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NCAA wk 3

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Posted: #101
Quote Originally Posted by Badger66:

GL Mega - very much like Ohhhh Domino     (Old Dominion) - keep an eye on the Huskers this week - they will be fade material later in the year, but this week, believe they take it to Fresno State - wake up call last week - they better wake up - traveling out to watch them play and take a mini-vacation - they are hurt with injuries that will catch up to them down the road. 
Know any good places in Fresno????  Always like your insight - GL Again!!!

 I see u are making a road trip to Fresno. Have fun dude. Been to Cali many times never Fresno. Have not looked at ODU game yet agree leaning Huskers this wk GL 

 
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Posted: #102
I am surprise you have not looked at the Virgina/Louisville game MEGALOCKS.  Liking Virgina quite a bit in this game. Virgina is a solid team, good fundamentals, and plays defense.
SNITCHES end up being bitches, or end up with stitches, and in ditches! #REALITY
 
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Posted: #103
more Veal Licata
 
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Posted: #104
Motowner ! Another helping pls !

Urban. I do like VA. On Sunday it was so crazy lines moving all over I literally missed Va. +7.5 by a minute. I see 6.5 at all my 6 shops waiting for 7. Agree with your line of thinking. GL !
 
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Posted: #105
Interested to see your right up on the Idaho game. idaho is one of my stronger plays this wk, gottem at -2.5.  This team got a good infusion of Juco talent playing this year and their qb situation is much improved over last year.  Paul Petrino has got himself a team headed in the right direction, although I must admit thats not really saying garbage after the last few years in moscaw.  
 
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Posted: #106

thanks for the time you put in for us degenerates

 
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Posted: #107
Definitely megalocks. I like your attention to detail. I'll keep reading and share anything I can from my hometown, louisville, perspective.
 
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Posted: #108
GL big fella
 
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Posted: #109
I like UCLA...but man they look so overrated....I can't trust them on the road against anyone.....any input much appreciated.....
 
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Posted: #110
Mega
 
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Posted: #111
thx guys 

lmb4321 - gonna stay clear of the ucla game b/c like you said not sure if i overrated ucla - also do not think texas is that bad i like their d - if you like ucla i think by far the safest play is texas TT under GL

BB2001 - C A R D S CARDS  Remember fondly the Orange Bowl vs Wake Forest - had front row tix in end zone with CARDS crazies - Petrino's last game during that tour of duty - 12-1 solid - GL

ceveche - like idaho as well -  just thought total was a better play - writeup in a bit - GL 
 
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Posted: #112
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

ADDING

Idaho W Michigan over 59.5

Writeup tomorrow am


Lean to Idaho SU in this one but think the total might be the way to go.....WM played Purdue and they both went up and down the field in a 43-34 game...Terrell looks better at QB (remember the Van Tuggernuts era?) ...both teams had over 400Y....Purdue went a month last yr without running a play in the red zone and got 43 on WM.....WM gave up 35/g last yr cant believe that will change this yr - have some nice looking young speed at rb and wr....Idaho lost very late 38-31 at ULM - and ULM D is (in our opinion) actually not horrible - certainly better than WM....Teams put up almost 1000Y and 70 points...both QBs were good - Even the human statue - 18th yr senior P Thomas for ULM threw for 384 against the idaho D - a D that gave up 46 pts a game LY - yes they are JUCO-INFUSED this yr - but have to believe this will be an up tempo game with comical tackling.....GL


 
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Posted: #113
Michigan 30 Miami Oh (53)

The curse of Notre Dame continues this wk - former ND staff member Chuck Martin brings in Miami Ohio who actually did not suck wk 1 vs Marshall - got down 28-3 then cut the lead to 35-27....Also had 445Y last wk but somehow only scored 10 pts vs E Kentucky - 6 turnovers did them in and they lost by 7......Michigan D gave up less than 300Y both games - not sure how they react in this one after getting smoked last wk - utah on deck.....We are questioning our mental health as we lean strongly to miami ohio but realistically - too hard to predict this one with numbers b/c both teams played one ok game and one stinker.....Very very wide possible set of score outcomes in this one......as a result have to pass....regardless of score keep eye on M Oh later in yr for some tasty covers as big dogs they look more legit this yr  dont see the 2-9L11 ATS run as road dogs continuing as it looks like their spreads will be inflated until they cover a couple...GL
 
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Posted: #114
 
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Iowa 10 Iowa St (49)

We usually play the game under every year - just not sure about this yr....Yes the Iowa D looks ok so far - but Iowa St has given up 66 pts in 2 games and are coming off blowing a big lead in a conference game??? Not sure where their heads are at - and Iowa - well they were life and death the beat Ball St even tho they significantly outgained them....We have the line at -10.....gonna pass on this one

T Tech 1 Ark (63)
Line starting to drop....Like we said earlier in the thread - really like Arky but need to see them play a full game against a decent team - this qualifies - before we get too crazy about betting them again.....TT looked less than impressive vs C Ark and UTEP....really lean Ark but we have the line essentially where it is....total looks about right...final thought - while we read a lot about TTech at home - fact is - it is a tough place to play but the stats ATS do not really back that up since Leach....6-10 ATS as HF....4-3 ATS as home dog.....14-10SU L4Y which does not really wow us and KK may have a hot azz to some but as far as backing them ATS in this spot????? strong lean Ark gonna pass tho just dont have enough intel to make a bet

Miami 16.5 Ark St
Have the line at 17.....Not enough to go on yet as far as Miami QB play...Ark St played well in a tough place last wk and just seem to keep rolling along despite having a new HC every 11 months. Gonna pass.....almost never bet Canes games b/c that is for whom we cheer the loudest.....

 
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Posted: #116
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

Iowa 10 Iowa St (49)

We usually play the game under every year - just not sure about this yr....Yes the Iowa D looks ok so far - but Iowa St has given up 66 pts in 2 games and are coming off blowing a big lead in a conference game??? Not sure where their heads are at - and Iowa - well they were life and death the beat Ball St even tho they significantly outgained them....We have the line at -10.....gonna pass on this one



T Tech 1 Ark (63)
Line starting to drop....Like we said earlier in the thread - really like Arky but need to see them play a full game against a decent team - this qualifies - before we get too crazy about betting them again.....TT looked less than impressive vs C Ark and UTEP....really lean Ark but we have the line essentially where it is....total looks about right...final thought - while we read a lot about TTech at home - fact is - it is a tough place to play but the stats ATS do not really back that up since Leach....6-10 ATS as HF....4-3 ATS as home dog.....14-10SU L4Y which does not really wow us and KK may have a hot azz to some but as far as backing them ATS in this spot????? strong lean Ark gonna pass tho just dont have enough intel to make a bet

Miami 16.5 Ark St
Have the line at 17.....Not enough to go on yet as far as Miami QB play...Ark St played well in a tough place last wk and just seem to keep rolling along despite having a new HC every 11 months. Gonna pass.....almost never bet Canes games b/c that is for whom we cheer the loudest.....


thinking the under in the Iowa Iowa state game looks really good
 
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Posted: #117
'while we read a lot about TTech at home - fact is - it is a tough place to play but the stats ATS do not really back that up since Leach....6-10 ATS as HF....4-3 ATS as home dog.....14-10SU L4Y which does not really wow us'

They've nullified that advantage with huge mistakes on offense, and this isn't a night game, so I doubt it will be too rowdy.  I really like ARK here.

Each offense is total kryptonite to the the other team's D.  On paper, this should end up being a close, high-scoring game.  The problem is, the Tech offense commits drive-killing penalty after drive-killing penalty and Davis Webb throws gift-wrapped interceptions 1-2 times per game.  TT was last in the big 12 in turnover margin last year, and they forced zero turnovers against CArk and UTEP.  I'd love to see Tech pull this one out, but I think Arkansas is a pretty strong play here.

Sorry to beat a dead horse...  Love the write-ups and hope I'm wrong on this one...
 
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Posted: #118
Mega how you feel about the Under on the Houston/BYU game at 62?
 
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Posted: #119
Sooner. Agree 

TTU - the more I look at that TT game the more puzzled I get GL 

Tyler. I had the number at 59/60 so too close to make a bet. Sorry. GL !
 
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Posted: #120
locks my man bol
Dilaudid8
 
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Posted: #121
 
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Posted: #122
guys 

good start with LTech

owe you boys a few more writeups 


TCU 15 Minny (49)
Books looking for a 32-17 type game....Our initial lean was to the under but TCU is one of those teams still living off reputation on D when it comes to ATS and Totals....Their D is not the 2009/2010 version - or maybe they are??? ....Just have to wait and see - Looks like their offense can be extra spicy this yr - and if that is the case - they could score 40 themselves as TCU a tough place to play and minny was outgained both games  just do not turn the ball over and dont take many penalties - Run focused team gonna have trouble doing that vs TCU - at least on paper......hmmm....Pretty strong lean to TCU.....gun to the head best play may be Minn TT under but like we said - just gotta watch this wk ....Yes they were injured LY but last 3 yrs 21 23 25 pts given up/game....not impossible minny could get to 17...TCU 8-16 ATS last 2 Y and 4-9L13 ATS as home chalk...PASS 
 
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Posted: #123
Ole Miss 27 ULL (56.5)

Very close to taking the points - we have the fair line closer to 20/21....However - we have to always accept and respect AWESOME D....every yr there are 3-5 teams that we look at where - sure the spread is inflated - but their D is always capable of pitching a shutout or something close to that making a cover dicey....Not sure what to make of ULL but like we said in our LT writeup - we suspected LT was good b/c to go on the road and beat a quality team like that says something - our MEGALOCKS RESEARCH ASSOCIATES could not find anything in ULL internet land to suggest that there is anything rotten going on....Just seems like they may have gotten a bit stale in terms of offense/coaching/QB good but not progressing...etc.....We really think this one is gonna be a tough one for Ole Miss to name their score but just cant pull the trigger based on that Ole Miss D - 86-16 in two weeks....QB completing 72%....and the D is playing with pride dont think they will give up garbage points....Total a mystery to us......Lean ULL but unless this bad boy gets over 28 will not revisit
 
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Posted: #124
N Dame 27.5 Purdue (57)
Another line that looks inflated to us - and yes - the game is at a neutral site so to say ND is 4 TD better at a neutral site in a rivalry (minor - but still....) game....hmmmm......I mean Purdue is pure filth....but 4 TD ?? we have it at 21/22....We remember last yr thinking the same thing and purdue played ok at home losing 31-24.....yr before at ND 2017 loss mind you purdue was not bad that yr....ND just looks like they are totally clicking right now so wont stand in front of the train - gun to the head ND TT under or Purdue if you can get 28......pass for now. 
 
 
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Posted: #125
GL this week Bud 
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