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NCAA week 8

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Posted: #101
So, you still play temple right
 
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Posted: #102
Quote Originally Posted by lmb4321:

Like Arkansas...and looking at CIncinnati......any thoughts on the Bearcats???.....Thanks for all your input Mega....

next pick

Cincy / SMU over 61.5


We have significantly changed our mind on this one - it pays to dig - well sometimes it does - other times you do a 12 page writeup and still lose your azz.....We have strong leans now to both SMU and the over ....Gonna roll with the over b/c we think its safer - If SMU does not score a bunch they will not cover 13 so this way we win if Cincy rolls 96-72.

Over? 

1. Cincy D is beyond bad - giving up over 7 yds/play and 570 per game - Just a big pile of steaming dung......SMU D may be worse - last 3 games have given up 58 46 45 and have given up 40+ every game - last 3 games given up 663 614 581Y....Oh and Cincy again - well 50 55 41 points given up last 3 games - last wk gave up almost 10 yds a carry on 35 attempts rushing vs miami

2. Neither team can run; Might as well pass all day. Cincy QB Gunner is fantastic and will need to chuck it all day long.....18 TD passes.....Injuries have decimated their backfield......Here is another MEGALOCKS GEM that you just cannot get anywhere else - and probably thank god - SMU leading rusher - in mid oct - has 102 ydslet that percolate for a minute - Well they can pass - does not look like it because SMU has played the #1 toughest schedule this yr - Last wk moved down in class and played a team without a brick wall D and QB threw 60 times for over 300Y.....This game may take 7 hrs to complete with all the passing

3. Cincy is a mess - Now we could take SMU but we missed the 14 and 14.5 and now some SHARP STEAM ANTI REVERSE PUBLIC TRAP money has come in on SMU.....We want to take adv of Cincy being awful but just dont trust SMU to cover as much as we do that SMU will score some points......June Jones is gone - Everyone happier - offense looked ok last wk - they even had enough confidence to go for it 6 times on 4th down and made 5....24 pts at EC we think they can get 24+ on Cincy even 17-20 and this game probably flies over

So taking the over. If you sparkies wanna play cincy just a word of warning upon our research - Cincy started late has had no bye - have lost 4 straight - cannot run the ball - cannot play D - dealing with suspensions and injuries - death of a player - and an asst coach charged with sexual assault - So you know we like to avoid the trap BS - when we see a line drop like this that seems odd - we dig a bit - and our initial lean to cincy took a reverse to SMU strong lean - It does not mean that SMU will cover - but there is almost always a reason for a strange line move - the reason here imo is that cincy is even worse than we think if that is possible and smu is better....just our two cents - when we dont understand something we think wtf are we missing - not oh Vegas is trapping us how else could they build a 38 story potato bar?

mega
 
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Posted: #103
Quote Originally Posted by WAIWAI:

So, you still play temple right

yes sir. not a sure thing just make sure wager size is appropriate do not go nuts
 
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Posted: #104
Train  agree Tenn gonna have their hands full in the trenches


pecador - you are looking at a good wk i think ! 
 
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Posted: #105
Duke 2.5 Virginia (51.5)

Gonna take a pass on this one after careful consideration - No take on the total....Side? Yes Virginia has played some pretty good teams and done pretty well - we still have the fair line right at 3.....Not gonna fault anyone for taking Va -  but our hesitation is that they have played only one road game this yr - been at home most of the season - HC is only 5-11 SU away and there is no doubt to us who has the edge at QB....Va has also lost 3 str at duke not saying just saying - Duke nobody likes them but they keep winning - yes for the most part the stats have not been in their favor when looking at box scores - but they played miami tough in bad weather on the road - beat an undefeated GT team on the road - yes they were outplayed for a yds standpoint - but they win - #3 in pass eff D #12 in turnover margin do not take many penalties - well coached - deeper at QB.....Gut says lean Va - but stats say lean Duke so we are gonna stay clear of this one on all accounts
 
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Posted: #106
Glad to see ya like EMU. Comforting.
 
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Posted: #107
Quote Originally Posted by trawler:

Glad to see ya like EMU. Comforting.
..........like your style of betting a ton ! 
 
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Posted: #108
just my 2 cents guy has to be wondering if emu can shut down buffalo qb who was on a scoring streak why can they not shut down umass  making the +141/2 a safer bet  great great thread as usual
 
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Posted: #109
Quote Originally Posted by rokisky:

just my 2 cents guy has to be wondering if emu can shut down buffalo qb who was on a scoring streak why can they not shut down umass  making the +141/2 a safer bet  great great thread as usual

great question

i like both - at the end of the day - decided to back EMich offense vs UMass offense and not worry at all about the EM D - UMass can really score GL !
 
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Posted: #110
Very nice write up and info as alway mega.. Thank you.
 
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Posted: #111
Mega, Temple line up to +8.5.   Thoughts ?
 
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Posted: #112
arma 

dallas - its just noise really going to 8.5 - seeing 7.5-8.5 still out there....opener was 9ish....can see it getting close to that on gameday more often than not the fav edges up its normal - Hard for anyone to bet "Temple" even tho the teams are pretty even so it makes sense to me - GL  !
 
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Posted: #113
megaluck wk8
 
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Posted: #114
 mice - you as well
 
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Posted: #115
Best of Luck this weekend buddy..
 
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Posted: #116
Quote Originally Posted by MosesGuthrie:

Still waiting for a Heinz Field write up part II Maine Road. 

Mega  (handshake) 

 So funny; I was there last night and kept thinking of ways to update that post of yore.  What kept striking me, though, was how little had changed.  Still a good 500 guys who trully looked liked they just walked off the 2nd shift at J&L Steel, even though there hasn't been a steel mill in Pittsburgh in 30 years.  If you're a fan a facial hair (and who isn't really?), that is clearly the place for you.   

Nothing that anybody wears fits.  Nothing.  Their faded Marino #13 uniforms look like sausage casings.  The only new thing I noticed this year was the incredible decible level of the PA system - trying to create by sheer foce the atmosphere that otherwise doesn't exist in the place.    They even pump the marching band though some field monitors, so it sounds like you're listening to a band playing at some other game.  In fairness, Pitt's band is so small (my son correctly noted that the band at his high school is larger - maybe a lot larger) that I guess there's just no way for the sound to fill the cavernous Hieronymus Bosch painting that is Heinz Field (indeed, because of the relatively small crowd last night, we were all in geniune retinal peril as the sea of mustard yellow seats glimmered in the floodlights like radioactive waste).  I've been to quieter tractor pulls. I truly couldn't take it after a while, and spent much of the second quarter mixing drinks and watching the Pens game in the interior part of the box.    I'm not sure I saw ten females all night, so I can't mine what surely would otherwise be a rich vien of material there.  I have to back in two weeks, as my nephew plays for Duke.  I'll try and keep a keener eye out then. 

 
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Posted: #117
cap 

maine .....marino jerseys like sausage casings
 
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Posted: #118
Good luck this week Mega! 
 
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Posted: #119
Mega - Awesome read as always. Much appreciated when you post your plays and opinions 
Histrionic personality disorder. It's sad
 
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Posted: #120
thanks guys !! appreciate it 

was hoping to get more games done just ran outta time....May add a play tomorrow before noon but not sure yet  have to do some digging and will only play if i can verify my leanage


 
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Posted: #121

Mega I like temple tonight but that crowd is going to be rocking!!!!!!!!

 
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Posted: #122
Thanks Mega for all the write ups..Appreciate always!!!
 
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Posted: #123
if somebody wasn't watching goat porn they could be feeding you more info for more write ups
 
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Posted: #124
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

Quote Originally Posted by lmb4321:

Like Arkansas...and looking at CIncinnati......any thoughts on the Bearcats???.....Thanks for all your input Mega....
next pickCincy / SMU over 61.5We have significantly changed our mind on this one - it pays to dig - well sometimes it does - other times you do a 12 page writeup and still lose your azz.....We have strong leans now to both SMU and the over ....Gonna roll with the over b/c we think its safer - If SMU does not score a bunch they will not cover 13 so this way we win if Cincy rolls 96-72.Over? 1. Cincy D is beyond bad - giving up over 7 yds/play and 570 per game - Just a big pile of steaming dung......SMU D may be worse - last 3 games have given up 58 46 45 and have given up 40+ every game - last 3 games given up 663 614 581Y....Oh and Cincy again - well 50 55 41 points given up last 3 games - last wk gave up almost 10 yds a carry on 35 attempts rushing vs miami2. Neither team can run; Might as well pass all day. Cincy QB Gunner is fantastic and will need to chuck it all day long.....18 TD passes.....Injuries have decimated their backfield......Here is another MEGALOCKS GEM that you just cannot get anywhere else - and probably thank god - SMU leading rusher - in mid oct - has 102 ydslet that percolate for a minute - Well they can pass - does not look like it because SMU has played the #1 toughest schedule this yr - Last wk moved down in class and played a team without a brick wall D and QB threw 60 times for over 300Y.....This game may take 7 hrs to complete with all the passing3. Cincy is a mess - Now we could take SMU but we missed the 14 and 14.5 and now some SHARP STEAM ANTI REVERSE PUBLIC TRAP money has come in on SMU.....We want to take adv of Cincy being awful but just dont trust SMU to cover as much as we do that SMU will score some points......June Jones is gone - Everyone happier - offense looked ok last wk - they even had enough confidence to go for it 6 times on 4th down and made 5....24 pts at EC we think they can get 24+ on Cincy even 17-20 and this game probably flies overSo taking the over. If you sparkies wanna play cincy just a word of warning upon our research - Cincy started late has had no bye - have lost 4 straight - cannot run the ball - cannot play D - dealing with suspensions and injuries - death of a player - and an asst coach charged with sexual assault - So you know we like to avoid the trap BS - when we see a line drop like this that seems odd - we dig a bit - and our initial lean to cincy took a reverse to SMU strong lean - It does not mean that SMU will cover - but there is almost always a reason for a strange line move - the reason here imo is that cincy is even worse than we think if that is possible and smu is better....just our two cents - when we dont understand something we think wtf are we missing - not oh Vegas is trapping us how else could they build a 38 story potato bar?mega



MEGA, follow your stuff every week. Would you still play the SMU Cincy OVER if it was at 63?? Missed out on the 61.5 just wanted to hear how you would feel about it.

Happy
 
 
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Posted: #125
Quote Originally Posted by syracusejoe:

Mega I like temple tonight but that crowd is going to be rocking!!!!!!!!





Lots of people paranoid about Temple and the public dog - line move - blah blah - guess what - if Temple does not cover - it is nothing sinister - it is just because the people that bet Houston are RIGHT.  Lets have fun and watch the game and see what happens ! Friday night NCAA dung fests can be unpredictable 
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