NCAA wk 11

Freaks  Vegas Trap Guy  Bloodbath Guy  Covers Nation

On to week 11. Last week had a 4-1 slate which makes us 10/10 in winning weeks so far. Gambling gods are smiling upon us and we are grateful. Worst week so far 3-2.

Thanks a million to everyone who stops in to talk about the games. Yes - the picks are working out - but it is the analysis of all the games that we really enjoy especially when we hear how it is helping people make their own decisions.

Going to try for an EARLY TASTER  or two - Have some stuff to do today. As per usual - IF you want to get on these early tasters you need to stick around and wait for the picks mid to late afternoon. A bunch of other guys will have threads as well. There is usually a small window to get the best line BUT remember like we said last week - it is rare for the line to matter come game time.

GL to all  Play SAFE. Any week can trip you up. NCAA football betting can be a cruel mistress.

MEGA

Wahoo -  great work last week pal. ......Opening lines were tight this week could NOT find any EARLY TASTERS.........I must say I am interested in Baylor if the line keeps dropping I really like the Sooners but ????.....Interested in your thoughts - of course the new QB really throws a wrench into things not that we needed any more difficulty handicapping B12 games.

BWS

dewey

TXP24 ....congrats on your scores buddy

TAMU - thanks !

Puffkit - you got it - will put Troy game on the request list .....You are the King of the FUNBELT - you nailed that Troy +24 vs App St almost won outright waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaattt?

lakerz .....I do not know how you guys can bet NFL ....today was epic SCREWJOBS everywhere....at least in NCAA I never get worked up b/c they are essentially kids and the coaches are doing their best but in the NFL WTF the stupidity beyond belief. Hang in there....Also looking forward to a great week of discussion.

Tuesday MACtion

Ohio 7 Kent

Megalocks line 5

Sagarin 11  

This has all the makings of classic get bent over the washing machine and take it in the pooper MACtion bad boy.....Sure - Kent cannot run the ball - or pass the ball - no receiver over 300Y and no RB over 400Y - 2 bad QBs.....and they are coming off blowing a 17-6 lead to Buffalo (accidentally of course).........we DID NOTE last week that when you have a team just hanging out there forever at -2.5 against a team that NOBODY wants to bet - you are asking for TROUBLE not always but you need to learn to RUN far and fast from a game like that just our 2 cents that just introduces an element into the handicapping equation you cannot account for.....Back to this game....The good news for Kent backers is that their D is excellent - #1 in MAC in yds per play D - and despite their comical offense - they took Marshall to OT - lost to Minny by 3 - almost beat a Buffalo team that beat Ohio 41-17.....So.......Given that their D is gonna keep them in any game not involving one of the MAC big boys - and the fact that Ohio has over a dozen guys on the injury report listed as Q.....AND the fact that Ohio's D is the bottom third of the MAC in many stats that matter - this game is shaping up as a DUNGFEST....Ohio more talent on offense but their last 3 games are over -70 points ATS while losing 152-55. Oh brother. Gonna wait for the total - might be a touch high given the recent totals Ohio has given up.

Summary. No lean on side but you would need to drink a lot to bet Ohio and actually watch the game. Waiting for total.

MEGA

Tuesday MACtion

Toledo 4.5 Chips

Megalocks line - 4

Sagarin - 5.5

Very interesting battle shaping up in the MAC West which involves both of these teams.........W Michigan in the drivers' seat with 0 conference losses but still some games between the 4 teams with 1 loss or less in conference which makes this one very interesting.

Toledo is the much more balanced team - now the Chips have made backers a lot of COLD HARD CASH this year but Toledo is our lean in this one.....Like we said more balanced - will get into that - and have won 5 straight in the series all by double digits - the biggest concern we have about C Michigan is their total lack of running game - you all know how we hate teams that cannot run the ball and as good as Rush is - you are not going to beat Toledo with just the passing game unless you get really fortunate with turnovers.....C Michigan does have the #1 ranked D in the MAC but on a yards per play D basis Toledo is slightly better....CM has played a much tougher schedule IMO - even more than Sagarin ratings would indicate and THAT my friends is the reason why this will not hit the official play list - Toledo has been beating up lesser and coming off a loss - CM more battle tested.....We had a feeling last week that Toledo QB Ely would screw it up at some point and sure enough Toledo somehow lost that game despite that OL and crazy 3-headed monster at RB running seemingly at will for most of the game.....bad news is that CM has the 2nd fewest int in the MAC and the 2nd fewest sacks in the MAC so not sure they can force Ely into mistakes but he may have lost confidence after last week......C Michigan has only had 3 home games vs FBS teams this year and played very well vs okie st....beat NIU (a 245823409 star megalocks loser) and crushed Buffalo. A couple extra days to prepare as well.

Summary. Lean Toledo (only if desperate for action) but no higher than -4. Very interested in the total going to see what pops up tomorrow.

mega