NCAA FB Week 3 14-17 YTD

Lets get the party started Mr. Duck.

Rollllll Duck

@steponaduck

 If you watch that TCU first 15 minutes, Colorado didn’t look good. TCU just was making typical week 1 mistakes. 

@PeAceMaKer7690

 from my perspective I saw:

Colorado Drive #1: colorado drive right down the field only to be stopped on 4th and 1 at inside the 15...missed scoring chance. 

TCU three and out

colorado drive #2: 9 plays 43 yards got down to the 12 yard line...Settled for a Field Goal

TCF 5 plays, Punt

Colorado Drive #3: colorado punt, TCF returns punt for a TD

Colorado drive #4: 12 plays 50 yards gets inside the red zone, another FG, 7-6 

TCU Punt on next drive

COlorado drive #5: 8 plays 50 yards (started at the 1, ended at TCU 45, end of half)

nothing about this 1st half was fluky, and TCU was actually outplayed by colorado in the first half. it was only after TCU blew them out in the 2nd half that the score got out of hand...and even so, it was 38-13 which would be good enough to cover this large over inflated number. 

@steponaduck

Any read on Montana State duck? .. Beavs couple big games this one home game but in Portland .. tricky spot here w USC on deck .. Bobs w Tommy Mellot back they got a big game next too but man I'd take 2 TD's here if it shows up .. 

guys...dont get me wrong. I am not a fan of colorado. I bet their RSW total under 3.5 and have already spent the money. i just think in this position this is the weakest team they have faced up to this point and this is the largest number of spread position that they have. 

what has MN done up to this point this season? beat New Mexico State 38-0 and blew out a bad missouri valley FCS team that plays absolutely no defense? this colorado team may very well get blown out here too, but as far as spread play there is no better value than Colorado given that the pre season line was what? 17? or 14!

@Bridge1

 agree...thought i saw +18 actually and beavs do have a history of underperforming vs FCS top tier programs. i would snag the bobs (Montana Bobs) in this spot...very solid team

308941 Montana State @ 308942 Oregon State
09/17/22 05:00:00PM Pacific
Pacific Time Montana State Oregon State
09/13/22 05:10:02AM +13½-110 -13½-110
09/12/22 06:33:09PM +14½-110 -14½-110
09/12/22 03:45:49PM +16½-110 -16½-110
09/12/22 10:45:27AM +20½-110 -20½-110
Totals
09/13/22 03:05:01PM 52½
09/13/22 05:10:02AM 53
09/12/22 10:45:27AM 54½

from maddux...was +20.5 at one point

@steponaduck

 They could be bored or not willing to tip their hand....look who they played?

ESPN SP+ had their offence rated 21st in rankings ....surely they can play well on that end of the ball? Indy's defense is no humdinger....its adequate to good

@Last2thirst

 i would not take any gambling related advice from ESPN...they are not qualified to discuss it. 

I just simply do not believe WKY is as good as last years squad...i just dont see it. 

@steponaduck

 Agree on WK.  They struggled vs. AP and were only up 21-10 on Hawaii at half, scoring no points in the 1Q.  They are not the same offense and team this year, I think by a long shot.  Indiana beat what looks like a darn good team in Illinois. 2u play for me at -6, largest play of the weekend.  GL

Week 3: UPDATED CARD

FRIDAY  AF + Wyo over 46 

Indiana -6.5 + Indiana -6   2u total

Sou. Carolina +25 -111

Vanderbilt ML +116

Georgia Tech +16.5

Bowling Green +18

Charlotte vs Ga State over 60

Fresno + USC over 72

Washington -2

So. Florida +25.5

Colorado +28.5

New Mexico +3.5

Nebraska +12 -117

BYU +3.5

@steponaduck

 That interesting, one of the best informed cappers on the ncaaf covers forums uses ESPN stats

They seem to be working for me so far....gonna stick with them for now but thanks for the heads up

@Last2thirst

 I am sorry...espn stats yes...i misread and thought you were suggesting following and putting stock in ESPN gambling content. 

Also, one more thing .....they are a source of information (data) and on their own, they cannot be accepted completely and I wholeheartedly know this just like other sources. Its what you do with the data in an analytical way and try some things , apply metrics, whatever....which is what I am into until the metrics no longer work as stated in my own thread. You have to flexible and open to trying new things, accepting new ideas.

I bet far more money in horses in one night /week than most and same things apply..... and not one method works...its kind of a cocktail of a lot of things and situationally, and I have managed to figure out a way to interpret a horse program in a way that is lucrative, but does not work every night

I would love to see some football cappers try horse racing haha....it would be very eye opening, takes years to become proficient

Good luck sir! Ranked teams are getting slaughtered this year. 

@steponaduck

 Ya, all good bro...just using their stats and rankings as one source. I change my sources....been using Phil Steele for 5-7 yrs now and I want to try some other mathematical angles and then use my results to find other games that I normally would not and also, try some new betting approaches.

The end result, I make money most years and same with horses, but no method works. My horse thread is still open and it has documented tickets in there through late 2020 and into 2021 ...and now ....from 2020 spring to end of summer, I was up/profit $28 000 hitting Pick5's regularly and superfectas and then work got insanely busy for the last 18 months or so and I stopped.... for a while because I could not put in the time.

Happily retired now and lots of time for both and the stock market

@Last2thirst

 yep! my ass has been handed to me over the last 18 months...schwab account is sad...lol, but continue to add to my 25-30 holdings, a mix of high growth large cap, ETF's, some smaller tech and chip stocks, etc. its been okay, but not nearly as good as the 225% Run we saw for 4 years before the covid...

if people continue to invest and plug away, the next bull market will make people a TON of money.

Good luck this week!

@steponaduck

 Agree bro, I am better for 2 downturns and losses in gambling once every 5-10 yrs

The truth, gambling saved my financial life in the late 90's and I saw it as s gift and chance to leave it behind me. Now, its fun and casual, I have a paid retirement, stocks, and partial income on top of the hard earned retirement payments every month

I learn from everyone despite my almost 60 yrs of age, and thats because having all the answers means, you don't gain any power, just spread your power.....the joy is in the gaining of power/experience and integrity situations that test you

Cheers and I suspect you will have the week that we will all be doing this ...... ......like you, anything I can do to help is where the power and enjoyment is, not about being right because that is fleeting since no one in the history of NCAAF has been greater than 65% year after year

I had a bad week 1 but will get things going.  Good luck this week Duck 

Gene Hackman big 

love that one bro, let’s roll it up Saturday 

@steponaduck

 G L Duck

Thank you all for the kind words. Very much appreciated 

Week 3: UPDATED CARD

FRIDAY  AF + Wyo over 46 

Indiana -6.5 + Indiana -6   2u total

Sou. Carolina +25 -111

Vanderbilt ML +116

Georgia Tech +16.5

Bowling Green +18

Charlotte vs Ga State over 60

Fresno + USC over 72

Washington -2

So. Florida +25.5

Colorado +28.5

New Mexico +3.5

Nebraska +12 -117

BYU +3.5

Troy +12.5

Sorry guys. One more