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NCAA Football - Week 8

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Posted: #1
50-29  YTD  (63%)

7 straight winning weeks to start out the season.  My bookie hates this time of year.  Let's keep it rolling...

Here's what I've got early on, just a few plays:

Appalachian State  -6  (over probably a good play too)

UCLA  -3  (would take up to -7)

Alabama  -15.5

Miami (FL)  +7
_____________________________________________

Have a few other leans, but still evaluating a couple factors on each that I consider important.

Also looking at, and being patient with USC, Texas, Tulsa, Arkansas and Georgia Tech....thinking those numbers will move in my favor.

Also a couple big favorites I'm considering laying the number on.

Lines are as tight as ever this week.  Jumping on them early when you see the edge, and patiently waiting for a number you feel will move your way pays off this time of year.

Let's get it again...make it 8 straight in the money and roll into next week...







 
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Posted: #2
 
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Posted: #3
schboy23  



Have a play I really like in tonight's game....and plan on having a few more totals this week than I typically do.  There are some tasty ones out there this weekend.  Here we are:

UL-Lafayette / Arkansas St.  Over 57.5



Good luck to all.

 
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Posted: #4

BOL 

Looking forward to your picks this week.  You have been killing it, keeps up the great work.


 
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Posted: #5
Area51-  thanks buddy.  I have a few more to post later on when I get some more time.  



Hit the over last night for a head start on a winning week.  Let's get after it this weekend.

 
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Posted: #6
Added a few more plays for the time being:

East Carolina  -2.5

Texas  -4.5

Illinois +7

Louisville  -7 (hook)

Georgia Tech  +6.5

___________________________________________

Still waiting to see if I get 3 with USC.  I love them in this matchup, but I'll take the half point if I can get it.  Something tells me the number will inflate to 4+, but at that point I'm still in on USC.  Also, going to lay off Arkansas and Tulsa this week.  Now looking at Ole Miss, and Oklahoma.  I think Ole Miss matches up will with the A&M offensive scheme, and OU's defense should follow up a strong outing with another one back in Norman.  If I can get 14 flat, I'm on board.


Good luck this week.  Recap coming soon...



 
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Posted: #7
Here's what I've got going this week (so far), starting with the Thursday night games:

Appalachian State  -6

East Carolina  -2.5

UCLA  -3

Miami (FL)  +7

Alabama  -15.5

Texas  -4.5

Illinois  +7

Louisville  -7

Georgia Tech  +6.5



 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by IndyHoosier:

Added a few more plays for the time being:East Carolina  -2.5Texas  -4.5Illinois +7Louisville  -7 (hook)Georgia Tech  +6.5___________________________________________Still waiting to see if I get 3 with USC.  I love them in this matchup, but I'll take the half point if I can get it.  Something tells me the number will inflate to 4+, but at that point I'm still in on USC.  Also, going to lay off Arkansas and Tulsa this week.  Now looking at Ole Miss, and Oklahoma.  I think Ole Miss matches up will with the A&M offensive scheme, and OU's defense should follow up a strong outing with another one back in Norman.  If I can get 14 flat, I'm on board.Good luck this week.  Recap coming soon...

Still going with gtech? I just can't do it anymore. Last week I faded them, finally, and won. Gtech, ball St, and balt ravens... I refuse to back any of them anymore, but gl with your pick.
 
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Posted: #9
Indy - why do you like Miami?   sure, they will up for Clemson, and yes, Clemson loses a game or two that they should win, but why do you think Miami will cover or win this game?
LonghornHoosier
 
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Posted: #10
I like Illinois, but I'm thinking that you could do better on the +7 closer to game time.    GL!
 
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Posted: #11
Nice work so far!

 
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Posted: #12
On Miami & East Carolina as well. Good stuff & good luck.
 
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Posted: #13
Igglez-

I really like Tech's triple option scheme against the FSU defense which comes off as one of the weakest they've had in a long time. Despite what you see on paper, I think the FSU offense has been way too spotty and unreliable to continue at the pace they have been.  I think they find difficulties on the road this week, and others apparently agree considering they're sub-TD dogs riding a 5-game losing streak.  I also agree with you, however-  it seems risky on the surface to back them yet again.

Good luck this week!
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:

Indy - why do you like Miami?   sure, they will up for Clemson, and yes, Clemson loses a game or two that they should win, but why do you think Miami will cover or win this game?

The Miami play is based on the spot and matchup.  My handicapping method revolves around a point spread value determined by a few factors pitted against what I see and know.  Primarily how the teams matchup against each other in all facets, and a couple situation angles.  Still, I let my eyes do the reading and talking.  If everything aligns, more times than not, it's a play.  Translating to this game, I feel Miami is very talented and greatly overlooked at this point in the season, and Clemson is quite overrated.  They've been blessed with a favorable home/away schedule and are becoming one of the media darlings alongside Utah.  I think Kaaya is extremely efficient and the Miami defense rises up big time for this noon matchup.  Clemson isn't as good as advertised and it's going to start showing down the stretch.  The fact that Clemson's perception is at a recent peak and we're only catching a TD with the dog tells me they are prone to falling flat.

I know it's not too deep of an analysis, but that's my generic take on the game.

Good luck LH!

 
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Quote Originally Posted by BWS77:

I like Illinois, but I'm thinking that you could do better on the +7 closer to game time.    GL!

I disagree a little with that, but I appreciate the input.  Everyone seems to be down on Wisconsin (as they should be.)  I can see this number dropping a little, or maintaining steady at worst by kickoff.  This is one of my favorite plays of the weekend.  Wouldn't be shocked to see Wisconsin struggle heavily to score and Illinois spread things out enough to pull out the win.

Thanks buddy...good luck on the play if you back the Illini.



 
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Posted: #16
gman & Curtis-

Thanks guys.  Good luck to you as well this weekend!

 
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Posted: #17
Stay Hot Indy! Curious, you live in Indiana? I just moved from Terre Haute, down to Columbia, SC. Miss seeing my Hoosiers play (no matter how bad disappointing they are year after year, lol)
 
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Congrats on a tremendous season so far. Awesome.
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by IndyHoosier:


The Miami play is based on the spot and matchup.  My handicapping method revolves around a point spread value determined by a few factors pitted against what I see and know.  Primarily how the teams matchup against each other in all facets, and a couple situation angles.  Still, I let my eyes do the reading and talking.  If everything aligns, more times than not, it's a play.  Translating to this game, I feel Miami is very talented and greatly overlooked at this point in the season, and Clemson is quite overrated.  They've been blessed with a favorable home/away schedule and are becoming one of the media darlings alongside Utah.  I think Kaaya is extremely efficient and the Miami defense rises up big time for this noon matchup.  Clemson isn't as good as advertised and it's going to start showing down the stretch.  The fact that Clemson's perception is at a recent peak and we're only catching a TD with the dog tells me they are prone to falling flat.

I know it's not too deep of an analysis, but that's my generic take on the game.

Good luck LH!

Spot on...Good luck
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by Hoosiers1:

Stay Hot Indy! Curious, you live in Indiana? I just moved from Terre Haute, down to Columbia, SC. Miss seeing my Hoosiers play (no matter how bad disappointing they are year after year, lol)

Thanks man.  Yes, grew up there and also an IU alum.

Good luck this weekend.



 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by IndyHoosier:


I disagree a little with that, but I appreciate the input.  Everyone seems to be down on Wisconsin (as they should be.)  I can see this number dropping a little, or maintaining steady at worst by kickoff.  This is one of my favorite plays of the weekend.  Wouldn't be shocked to see Wisconsin struggle heavily to score and Illinois spread things out enough to pull out the win.

Thanks buddy...good luck on the play if you back the Illini.




It's actually at +6 now, so you may have gotten the best number.  

Still hard to believe that the Badgers are the 3rd to last rushing offense in the conference.   

 
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fts & Strangelove  


Still watching the USC and Ole Miss numbers.  

A little more conflicted on Oklahoma than I was earlier in the week.  I really think their defense is playing with a lot more focus and intensity...almost angry and I expect it to continue.  If their offensive line steps it up a little more than they have been, Perine could explode against that Tech defense...I mean really gash them for a hell of a lot of yardage because TTU's weak secondary is going to have to respect OU's wideouts.  I honestly feel that will happen, it just all comes back to that Sooner D.  The line has started to move where I want it, but not sure I'm ready to pull the trigger.

Good luck to everyone on the Thursday night matchups.  Another weekend of football is here.

 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by BWS77:


It's actually at +6 now, so you may have gotten the best number.  

Still hard to believe that the Badgers are the 3rd to last rushing offense in the conference.   


Consistently getting the best number is half the battle.  That challenge is one of my favorite parts of the capping side.  Yet another way you have to beat the book.

Amazing how simply getting the best number between opening and close 55% of the time or better can be the difference in padding your wallet.

Good luck.  
 
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Posted: #24
3-1 so far heading into the weekend...

Obviously a couple on the back burner that I've been following throughout the week.  Should have the plays in place and posted by tomorrow morning early at the latest.




 
 
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Posted: #25
GT defense is horrendous.  

Also Miami lost their top tackler for the year last week.  Can't be good for a team that already struggles on defense, especially getting to the QB.  
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