NCAA wk 6

Freaks  Sickos  Told-Ya-So Guy  Crowd-Will-Be-Rocking-Guy

Another good week in the thread. Thanks so much to everyone for making it a great resource for people to read about the games and the related betting strategies.  Some good intel was provided by many contributors last week.

5/5 winning weeks. 3-0 CRACK PIPE SPECIALS....Worst week was 3-2. Been a good start but the last two Octobers have been very up and down for us so we will do our best to stay consistent.

Nothing matters except for the picks / analysis that comes next.

Best of luck to everyone this week.

Early lines are starting to come up - Will hopefully release an EARLY TASTER  or two but if the openers are as sharp as last week it may be a BARREN WASTELAND until later in the week.

Mega

TULSA -7

MIAMI FLA +8.5

Lucas OUT 

Not so pretty either for ULM across the board injury wise.

Will write-up the game later. GL

TULSA -7

Megalocks line 10

Sagarin 9.5

First of all - our hearts go out to the family and friends of the ULM QB that died on the weekend. Daniel Fitzwater was only 20.

ULM has really been struggling this year and it all starts with the offensive line that was potentially the worst in all of FBS last yr - 70 yds rushing/game and gave up 44 sacks....This year their offense is ranked #121 and rushing #125 despite some acceptable QB play. Mind you from what we read - most of the completed passes are sideways or backwards. They are now without their #1 receiver R Seaser who has having an excellent season 23 catches - next guy has 11 - NOBODY ELSE on the team has more than 4 receptions....They have played a tough schedule for sure but have not looked competitive - the D is always giving a full effort but only so much you can do when you are on the field so long....Special teams and penalties are a big problem too.....So when you play a team like Tulsa - who has also played a decent schedule - most recently Sooners (went toe to toe most of the game) and Houston (a really sneaky good team) who does have a rotten defense - but can run the football and MATRICULATE and score points - you better be able to keep pace just see no way ULM can do that....Tulsa without their #2 WR in stats but probably most electric player with a knee injury - still lots of weapons in that system to score some points. You guys know we do not play favorites much but this one seems like a decent enough play had to take a shot.

Both teams are in "sandwich spots" technically as both teams have conference games up next and joking aside those are meaningful. Don't think ULM would put up much of a fight if they get down early and who can blame them?

GL mega

GL - mega

chad77  You do not get to hang out with supermodels on a yacht without great calls like Alabama....Glad you were on it - love your Bama intel keep it coming.

bizzo - good to hear you like the Canes Did not get the best line but I was willing to take +7.5 so we have to suck it up. GL !

ikillbookie

JVH - I would play up to -9.5. only IF you really like Tulsa take -10 but would only go half size wager at that number. No higher than -10. GL !

ncdcbag  congrats on your Bama hit....That is exactly what we want to do - Provide some objective research and let people make their own calls if they agree. Well done.

MIAMI FLA +8.5

Megalocks line 7

Sagarin 12

Great grab on the Tulsa game - but did not get as lucky on this game....We have done a great job of beating the closing line this year even with mid-week picks just didn't get the job done this time although there is still time.

First of all. We bet one Canes game a year at most. Usually bet against them at least once/year so we try and stay objective. We know lots of people hate this team and if you think they stink and are gonna get killed - totally get that - ....Just keep in mind we are not saying Miami wins SU. We are catching more than a TD.

This time we can start with the mostly meaningless trends - per Steele mag - and most of you are aware - this is a big rivalry game particularly helpful in recruiting - and 11 L 14 meetings have been decided by a TD or less. 7 of the last 9 games have been won by the road team. We will say that in recent history - all that has meant is Fla St romps at Miami - Miami plays better on the road......So given the the way the teams are playing right now - and the talent on the field - we argue that this game is more likely than not going to follow the pattern of a close game with Florida St probably winning. Jimbo > Golden. Duh.

Florida St? Well let's assume Cook plays at RB. Jimbo has a presser today - already said it was not as bad as he thought - the hammy should be fine but I guess you never know. But looking at the last 3 Fla St games - sluggish against S Florida.....Only one offensive TD vs BC....Outgained by Wake and only had 329Y including one play of 94 yards. D is playing great - but the offenses of SF, BC, Wake are not Miami's calibre. Fla St also only ranked 7th in the SEC in sacks/game and 9th in TFL/game....not as PENETRATING as normal - and the OL has had some issues - inconsistent but lots of new faces - get the odd Cook big hitter but also 10th in the ACC in sacks allowed. Any way you cut it - their offense is going to make some plays but also make some mistakes and have some 3 and outs. No receivers with over 150Y receiving yet for Fla St either.

Miami? Well a couple of tune-ups then 3 good Q vs Nebraska - and almost puked it away....Could not stop Cincy with their DBs thin in the first half due to suspension - then held a very very good Cincy offense to just 7 points in the 2nd half. Had to also believe that was a lookahead spot similar to Fla St vs Wake. Miami very balanced on offense and the D is down a notch from Fla St but they have been tested by two really good QBs and offenses last 2 games. Think this matchup is more favorable.

Both teams have done well in the turnover margin department. Miami has been horrible on 3rd down. We think Miami covers this one as long as they are not -2 or worse in turnover margin. Right now the teams seem pretty close....But we know full well by the end of the year that Florida St will get better and Miami will likely get worse. Just reality. For now - think Miami gets this game at the right time.

GL - mega