NCAAF Tuesday Info

Buffalo (4-7) @ Ball State (5-6)
— Bulls gave up 209+ RY in eight of ten I-A games.
— Buffalo allowed 44.7 ppg in its last three games.
— Bulls are 2-5 in MAC, losing by 7-10-12-27-6 points.
— Buffalo has 4 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
— Bulls have only 18 returning starts on offensive line.
— Buffalo has a junior QB with 25 starts.
— Last three years, Bulls are 0-4 ATS as road underdogs.
— Last three Buffalo games went over the total. 

— Ball lost three of last four games, needs win to be bowl eligible.
— Last seven games, Cardinals are +10 in turnovers. 
— Last three games, Cardinals allowed 500 ypg. 
— Cardinals have 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Ball has 97 returning starts on offensive line.
— Ball’s senior QB has 37 career starts.  
— Cardinals are 2-7 ATS last nine games as home favorites.
— Under is 6-2 in last eight Ball State games.

— Ball State won eight of last ten series games.
— Cardinals covered three of last four meetings played here.
— Three of last four series games went over.

Western Michigan (6-5) @ Northern Illinois (8-3)
— WMU lost three of last four games, after a 5-2 start.
— Broncos gave up 35.7 ppg in their last six games.
— Last six games, WMU is minus-10 in turnovers.
— You’re reading armadillosports.com
— Broncos have 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— WMU has 75 returning starts on offensive line.
— WMU’s soph QB has 21 career starts.  
— Broncos are 3-8-2 ATS last 13 games as road favorites.
— Four of last six WMU games went over the total.

— NIU won seven of its last eight games (6-2 ATS).
— Huskies have four wins by 1 or 2 points.
— Huskies gave up 50-63-52 points in their three losses.
— Huskies have nine starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— NIU has 59 returning starts on offensive line.
— NIU’s junior QB has 20 career starts (9 @ Michigan St).  
— Huskies are 3-5 ATS last eight games as home underdogs.
— Four of last five NIU games went over the total.

— Home side won last six series games.
— Broncos are 2-10 ATS in last dozen trips to DeKalb.
— Under is 6-2 in last eight meetings.

This game reminds me of the NFL, at least in the past, when we've had one team wrap up a spot in the playoffs, and their seeding cannot be up or down. So perhaps they rest some key players in the final game, or maybe don't play as hard with nothing really to play for. I am not saying Northern Illinois is going to rest key personnel for the entire game, or even at all, but I am not think they're going to be playing with the same kind of desperation we've seen the past two weeks with the goal of winning the West Division. They wrapped up the division title in Buffalo with an overtime win, and they cannot lose their spot in the MAC Championship Game by losing here.

Western Michigan is angry after losing to their rivals at Eastern Michigan, and now have to finish on the road against another tough foe. The Broncos have something to prove to bowl committees, as well as fans, alumni, and more importantly, to each other. And looking at the numbers, it's rather surprising that NIU has allowed more points than they have scored this season, while Western has scored more than they have allowed.

Western is looking to finish up strong, while NIU is looking to just stay healthy. I think the Broncos have a big advantage. W.Mich -160 ML / N.ILL +3.5 / UN 63 /By D.dobish

• Western Michigan is 0-4 ATS in the past four games overall.
• Western Michigan is 1-4-1 ATS in the past six road games.
• Northern Illinois is 3-1-1 ATS in the past five home games.
• Northern Illinois is 6-2 ATS in the past eight games overall.
• The UNDER is 5-1 in Western Michigan's past six on the road.
• The OVER is 4-1 in Northern Illinois' past five overall.
• The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the past five meetings.
• The UNDER is 7-2 in the past nine meetings at NIU.

We've had plenty of UNDER results lately for Ball State, but Buffalo has hit the OVER in three in a row. And OVER is the trend when these teams get together, too, cashing in each of the past five meetings in Muncie. The underdog is a perfect 6-0 ATS in the previous six meetings, so that bodes well for the Bulls, too.

Buffalo is catching nearly a touchdown in this one, as they look to keep it close and perhaps spoil the season of Ball State and keep the Cardinals from going to a bowl. This is basically Buffalo's bowl game now. The strength of the Bulls is running the football, and the Cardinals aren't terribly good at stopping the run. This is going to be a very close game, and if Ball State wins, it's going to be by the slimmest of margins.Ball St 34-30 / Buff +6.5 / OV 58.5 /By D.Dobish

• Buffalo is 1-6-1 ATS in the past eight games overall.
• Ball State is 0-4 ATS in the past four games overall.
• The OVER is 13-5 in Buffalo's past 18 MAC games.
• The UNDER is 7-0 in Ball State's past seven home games.
• The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the past six in this series.
• The OVER is 5-0 in the past five meetings at Ball State.

The Broncos are just 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 games in DeKalb and are 5-15-1 against the number in their last 21 games versus the Huskies overall, while the underdog has cashed in five straight meetings between these two teams. The Broncos are also just 1-4-1 against the spread in their last six road games, are winless against the number in their last four games overall and are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as a favorite. The Huskies, meanwhile, have covered in six of their last eight games overall. N.ll +3.5 /A.Rome

Ball State 31, Buffalo 27

Peg these MAC crossover foes as being very even. Buffalo has a couple of shaky-defense games up close in the rearview mirror, with contests allowing 56 and 45 points against Bowling Green and Miami, respectively, taking place within the last month. However, UB had a big turnover negative in those efforts.

On a chilly night with a slight breeze, figure the Bulls’ ground game (29th) against the Cardinals’ run defense (95th) as being key in a close game. BACK BUFFALO (+190). By S.Snow

The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings between Buffalo and Ball State.

These programs last met in the 2020 MAC Championship Game which the Cardinals won 38-28. UB outgained BSU by 70 yards, but the Bulls were hampered by going 4-for-16 on third and fourth downs and by a Ball State defensive score.

The Bulls are seeking revenge and are worthy of attention at this number. BACK BUFFALO +6.5 (-108).

There are plenty of deficiencies on both sides of the ball here … and with both teams. Too much gray area: PASS.

By S.Snow

Agree

“The huskies have four wins of 1 or 2 points.” 

That is amazing, the cardiac kids have returned. I live in Illinois so I can’t bet this game but if I could I would bet a fun same game parlay. Don’t get in the habit of betting those, books love them for good reason, extra juice, but anyway I’d bet NIU ML +160 with the over -110. That’s nearly 4 to 1 bet. 

BALL ST   -6.5

Bulls are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.

Bulls are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog.

Bulls have lost 3 straight

The Ball State Cardinals have a lot more to fight for as they have a chance to become bowl eligible and will be playing their final home game for their seniors. 

Buffalo down to their backup QB, Ball State has an advantage behind Drew Plitt, a 6'2 senior quarterback here. 

Ball State 34, Buffalo 24 / By DMFooy