NCAA Football Week 1 Early Leans

Cant argue with any of them, but I get worried about 90% fav cards (although week 1 is the time to do it)

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Well some of the lines have changed since I last posted.  I wanted to update this feed with all the games I have took and the spreads I got for accountability.  I will go into detail of how I came up with the teams I have taken.  My explanations for each game will be short and sweet.  When I look at the games I try to use common sense as criteria.  I put a weight on the advantages and disadvantages of every team.  If I can’t find enough advantages to warrant a wager I move on to another game.  During the 3 to 4 weeks in the beginning of the college football season I have come to the conclusion that favorites from the major conferences have a big advantage over teams from smaller conferences.  Talent wise there is obviously a huge advantage when it comes to teams from bigger conferences.  From my perspective I believe a lot of these teams from smaller conferences have many insecurities and it takes them longer to build the confidence to put up a fight against some of these elite teams.  I look for teams from these smaller conferences who are going through a lot of changes either their coaching staff and players and take the favorites from elite conferences who have experienced players and coaches on their roster and who have proven in previous seasons they can beat large spreads against weaker opponents.  This doesn’t work all season as obviously teams improve and there are fewer opportunities like this to arrive.  Here are my games I am taking during week one that have been locked in for a while now that I believe fit this criteria.

Fresno State @ USC -21 -120 to win 0.5 units

 Major disadvantages for Fresno State:  Needs to replace QB David Carr (5000 career passing yards and 150 TDs).  Three of their wide receivers who combined for 33 td catches last year are now gone.

 Advantages for USC:  Their starting QB is returning and the new HC Steve Sarkisisan plans on using a hurry up no huddle offense.  Sarkisisan was 22-3 in the past as an offensive coordinator for the Trojans.  LY the team was top 25 in 8 defensive categories and was number 1 in red zone defense.  The team won 6 of the 7 of their last games of the season last year including a 45-20 defeat of a Fresno State in their bowl game.

Mississippi -10 -110 to win 0.5 units vs Boise State

Advantages for Mississippi :  Senior QB Bo Wallace is returning plus his fav WR target Laquon Treadmill.  Is a very competitive SEC team who upset LSU last year returning 60 lettermen.  Under the helm of HC Hugh freeze the team is 16-8 ATS.  The game is supposed to be played in a neutral site (Georgia Dome) obviously more of a home game for Ole Miss.

Disadvantages for Boise State.  Senior QB had 22tds but also 9 interceptions LY in the 7 games he started.  End of an era for  Boise as HC Peterson leaves to coach for Washington.  Team only had 8 wins last year compared to dd wins in 12 of previous 14 season.  This team lost to Wasinngton in its home opener last year 6-38.  I consider Ole Miss just as good as Washington’s team LY and most likely better.  Look for Boise State to still be great in the Mountain conference but no longer do they match up to the good to great teams in the elite conferences.

SMU @ Baylor -32 -110 to win 0.5 units

Disadvantages for SMU:

Team was deadlast in net punting LY (31.3yds) = Potential for many points for Baylor’s high powered offensive attack.  This team will have a new qb and a new offensive coordinator.  Lost to Texas Tech in its home opener LY by 18 points.  Baylor crushed Texas Tech by 29 points LY.  Arithmetic suggests a possible 47 point victory for Baylor in the homeopener.

Advantages for Baylor:  HC Art Briles in his 7^th year as HC is 43-27 ATS.  Big 12 player of the year QB Bryce Petty returns after shattering NCAA records in 2013, averaging 618.8 ypg and 52.4ppg.  LY the bears defense led the FBS with 6.5 three and outs per game ly.  In the L5HGs against SMU the team is 5-0 ATS spread.  Team literally destroyed teams in their conference last year by as much as the spread is for this game.  I can see Baylor winning this game by 40 or more points.

Southern Miss @ Mississippi ST -26 to win 0.5 units

Disadvantages for Southern Miss:  HC Todd Monken’s 2^nd year as HC.  Last year the team was 1-11.  The team was TO prone LY with 38 turnovers lost.  This team was blown out LY is many games against mediocre opponents.  Expect the same this year from an SEC team.

Advantages for Mississippi State:  16 returning starters including QB Dak Prescott and his receiving corp.  He passed for 2,000 yards and rushed for 800.  Last year this group set 7 school records including total yards, passing yards, ypg and passing ypg.

I’ve done more research into these games to come up with my decisions to take them.  However this takes up a descent amount of time so I just wanted to show some obvious examples of how I came up with my picks.  Basically researched all the games and looked for teams who performed good to great last season.  They were from elite conferences and have consistent tendencies to have the same performance this year.  On the opposite end I looked for teams from weak conferences who are most likely to drop in performance this year or have already proven they are likely to be just as bad as last season.  Because of the unknown of a new season I feel Vegas is more generous in the opening weeks with spreads with favorites.  Take advantage of these games.  I recommend a 4 team parlay also.  I noticed some of the spreads have been marked up in these games since I got them.  I still recommend them.  I will have other games in the upcoming weeks but they contain different set of situations.  I know my spelling is off but I give nun people since it is midnight.

My next picks are games where I feel teams have lost key players to keep up their pace from the previous season(at least during the first few games) and the spreads are in a favorable range for the opponent to beat it.

 Georgia -7 -125 vs Clemson to win 0.5 units

Advantages for Georgia:  Last year the team was decimated by injuries and the team is now back to normal health.  QB Hutson was a star in his first two starts last year as QB returns.  This is a revenge game from LS.

Disadvantages for Clemson:  Boyd, Watkins, McDowell, and Bryant who were involved in 5,200 of the 6,800 of total offensive yards need to be replaced.  That is over 76 percent of the offensive production.

Navy +17 -110 to win 0.5 units vs Ohio St.

Advantages for Navy:  Returns its starting QB along with 5 of its starting lineman.  Led the nation in fewest penalties and fewest turnovers.  Navy steps up their games against nonconference BCS schools as they have 21 wins against them since 2003 making them the most in the nation.

Disadvantages for Ohio State:  Two of their top running backs have moved on.  4 offensive lineman with 41 starts are no longer on the team.

The next games are situations in which I have observed many games from the teams during the season and have conviction of how the teams with perform this year along with stats backing them.

Bowling Green -7 -120 to win 0.5 units vs  Western Kentucky

Advantages for Bowling Green:  Led nation in TOP LY with 34mpg.  3^rd ranked in red zone defense and 5^th best team in scoring defense (15.9).  New coach plans on bringing more of an up tempo offense.  The team returns the starting QB and most of offensive line is intact.

Disadvantages for Western Kentucky:  I like to use red zone scoring offense and defense as a strategy in determining which teams are more efficient.  This game stuck out to me in this category.  Western Kentucky Red Zone OFF Scoring:  In 12 games WK Red Zone Rush TD 27.  Bowling Green Red Zone Rush TD Defense in 14 games allowed only 14 Rush TD’s.  I put a higher weight on a great defense then I do a great offense.  That is why you see Stanford beat Oregon.  Bowling Green’s defense will hang if hurt Western Kentucky’s run game.  Bowling Green Redzone Defense Pass TDs are insanely better at only 6 in 14 games.  When it comes Western Kentucky they had only 12 passing redzone TD’s.  Again likely defense will keep up and probably limit that stat to being a lower average.  Other side of spectrum Bowling Green RZRTDs were 28 in 14 games while passing only 12tds.  Western Kentucky’s RDZRTD allowed in 12 games was 24.  This matches up perfect with Bowling Green’s RDZRTDs so expect their normal production on this part.  Western Kentucky only allowed however only 5 RDZPTDs LY.  That is not a big deal though because Bowling Greens production come from the run game which as we know opens up a pass game.

I have 3 more games to go which will do later to close my analysis

Da Punisher and Train

then which teams are your "live dogs" in week 1...

I like UVA, but I probably won't play it...I advocate that  week 1, is the one and only week and that one can ride the fav train all the way to