NCAA FOOTBALL WEEK 7 (49-24-2 YTD)

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Hey JD.  Wondering about your thoughts on this.  Now I know teasers are sucker bets.  I do like to dabble in them a bit, especially 10 pt 3 teamers.  I wasnt able to lock in some of your picks with the lines you got.  Im thinking of this.  Your thoughts.

Duke +20, Kent St +8, Toledo -3 (Noon games)

Ball St +7, West Virginia +6, West Virginia o67.5 (330 games)

Florida +1, San Jose St +7, Memphis +28 (4-600 games, Memphis scares me)

Air Force o50, La Tech +27.5, La Tech o70

Thoughts?

would never really advise teasers but i do like duke +20.5, colorado state +31, Wva over 67


you never want to cross the -0- line with any teasers.

Hey JD - I like your record on totals, so what do you think about the UM v Illinois over at 51?  I don't think either defense is good and UM can score quickly.  BOL

I think the total is 49 right now...i would wait, maybe a play at 48...

hi jdn, i didnt mean to doubt your capping skills, its only a thought that sometimes law of averages catch up with you or anybody in that position. sometimes it works. i saw one highly respected capper here go on 10-0 on totals and next week started with 1-5 record. when someone wins everything one week, it doesnt mean its due to his capping skills, similarly whe he loses everything its not because he didnt cap them correctly. sometimes you need that little luck to favor us to win the marginal calls.

anyway good luck to you this week as well and keep rolling.

i follow a different strategy and its working fine with me. i take 3-4 good cappers and keep noting down their record. if x has done very bad this week, i take all his picks next week. similarly if x has done very well i fade his picks next week. overall its working well for me. i also have my own picks which are small. i am not so much comfortable in this sport but i like the game.

Kent State @ Army
Saturday, 11 AM CST
Kent -2  (I locked in at +4 Sunday afternoon)
o/u 58.5
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Line:
the line opened up at +4 and i jumped out of my chair when i saw it. I placed a 6 unit wager on the game (ties my largest wager of the year) and within 15 minutes the line moved to +3, then +2, then 1.5, and now sits at -2 for Kent State. It has moved a full 6 points.

Kent:
Kent has revealed everything that I thought that they would be this year on Defense. Very strong against the run, Less than mediocre against the pass. Kent has been very ferocious this year when analyzing the front 7. they have been able to smother teams this year allowing only 642 rush yards this year through 5 games.
they have forced 13 turnovers and are allowing only 20/60 on third downs this year. Kent dominates time of possession, with an average TOP of 35 minutes to 25 minutes in their favor.

kent has shown an offensive explosiveness this year that has been lacking in years past. they are very balanced on offense passing for 999 yds this year and rushing for 1009 through 5 games. they are averaging 402 yards per game, and surprisingly this year they have had stellar quarterback play. Thier dualing quarterbacks (Spencer Keith and David Fisher) have played very well completing 84-149 with only three interceptions and 5 scoring tosses.

Kent has a 13-5 Turnover ratio and converts 35/83 on third downs (42.16%)

Army:
Army comes into the game with the countries best rushing attack averaging 397 ypg. 5.7 yards per carry. 107 first downs by rush. They have a really shifty running back in Raymond Maples who averages 134 ypg. he is very explosive and can run well in all directions. the army black knights run the flexbone style traditional option offense but you will also see some power sweep, fly sweep, counter to the wing back, trap to the full back, QB keeper, screen sweep, and minimal pass game. Army wants to run the ball about 92% of the time, and call about 2 pass plays per quarter. Army operates at an extremely suprisingly fast tempo, running 390 offensive plays this year through 5 games. they have only punted 12 times this year in 5 games, while going for it 18 times on 4th down.

on defense army struggles to get off the field. they Allow teams to convert 35/60 times on 3rd down this year (58%). they are allowing 463 yards per game and have had little success this year stopping anybody. they have allowed scores on 17-20 redzone attempts and teams have scored a total of 25 touchdowns this year vs army. they have intercepted 1 pass this year and have forced 11 sacks.

Army averages 35 yards per punt and has a FG kicker who is 4/5 on the year. 11/13 on PAT's.


Take:
This game will be back and fourth. Army will struggle to move the ball on offense if they do not play in front of the chains. Kent has a very athletic front 7 and if they prepare appropriately for the triple option, they should be able to limit what army can do and force them to throw the football. Army might struggle to sustain drives and if they gamble and go for it on 4th down, Kent could see some short fields. Army is good at running the football, but they rely on boring people to sleep and then popping a big run. I cannot see kent becoming undisciplined on defense against the run. i think Army will run for 100 yds less than their season average and will be forced to pass which they cannot do. 
                   I do not think that Army can stop kent state on defense and Kent COULD come close to scoring 40+ points yet again in this matchup. I think kent will control the clock, slow the pace, allow their defense to be fresh, and maintain complete balance on offense.  I think their quarterbacks will continue to be smart with the football, that their running game will flourish, and that army will have to find a way to step up and get kent state out of rhythm some how. I cannot see this happening.
                    An interesting fact about this game is this. Kent has outscored its opponents 27-0 in the 1st quarter and Army has been outscored 56-34. Army has been outscored 107-59 in the 1st half of games as well this year, which means they are constantly playing from behind. I will call for Kent to get out in front, make army uncomfortable and smother Army on the defensive front.

                                                                 31-20 Kent.
                                                                      

good shit jd$

Kent State +4    MONSTER PLAY 6u

BOL brotha hope you cash BIG this week. may you be wiping your ass with 50's after this weekend.     

Your bookie

Like a lot of that card 

my man!!!!!

going to look into more but will be playing tulsa's team total over tomorrow. Utep putrid at stopping the run, tulsa should have a BIG night tomorrow night. hoping the TT is 37.5 or lower.

GL on your picks JD  

Bol!

GL, gonna tail most of play, eventho the line jump..

great work JDN!

I am with you on Bama -21 and Florida -7...

I had a tough September, but a good week 6...

You were right about LSU...overrated dogshit to the max...

Let's kick ass in week 7!

 

I have been looking at Tulsa TT too, but couldn't pull the trigger yet. Seeing that you like it too I might.

While the UAB defense is really bad it is also a fact they played some big teams. They kept the Sooners at 24, Rebels at 28 and the Badgers at 37. They never allowed more than 37 points.

Tulsa on the other hand scored 23 against Iowa State and 27 against Fresno State. All other team totals went over 45 or more. I am having a hard time rating the defense of UTEP. Are they really that bad or are they just below average because of their strength of schedule?

Would love to here your insight on this bro.

anything for the weekday games

Yeah!...real good stuff.

Good luck jdn

[Quote: Originally Pwould u take 38osted by jdnmoney] going to look into more but will be playing tulsa's team total over tomorrow. Utep putrid at stopping the run, tulsa should have a BIG night tomorrow night. hoping the TT is 37.5 or lower.
[/Quote]

 

would u take 38 thats the line that 5 dimes has

BOL guys, locked in