NCAA FB WEEK 4 17-5 LW 42-30 YTD

@TBLbolts

 Yeah that is what I meant. Their blow out loss doesn’t looks so bad now 

I echo what TBL said (the praise). Step can you identify 3-5 of your picks that you really like? Unfortunately would like to bet most but can't. Thanks 

Interesting you mention NU/Duke being a rivalry, because it is.  My nephew played at Duke, and they freaking hated Northwestern (and Army).  Something to remember for the future, perhaps.  Love the thread, by the way. 

WEEK 4 CARD UPDATED

**Rice -2
**Nebraska -19.5
UConn +22.5
Virginia Tech +8
CMU +17 -120
Rutgers +25.5
**Colorado State -1.5 +127
California +22.5
**Wyoming -2
Wyoming -6 +153 .75u
Sam Houston State +14 -117
Georgia Southern + Ball State over 58.5

sometimes the lines can move quickly on Sunday/Monday but I have indicated what I would feel really strongly about still playing. 

WEEK 4 CARD UPDATED

Rice -2
Nebraska -19.5
UConn +22.5
Virginia Tech +8
CMU +17 -120
Rutgers +25.5
Colorado State -1.5 +127
California +22.5
Wyoming -2
Wyoming -6 +153 .75u
Sam Houston State +14 -117
Georgia Southern + Ball State over 58.5

Memphis +7

Good Luck with your plays Duck - Great stuff as always 

@Badger66

 thanks big buddy!! GOOOOOO BIIIIIG REEEEEEDDDD...GO BIG RED! 

You got a good number with VT. I'm still considering them at +5.5/6. Except for a couple turnovers, they really didn't look bad at Rutgers. They SHOULD have more success on offense against Marshall. GL this week. 

@steponaduck

 Good luck Duck! Loving reading your post 

Good luck duck,stay hot 

@totter  good luck brother.

@insatiable  good luck this week thanks for the kind words. 

@DrStrangelove  same brother. good luck to you

I would play air force on friday night. San Jose State is gassed, guys...just getting back from a LONG road trip to Toledo, Ohio, and now a short week to try to prepare for the triple option. these conference foes havent faced off since 2020 so at this point seeing the option keys on D and playing assignment football will not be familiar for the Spartans. 1-3 Jose has not looked great this season, getting blown out against USC (backdoor cover) and crushed at home against Oregon State, and then ran out of gas last week after being up 17-7 and then punt, punt, INT, punt, downs, punt. weak effort. Now they have a WR and TE out, and AF can key in on Nash. Here is an interesting fact, with all of the mountain west football Chevon Cordeiero has played in his career, he has NEVER played against AF...

You do have a point,  but AIR has little success when their opponents have less than the normal 6 days rest.  

the sample size is very small.  

I too San Jose I feel like they are under the radar and going to pop up and out.

Add this to your FCS list:

Dartmouth head football coach just passed away as the result of a bicycle accident in march. They are at home. Against overMatched Lehigh. I will be betting Dartmouth whatever the line. Huge emotional time for them.  Win one for the coach. 

RIP coach.  GO BIG GREEN

Updated Week 4 Card:

Thursday: Georgia State + Coastal Carolina over 61.5 .66u

Friday: Air Force -3.5

Saturday:
Rice -2
Nebraska -19.5
UConn +22.5
Virginia Tech +8
CMU +17 -120
Rutgers +25.5
Colorado State -1.5 +127
California +22.5
Wyoming -2
Wyoming -6 +153 .75u
Sam Houston State +14 -117
Georgia Southern + Ball State over 58.5
Memphis +7
New Mexico +4.5 -120


Further Considerations:
Purdue +7
Utah -4.5
Kansas State -6
Buffalo +9.5
FIU +10
UTEP ML +120
FCS: Gardner-Webb +24??
FCS: Idaho St + Northern CO over
FCS: Montana State
FCS: Furman
FCS: Dartmouth

RSW- Season starting to take form here now that teams have played 3-4 games. 

* western Michigan under 4.5 -200   1-2

*Central Michigan under 5.5 -120   1-2

*North Texas under 6.5 -120.   1-2

*East Carolina under 5.5 -150   0-3

*East Carolina under 6.5 -190. BIG   0-3

*South Alabama under 8-130.   2-1

*MTSU under 6.5 +100   1-2

*San Jose St under 5.5 +120   1-3

*Minnesota under 7.5 -160   2-1

*UTEP over 5.5 -115 BIG   1-3

*Indiana under 3.5 +140   1-2

*Vanderbilt over 3.5 -150   2-2

*Cal over 4.5 -152   2-1

*BYU under 5.5 +113   3-0

Ncaa regular season wins card inside (6-3 ly 71% l10 years rsw) - Page 3 - College Football | Covers

games i will be keeping tabs on purely from a RSW perspective:

BYU/Kansas 

Vandy/KY

UTEP/UNLV

Jose/AF

Minn/NW

CMU/South Ala

WMU/Toledo

MTSU/CSU

Indiana/Akron

Some light analysis

Thursday: Georgia State + Coastal Carolina over 61.5 .66u

really like what i have seen this season from georgia state. they seem to be able to run the ball effectively and have some weapons on the outside. they have been high variance in the past but this season solid as they come...crushing both charlotte and UCONN. Their D allows a ton of yards, so if CCU can finish drives with points, I can trust Georgia state to do their part and get this game over the total. this could be a fun one...I see BOTH teams in the 30's here. 

Friday: Air Force -3.5

Air force is just plain ole the better team, and I loved finally seeing som explosiveness from their offense, which was lacking in their walk through against RMU and week 2 against that IronClad SHSU defense. explosive plays, energy, chunk plays, cashing in in the RZ...all of it was good. I said it earlier but I think san jose state is just gassed. 1-3, tough MWC games with air force, and boise next. short week, long road trip, hard to prep for the triple option, which they havent seen since 2020. just a bad spot for jose, even with being at home. falcons get it done on the ground here.

Saturday:
Rice -2

man. I love rice in this spot. cruising offensively, and with USF off a tough, physical and emotional game against alabama as +35 they almost did it...max effort there, and now have to get up for the owls? just a hard turn around for a rice team that will throw it around on USF similar to how WKU did that in the opener. I think USF will have more success on offense this go around, and the game could be back and fourth for a while, but I think rice gets the win by controlling the LOS in the 4th quarter. 38-24

Nebraska -19.5

Alright, I have seen what I needed to see from NEB with the change in QB, and from LT and their woeful offense who looks lost, and might have lost hank bachmeier for some time...LT is lost and dont see them having much success against nebraska's D who has played pretty well considering the circumstances (10 offensive turnovers have left them in some bad spots) I think this could be another get-right game for nebraska, I see them putting up 40 or so...doubt very seriously LT will surpase 20, unless troy edwards comes back and has 408 yards receiving like he did against nebraska in the 90's. 

41-14 huskers

more analysis to follow...

UConn +22.5

ultimate buy low spot on UCONN. they were +14.5 against NCST, now +22.5 against Duke, at home. Ive said it already but this is a sneaky good spot to back the huskies in this Duke -NW/ND sandwich spot. NW is a big game for duke. they dont like eachother, and it goes without saying, ND will be a monster game. I can see duke controlling the game and winning by 10-14, but the spread in this contest seems a touch high for duke on the road in such a sandwich spot. I could see the offense becoming very slow paced and vanilla in the 2nd half.

Virginia Tech +8

this line is no longer available, but that seemed to be too many points in this regional matchup. VT has been bad on offense this season, but so has marshall, and VT D has played pretty well actually, this game seems like an under game, and I dont see either team winning by more than 7 in this 17-13 pillow fight. 

CMU +17 -120

chips actually competed fairly well against notre dame. never threatened NOT covering, and catching the Jags in a great spot after their huge win over regional big boy oklahoma state, and before conference roady at ULM. I like the jags to win, as they are clearly the better team, but i would not be suprised if CMU comes out swinging in the 1st half, pissed about how last years game went. last year CMU was -6, so while these teams are going in opposite directions, the line is way out of whack here. when the line was 16.5 i was able to buy half a point to 17...but even now at 15-16 i would still play it. the jags dominated last years game and still only won by 14...so I see value in the chips playing with revenge and given the spot for South Alabama. 

Rutgers +25.5

was quite suprised to see SUNJ open at +30, and it was quickly bet down. michigan has taken care of business, but at 0-3 ATS I dont think they are capable of blowing these weaker teams out. their offense just isnt that good. devensively they are elite, against weaker competition that never threatened, but I think the scarlett knights can punch these guys in the mouth a time or two and make this game interesting for a half...not calling for an outright win by any stretch, but I will not be shocked if this game is 21-10 deep into the 4th quarter before michigan forces a turnover and gets a tack on score. I dont see this score approaching a 4 score spread. 

Colorado State -1.5 +127

Love what I Saw from colorado state on the OFFENSIVE LINE in this game. they gave their QB time, and man they have some dudes in the skill group. MTSU i doubt will cause any havoc in this matchup, and in the 2nd half CSU should take over. dont think for one minute that jay norvell is going to have his team in a let down spot. CSU got they azz whooped by MTSU last year, frankly the raiders embarrassed the rams...I know CSU has this one circled in red ink, after circling the buffalos game in pencil last week due to all the deion hype. Rams will test the raiders defense in this one, but should pass all over them. I took the alternate line as I think the rams are going to win the game on the field. right now you can get +3 if you want.

California +22.5

Line is no longer available in this case, as it is down to -20.5. i said it early in the season, cal is going to be a problem for many teams, and I love their offensive punch. really hope OTT is back this week at RB.  if cal can play keep away a bit and be more efficient in the redzone, they should have no issue competing in this game and keeping it within the number. last year cal gave UW fits...should have and could have won the game.  both teams are improved. close game predicted. 38-26

ill get to these games later! 
Wyoming -2
Wyoming -6 +153 .75u
Sam Houston State +14 -117
Georgia Southern + Ball State over 58.5
Memphis +7
New Mexico +4.5 -120

@steponaduck

 You’re the man 

GL this week really like all the write ups!

Appreciate the time and effort. 

Only one I’m playing opposite on is Georgia State Over.

I’m on the Under Large