Auburn, put on the party dress.
260-212 YTD
You kids havin fun yet or what!!??
Lets dig in.....
Mizzou vs Auburn
Lets get this out of the way. I'm a Mizzou homer. Fact. However, that hasnt stopped me from betting against them BIG in the past. This year though, I am 11-1 betting them, and just like Mizzou, I should be 12--0. Tough loss to So Carolina in double OT with a frshman qb Mauk leading the way....bummer. Mizzou hasnt won a game by less than a td this year, and their average margin of victory is 20 ppg (throwing out Murray St). Auburn on the other hand is winning by 15 ppg (throwing out W Carolina). Mizzou was never won a game they could have very easily lost (if you know what I mean). Auburn "coulda" easily lost to Bama, Miss St, Tex A&M, Georgia and Wash St....I know, they won and thats all that matters....
Luck Edge: Auburn by a freakin mile
Sportcenter has palyed that fg return td sooooo much its now a ghost image on my plama tv! There is NO way that victory isnt lingering. You dont beat the defending champs and your biggest rival....in a game you werent supposed to win and not get pumped up to cloud 9. Now you just gotta play that old Big 8 team Missouri? Yawner for sure right?
Meanwhile, Mizzou was supposed to beat Johnny Football and they did. Wasnt fancy. Some good defense and decent offense. Hardly even saw highlights on ESPN.....
Letdown edge: Mizzou
Mizzou is one of the most balanced teams in the nation, ranking 42nd in passing @ 253 ypg and 18th in rushing @ 237 ypg, scoring 39 ppg which is 15th in the nation. Good for 18th in the nation in total offense. Auburn is 105th in passing @ 173 ypg, 5th in rushing @ 318 ypg 18th in scoring at almost 39 ppg...Good for 16th in the nation in total offense. So, what can you gather from this? Auburn likes to run because its what they do well and Malzahn is smart enough to know Marshall isnt Drew Brees. A good chunk of Auburns passing yards come on running downs (2nd short etc), not 3rd and long. They dont have the efficiency as a unit to pull off consistant ball movement through the air...marshall isnt the best passer and their receivers are adequate at best. Mizzou has not seen an offense like Auburn will throw at them saturday, so I cant say if Auburn comes to play they wont be able to move the ball well...Mizzou wrs are gonna be trouble for the Auburn secondary....DGB and Washington should get a lot of open looks and Marcus Lucas will be able to get some favorable matchups with lbs....
Offensive edge: Mizzou due to balance
The only defense "similar" to Mizzous that Auburn has seen is LSU. Yes Bama is physical and well coached, but they dont have the overall team speed like LSU and Mizzou. Quickness at d-end is a must to stop the option. You have to get upfield and make Marshall make a quick decision. Now, on the other side of the ball, Mizzou has a stable of rbs and a true double threat qb in James Franklin....something Auburn has only seen one time all year in Johnny Football. They gave up 41 and that included him being injured for most of the 4th quarter. They let Evans catch 11 balls for 287 yards. Mizzou has better receivers than A &M (has a group). Auburn ranks 71st in total defense, allowing 159 rushing and 256 passing per game, while MU is 49th in total D, allowing 119 rushing and 266 passing.
Sams has been a beast all year and Mizzou is 10th in the nation in tackles for loss)....
Mizzou is giving up just 20 ppg (taking Murray St out) while Auburn giving up just over 24 ppg (taking out W Carolina). Mizzou hasnt allowed more than 28 points in a game this year, Auburn has allowed more than 28 3 times.....
Defensive edge: Mizzou due to Auburn not being able to be balanced offensively
Truman the Tiger isnt very intimidating. WAR EAGLE is!!! I should note however, its slightly unfair to have 2 mascots/team names.
Mascot edge: Auburn
I have never been a big Pinkel fan, and thats well documented. He has pleasantly surprised me this year, which I'm sure is due in large part to the new OC. Long gone are the delayed handoffs and very predictable bubble screens. Malzahn has had a lot of success this year, and won a title in 2010 as Auburns OC. Pinkels been in a few "big" games and mutiplle bowl games, and never seems to have any balls or go for broke attitude. Thats fake punt vs Ole Miss early int he 3rd quarter really opened my eyes. I think all the experience, both good and bad, should benefit Mizzou
Coaching edge : Mizzou (barely)
Auburn will no doubt have more fans there. Doubt many Mizzou fans saw this coming (other than me and a handful of other very smart people)
Fan/crowd edge : Auburn
Vegas opened this line at Mizzou -2. Its now sitting at Auburn -2. Is vegas stupid, or do they know more than most?
Vegas edge: Mizzou
Mizzou will give up some big runs, but will ultimately put Auburn in a few 3rd and longs and get an int or 2 (to go along with a fumble or 2). I think Franklin can maintain his composure (not to mention he has fresh legs from not playing for a month in the middle of the season) and Josey/DGB/Washington will have some big plays.
Mizzou 41 Auburn 28
I'm not trying to convince anyone to play Mizzou. I wrote this so I could think the entire game over. If you like Auburn, bol to you. I will not make a play on this game until later in the week or even saturday as there is no real reason to bet now when Mizzou +3 or better is possible....Will also wait on the total to see if it drops from 58 (would like to see 56)