NCAA wk 2

 Thx guys....Covers Nation cracks us up

jules - "They Really Need This One Guy"  Love it !!! We are gonna have to get him on our payroll to inspire some great posts in the future

bizzo -  sup buddy !? You know us - we don't worry about who the QBs are or who the coaches are etc...until we see the pointspread. That is what puts everything in context. GL this wk

up next

LSU write-up

Thursday/Friday games

mega

First play this week

LSU -3 -115

As always - we will talk about our rationale - any one item could be debated - but taking all the BS below in aggregate - makes us think LSU -3 is worth a shot.....

1. Miss St is relatively inexperienced this yr - only 7 RS and a front seven on D that at least on paper is not as good as last yr; Now keep in mind - they could be better than LSU by the end of the yr - just think it is a lot to ask this early in the season wk 2 vs LSU...Yes they have a very very good QB but guys come on he cannot carry the team sure they could cover but that is a lot to ask of the QB.

2. Miss St last 3 games - ended with loss to Ole Miss....complete mail-in vs G Tech (yes both good teams but still...) and last wk beat S Miss 34-16 and only outgained them 442-413....One of their scores was set up by a blk punt and they also had a KO return TD....Now everything counts - but reading about the game and some hardcore fan reaction - people seem not too thrilled ab out the defense and while that is just some random opinions - our intrepid staff member JOHN COCKTOASTIN does a lot of in depth on the ground with the people research and it seems as though LSU may have some ability to MATRICULATE in the passing game once the run is established.

3. LSU ended last yr with 384 yds rushing vs T AM and 285 vs ND....They should be able to pound the run game....Fournette at RB a MEGALOCKS Fav...they run fast niblets around the edge and take the odd deep shot.

4. Don't be "Dak at home Guy"....If they were playing Ohio St and laying 14 points I am pretty sure that you would take Ohio St +14.....Need to consider the pointspread and 3 seems pretty fair essentially just need to win the game - and even tho it may mean nothing - LSU has won 7 straight games at Miss St SU and do have a loss to Miss St LY to remember so its not like they will take these guys for granted.

5. We have the fair line at LSU -7. this is NOT what we think the spread will come out at - it is just our number.....So if Miss St was +10 or higher we would look to play Miss St if research warranted it....at -3 .....LSU becomes attractive.

Finally - yes LSU did not play last wk...well actually they did - 11 plays ....all 11 analyzed in detail on a great LSU site we read....so while they could be "rusty"....Miss St has not much tape to look at and LSU got out of it injury free....I'm sure opinions will differ on this point....Finally #2 - let's be adults and not blame Les Miles for world hunger and give him and IQ of a sack of hammers....While that may be somewhat true just always remember the pointspread and go from there. We are here to be objective and not wave pom poms.

mega

manutd

** final note on LSU game for now **

Dan Mullen is a HC we do not like betting against so that is just one reason why you may wanna play Miss St - We think wk 2 may not be the time but later in the yr - .....He has never gone worse than 6-7 ATS in a season and has NEVER had an ATS losing season in conference in 6 yrs.....Many people will not care about that - but we love to see ATS consistency over a 5+ yr time period to us it shows us that his teams often play better than we think they will.

you do a very impressive job of staying selective  always good to listen to your gut buddy GL this wk

Miami Florida 17.5 FAU

Megalocks line 14

See a bit of potential value on the doggie in this one but we think we are gonna take a pass after considering both sides.....Miami looked pretty good against something called a Bethune Cookman winning 45-cack....and they also showed some improvement on D last yr under the radar allowing 330/game and 3.6/rush - I know that is not great but relatively speaking it appears they may be on the right track....We do worry a tiny bit however - bigger fish to fry big game at home vs Nebraska next wk with revenge may or may not mean anything but will never play a big fav wk before a bigger tilt unless special circumstances exist.....FAU took MEGALOCKS to a federal-pound-me-in-the-azz prison last wk  covering against Tulsa in a wacky OT tilt....Now what does concern us is FAU was +4 in turnovers and gave up over 400 yds passing and 4 rushing TDs....Thankfully for them Tulsa could not find a way to beat them by more than 3 so full marks for FAU to scrape out yet another dog cover.....Now when we look to play DD dogs we almost always want there to be the possibility of making the other team punt and Miami while no Auburn or Oregon - should be able to run for 250 and pass for well over 250 without too much trouble and just no idea how good their D is yet but FAU probably gonna find it tougher sledding than vs Tulsa.

Summary. Gonna pass on this one gut tells us Miami wins by 3 TD but you just never know 17.5 is quite a bit to lay with Neb on deck and a scrappy FAU team that may deal out some sweet backdoor action

mega

whodey

bizz - ya I hear ya. So early just not much to go on so this one is a bit of a risk and the QB edge has to go to Miss St....I am banking on LSU doing more to support their QB then the supplementary parts on the Miss St offense not to mention their D.

Utah 13 Utah St

Megalocks line 14

Always great to see an early Utah St injury report without 5 QBs listed on it....You know - QB1 "doubtful - brain" QB2 - "out - shark bite tore off leg"...etc...They played 4 QBs last yr and their D was lights out again I mean how long until we really give these guys credit on D last 3 yrs gave up 15.4 17.1 19.7 I know they don't play a killer sched but just love how scrappy they are....Now last wk Chucky was brutal again at QB16-33 for 110 and an int....for the non-math inclined that is a brutal YPA of 3.3 but somehow they used a late punt return TD to win outright vs S Utah as 30+ point favs 12-9.....Not sure how they are gonna move the ball on Utah to be honest but not crazy about laying 2 TDs.....I mean they are probably gonna be lucky to get 13-14 pts.....Utah was outgained and won (sound familiar?) vs Michigan and they will probably do what Utah does and win a bunch of games this yr.....Think that their experienced O and solid F7 will have a fairly easy go of it.

Summary. No lean on side - Utah St finds a way to get 13-14 which is not impossible they might just cover....Gonna look hard at an under play of some kind but thinking it comes out really low so doubt we will have an action on this one.

mega

update on Utah St QBs

QB3 - "Doubtful - crushed by vending machine"

get that cash this week buddy......with you on the hat....BOL this week mega (and staff)

Love the LSU play! Really licking my chops on LA Tech too.

Looking forward to the Crack Pipe This year!!!

thx guys

cooler - I know it sounds sucky - but I would not play it now at -4. I would wait now for it to come back down (?) or wait for the team total LSU over or MSU under depending on what you can get. Highest I would go is -3 -125 GL !

QB - sadly I watched almost every snap of the UCF game - a DOCUMENTED 422385823490582340 star winner and think I have a good feel for them again this yr...let me check that one out in my next batch of games

temple - MEGALOCKS - "We can't shut our pie holes when discussing NCAA football"