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NCAA WEEK 10 * Stop.....Drop.....& Roll..... **

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boltsfan

Veteran

Joined: Sep, 2010

Posts: 3392

Posted: Oct. 30, 2012 - 12:47 PM ET #101

All aboard!!!

Best of luck Train

#clover

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TRAIN69

Legend

Joined: Oct, 2002

Posts: 54533

Posted: Oct. 30, 2012 - 1:01 PM ET #102

Quote Originally Posted by sims_key:

not sure why records seem to always disappear when the season turns a little south...seems like a trend here on covers. Luckyguy, pucku & target9 are the pros at this. you are better than them train.

you're a good capper train. i understand why others do it (they suck), but just not sure why you do this. don't take this as a negative post.

Truth is I just got super busy and was preoccupied with work and distracted a tad by the MLB playoffs. I was 107-107 headed into week 8 and all even after my big Bama win, so now I am 140-125 ytd.

Hope that clears up any confusion.

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Mexicutioner

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2010

Posts: 24

Posted: Oct. 30, 2012 - 1:04 PM ET #103

GL Train...

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TRAIN69

Legend

Joined: Oct, 2002

Posts: 54533

Posted: Oct. 30, 2012 - 6:45 PM ET #104

Quote Originally Posted by Raiders23:

Train.....do you like huskies getting +4 @ Cal? I live in bay area and see Cal giving no effort and Tedford knows he's out the door.

Any thoughts

I do like Wash. Will probably wait and see if I can get 4.5 or better....

bol

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blowoutgm

Captain

Joined: Aug, 2011

Posts: 5852

Posted: Oct. 30, 2012 - 10:31 PM ET #105

Seminole 8

Just reread your post where you said you weren't hating- sorry for coming off so harsh-Been in a shitty mood since finding out I have to go back offshore early and miss the LSU/Bama game which I had tickets for!! but my comments about winning and betting lots of plays still stands. It can be done.

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shark_apreza

All-Star

Joined: Dec, 2009

Posts: 12718

Posted: Oct. 30, 2012 - 10:50 PM ET #106

Like ur picks .... but i dont think Bama will hang 31 on LSU .... and yes LSU might not score over 6-9pts but LSU wont allow bama to blow them out

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composite

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 4418

Posted: Oct. 31, 2012 - 2:15 AM ET #107

I think USC matches up well vs Oregon. Oregon's O is built on speed, not power like Stanford. Plus, this is easily the best offense that Oregon will face.

People forget that Arizona played well vs Oregon, too. The game was at Eugene though and Oregon simply ran away w/ it in the 4Q. USC played on the road. Home field makes a big difference in college football.

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composite

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 4418

Posted: Oct. 31, 2012 - 2:17 AM ET #108

On the flip side of that last game, what do you think of UCLA -3 over Arizona? Mora Jr. has been doing a great job this year and the Wildcats are prime for a letdown after the big USC win.

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DRJ63

Banned

Joined: May, 2012

Posts: 311

Posted: Oct. 31, 2012 - 3:06 AM ET #109

Agree with BAMA and ducks

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BigUnit

MVP

Joined: Sep, 2008

Posts: 19509

Posted: Oct. 31, 2012 - 8:09 AM ET #110

Never saw that Bama line at -6.5, man you're good!

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TRAIN69

Legend

Joined: Oct, 2002

Posts: 54533

Posted: Oct. 31, 2012 - 9:46 AM ET #111

Quote Originally Posted by composite:

On the flip side of that last game, what do you think of UCLA -3 over Arizona? Mora Jr. has been doing a great job this year and the Wildcats are prime for a letdown after the big USC win.

I kinda like UCLA, just not sure if their defense is up to the task.

bol

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TRAIN69

Legend

Joined: Oct, 2002

Posts: 54533

Posted: Oct. 31, 2012 - 9:47 AM ET #112

Quote Originally Posted by BigUnit:

Never saw that Bama line at -6.5, man you're good!

I didnt did either.....had to buy the hook.

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blp2422

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2008

Posts: 128

Posted: Oct. 31, 2012 - 10:31 AM ET #113

What book was offering Tex AM at -2.5?

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Ivygreek

Prospect

Joined: Jul, 2010

Posts: 73

Posted: Oct. 31, 2012 - 10:40 AM ET #114

Train- Always value your opinon on picks. Any thoughts on Ohio St/ Illinois? Im an Illini fan but they are just not good this year. I see the Buckeyes covering the 27 easily. Your opinion?

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Financiallocks

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2012

Posts: 122

Posted: Oct. 31, 2012 - 10:45 AM ET #115

Be careful with ducks and tide. Everyone I know loves both. Ducks seem like a layup. (Never the case in prime time game). I personally believe nobody can hang with the ducks. But, one of these is going down. It's those games where books either sweep or split. You could talk me into lsu, but not Trojans. It's never this easy. Chip will want to blow them out since the Irish have them at the end of the year. So maybe Lsu is the play. Not sure, but most everyone likes two road favorites who are both laying more than a t.d. This can't happen. Vegas won't let it. Good luck fellas

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TRAIN69

Legend

Joined: Oct, 2002

Posts: 54533

Posted: Oct. 31, 2012 - 2:30 PM ET #116

Quote Originally Posted by blp2422:

What book was offering Tex AM at -2.5?

Betonline sunday afternoon. May be forced to take MSU +7.5 and go for the middle.

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TRAIN69

Legend

Joined: Oct, 2002

Posts: 54533

Posted: Oct. 31, 2012 - 2:32 PM ET #117

Quote Originally Posted by Ivygreek:

Train- Always value your opinon on picks. Any thoughts on Ohio St/ Illinois? Im an Illini fan but they are just not good this year. I see the Buckeyes covering the 27 easily. Your opinion?

I think OSU should win 41-3, but can envision 30-10. No way I could play Illinois, but I'm not sure how interested the Bucks will be to kill. Might take the Illini TT under because if they go over their TT they have a decent shot at cover more than 24 points....

bol

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TRAIN69

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Joined: Oct, 2002

Posts: 54533

Posted: Oct. 31, 2012 - 2:36 PM ET #118

Quote Originally Posted by composite:

I think USC matches up well vs Oregon. Oregon's O is built on speed, not power like Stanford. Plus, this is easily the best offense that Oregon will face.

People forget that Arizona played well vs Oregon, too. The game was at Eugene though and Oregon simply ran away w/ it in the 4Q. USC played on the road. Home field makes a big difference in college football.

USC "matches up well" with every team in the country

Problem is their coaching and lack of depth. Late 3rd q and 4th q the linebackers arent gonna be able to cover the Ducks rbs out of the backfield or chase the qb down as well. USC has a lot of "pro talent", but thats not gonna help them play sandlot ball vs Oregon.

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TRAIN69

Legend

Joined: Oct, 2002

Posts: 54533

Posted: Oct. 31, 2012 - 2:44 PM ET #119

Add:

Florida -16.5

Mizzou TT U12.5

Akron +21.5

ULM -10

Tenn TT O43

Stanford -27.5

Stanford TT O39.5

Navy TT O33.5

LSU TT U16

Baylor -17

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tt808

Prospect

Joined: Mar, 2012

Posts: 352

Posted: Oct. 31, 2012 - 3:03 PM ET #120

Hey Train, I've been hearing alot of dissarray on the Idaho team the last week, coach fired, starting QB dissmissed. This team was not even any good before and now they face a pretty decent San Jose St team ranked 9th in passing vs a shitty pass defense. Yet I see 96% on SJST and the line moved down from 20 to 19. Your take on this game, please

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Rambler882

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2012

Posts: 225

Posted: Oct. 31, 2012 - 3:07 PM ET #121

Good luck Train. If you had to pick a few of your favorites what would they be? I want to make a select few big plays this week and would like your input.

Thanks

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BadGnOmens

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2012

Posts: 1335

Posted: Oct. 31, 2012 - 3:07 PM ET #122

I dunno guys..... Believe me I think Bama rolls, but by that many points???? LSU may not have that great a secondary but BAMA pass game isnt oregon here and it is ALWAYS set up by the run game, and what D have they played that is on LSU's level.. NONE!...... LSU strength is its front 7 and this will be tough task to run on that bunch........ Not to mention this is LSU Nat. Championship for all intents and purposes, at home in a nuts Death Valley after last year, at night... Mad Hatter will have his team UP, Way Up, for this one..... All that being said I still think Bama rolls but only in low 20's, around 23-3, Bama will be content to control the game and clock, not give opportunities for LSU's D to get them back into the game.... Will be fun to watch regardless

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Noonkid

Rookie

Joined: Nov, 2008

Posts: 751

Posted: Oct. 31, 2012 - 4:11 PM ET #123

Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

Add:

GT -6.5 .....Not sure who the Terps are gonna throw out there saturday. Regardless, I think GT has value since they have stunk it up recently (like they usually do this time of year). Maryland offense should struggle even though the GT defense isnt that good. Option is still tough to defend and if Maryland cant move the ball, the 3rd and 4th quarters become a tall task to stop an option attack.

Love GT's option play. They should do very well against Marland

Also on Oregon and Bama. Will be taking Oregon 1st half max play as well.

I've been taking Clemson the last 5 weeks...but I'm not sure this week...but don't know if I can hold off with the streak they are on.

Should go up another 10 units this week I would imagine.

I stopped betting NFL because I'm just making way to much money on Saturday's. My bookie hates me.

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Lb_of_flesh

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2011

Posts: 304

Posted: Oct. 31, 2012 - 4:35 PM ET #124

Quote Originally Posted by HowardLangston:

i have not crunched the numbers for 70% of the games ur playing this week but for the games i have they are almost all coinflips except ISU that i like and exceot for Texas and i have no idea what ur reasoning for this pick is as it is garbage.

I honestly feel bad for any new people that come into this forum and see ur thread with all its views and blindly tail you. Judging by your picks you seem to bet with a guy feeling and it does not seem to me like your actually research crunching numbers.

You pick a TON of games that are coinflips and hope for the best. Really looking how u have been running this year it is not surprising to me at all. You look like a genius if your flips hit and if they dont you lose people a ton of money.

Start your own thread then....

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Lb_of_flesh

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2011

Posts: 304

Posted: Oct. 31, 2012 - 4:40 PM ET #125

Quote Originally Posted by HowardLangston:

thank you for posting ur reasoning.

Now you say tech is one dimensional. I am going to go out on a limb here and say you have not watched much if any of techs games this year. Tech is far from one dimensional. Techs running game is very powerful this year, it was pretty good last year as well. Also you have texas at home who could not stop w virginia at all. You have tech who traveled to w virginia and shut their high powered offense down to hold them to 14 points. No other team this year has shut that offense down except k state. (i really think TCU will be able to shut it down also this upcoming saturday but thats a different discussion). Techs defense is very capable of shutting offenses down. comparing tech being blown out to both kstate and OU is pretty irrelevant when it comes to playing texas. You are talking about 2 top 10 teams (not OU anymore) and the same thing happen, and worse might i add when it came to OU and texas and the same thing, again even worse, will happen when Texas plays K state at the end of the year.

This game is actually one of the more easier games to cap IMO. It might be bc i live in austin and know both these teams fairly well.

This game simply comes down to this IMO.

What team is going to be able to stop the other teams offense? Its a simple answer Techs.

UTs defense has proven throughout this year that it can not stop any decent offense. Tech has proven that it can do this. Sure it might not be able to stop powerful top ten offenses that also have a defense behind them but it can stop decent offenses and powerful one sided offenses (teams that lack any defense).

I feel that anyone picking Texas in this situation is hoping that Tech will not be able to stop them throughout the entire game. IMO its the only way they cover this spread. Tech will have no problem going down the field on Texas' defense bc their defense simply does not exist.

You have to understand that this is a pretty big rivalry game between these two teams. Texas put a hurting on Tech last year when tech came into Austin, absolutely embarrassed them and you can be sure Tech is looking to repay that this year in Lubbock.

Tech will be able to stop some of texas' drives and i have a lot of doubt that texas' D will be able to do the same. This is simply what it comes down to. The offenses are pretty much equal. I would easily say techs offense is far more efficient and better than Texas' and then going over to the defensive side its not even close.

To be honest i am very confused about the opening line as i thought it would easily be 10+ and like someone taught me earlier this year, if a line looks too good to be true than it probably is, but i believe this is a classic example of texas continuing to get more respect than it deserves. Over the past few years texas has continued to be overrated by vegas even as their team continues to get worse and worse. You can thank Mac Brown for that. And that is another point i failed to mention. The coaching advantage is strongly in Techs favor. Mac Brown is a joke. I would say one of the most overrated coaches out there.

Tech rolls this game winning by 3 touchdowns plus (lol a little much but yes, tech wins this easy by 14 to 21 plus.)

This is what forums are about. Discussing opinions and information and having other people telling you what they think about picks and giving their opinions and information.

If you just had these threads with a bunch of yes men around us with no one questioning picks we would all be broke

This is simply what it comes down to. The offenses are pretty much equal. I would easily say techs offense is far more efficient and better than Texas' and then going over to the defensive side its not even close.

Contradicting yourself. Make up your mind, preferably in your own thread.