks good now  down to 10/1 

I fully expect to go 10-3 or better in the RSW plays. I have achieved 70%+ 10 years in a row on these plays. Feel good about all of them but would have loved a MN loss to huskers.