NCAA wk 2

thanks everyone  

tideman - welcome back good to see you around

Nebraska 27 S Alabama (54)

Megalocks line -24

Hard to get a handle on this one....Nebraska off a Hail Mary loss with Miami Fla on deck - normally would be an auto fade but S Alabama a complete mystery to us - returning 5 starters - probably down to THREE RS for this game  and while 11 year senior Cody Clements looked ok last wk and they got a lot of offseason transfers - some from UAB....hard to know how good or bad SA will be....A lot of questions about Neb including their D and like we said the situation.

Summary. No leanage. Gun to the head win the bet or leave Covers forever - actually do not hate S Ala or SA team total over if less than 14 but would not be insane enough to try it - kinda like our UTSA quasi recommendation last wk

mega

Wisconsin 32 Miami Ohio (52)

Megalocks line -30

On the one hand your could argue Wisconsin ready to pound somebody into the ground - and then go to work on them - but they are coming off a physical game vs Alabama - not sure of status of RB Clement or sutd SS Caputo....Think they may sleepwalk thru this one even with another creampuff on deck....Problem is Miami ohio is pure filth....and to quote our notes in the Steele mag from the summer vacation in NC - "TURDS"....Mind you Miami does start QB Drew "Pornstar" Cummer who looked ok last wk and if they somehow get 10-14 maybe it is a cover indeed - Wisc does not feel like the killing and crushing machine from yrs past.......Fun note - Miami Oh 5-1L6 as road dogs covered as biggie size ones LY vS Marshall and Cincy.....Do have big Victory Bell game with Cincy next wk so if it gets out of hand early we see them just wanting to get it over with.

Summary - as you can tell WTF. A little intruiged to play the dog but this could be a Florida/NM St situation where dog has no motivation.

mega

Iowa 3.5 Iowa St (50.5)

Megalocks line -4

Iowa may be sneaky good this yr like NW potentially like the look of that D esp the secondary and last wk got some decent QB play in warmup game and new RB got well over 100Y rushing....Held opp to 231Y offense....Obviously do not want to get carried away but this looks more like the typical Iowa team and not the one that gave up over 25 pts/game LY and has been getting all their RBs injured.....Feel like this may be a nice ATS team BUT BUT BUT need to see them play Iowa St then Pitt before making judgement....and Iowa St has beat them 3L4 years and probably the only reason their HC still has a job not much improvement in fact last 2 yrs total of 5 wins WTF but as long as they beat Iowa they are probably happy just tough to compete in the big12 nowadays.

Here is the thing. We are leaning strongly to some kind of iowa/under play. Iowa St had trouble running the ball (AGAIN) last wk and gave up 4 sacks. Uh oh. They could not run last yr vs iowa even tho they won....With Iowa's very good DBs and how erratic Richardson looked at QB last wk - do not see Iowa St doing much of anything consistently on offense......MEGALOCKS tidbit courtesy of staff member JOHN COCKTOASTIN - last wk Iowa St got 31 points ...good ? Well they had 193 punt return yards - a punt return TD - and they started 7 drives inside Northern Iowa territory....Not sure they are gonna score much.

Summary - strong lean on some kind of Iowa/Under/TT under play just need to figure it out. This game is usually close and iowa always bones you when you least expect it so think the total is the way to play it.

mega

Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

Oregon gets shutout!!!

well looks like Covers consensus is that Michigan St D is like the 85 Bears but with a better pass rush

summary so far

LSU -3 -115

FIU/Indiana over 55

leans

iowa or iowa under or iowa st TT under not sure yet

Quote Originally Posted by holder_account:

Loving the write ups, Mega.  Gave me a couple of winners last week.  Glad to see that we agree on some picks this week.  

thx buddy let's try and do it again - never easy

official play

Iowa St TT under 21.5

I am on Miss St +5.5. Let's hope we middle. Good luck to you.

thx guys  hopefully iowa plays some solid D. GL !!

Minnesota 6 Colorado St (55)

Megalocks line -6

Tough one to call for us - although we do see the merit in taking the dog here....Minn off a tough emotional opener vs TCU and now travel to face a lesser opponent....Col St looked good in the opener but before we go all nuts - the team they beat Sav St is now something like 4-54 SU last 58like FOR REAL, DUDE....but nonetheless it was a nice tuneup - new HC - they look pretty solid all around.....Thinking about Minny - we avoided the TCU game last wk as you know b/c THEY ARE GONNA KILL EM GUY did have some valid points with TCU ....BUT - like we said - you cannot overlook facts...Minnesota ended last yr very strong vs Ohio St Neb Wisc and Mizz....now they were on 11-3 SU run at home before last wk - not as great on the road but overall defense travels and Kill is a great ATS money making machine.

Summary - no lean at this number.... Col St is for jacked up degenerates who crave action. Would want 7 pts tho.

mega

up next  SEC

Georgia 21 Vandy (50)

Megalocks line 18

Line has found its way up to the 3-TD level....Ga looked good wk 1 but they do have SCar on deck for potential lookahead spot but not so sure that exists here given that Vandy has played them tough a couple of times recently at home although not so much at Georgia....Vandy had a disaster at QB last yr lost track of how many qBs they used was at least 4 but look more settled this yr and return 9 starters on a D that held WK to under 300YLW...Yes we understand how bad their offense is but not going to lay 21 here.

summary - no leanage. Ga TT under 35.5 would be a horrible play but we will leave the SEC experts to play this one.

mega

Ole Miss 30 Fresno (55)

Megalocks line -28

You guys know how much we love underdogs but could not justify any reason here other than 30 points seems quasi-fair....Ole Miss put up over 70 last wk against Creampuff St and not sure Fresno is going to put up any resistance....They are working in new QBs and do not have much on offense other than one very good RB....D will be its usual somewhat crappy self we think but too early to tell...Ole Miss can name the score - Bama on deck? Lookahead wont matter if Fresno is as bad as we think.

Summary. Would have loved to get the line earlier can't take it at 30+ but it does smell like a winner. Won't officially add to card but do lean Ole Miss. Prob TT Ole Miss over is better.

mega

funny you should mention that

yesterday Sports Interaction had 23.5 and B365 had 21.5....I posted the 21.5 figuring most guys could at least get that.

Truthfully - you only lose 22 and 23 which are not key numbers but I am still a little steamed about the iowa st STEAM that is causing their TT to rise - Iowa St -3 now almost everywhere.......Reminds me a bit of how the Tulsa line kept going down.....a 2349875234907 star MEGALOCKS loser

GL buddy !