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NCAAF WEEK 7 Tico Joe's Statistical ATS Week #2

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Posted: #26
semi grunching but does it really matter if his model is assigning a way too high probability on his plays....

all i care about is that his model really like these games and whether his model has any predictive value.... and i appreciate him sharing with us.
 
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Posted: #27

   Buffalo, No Illinois, and ASU parlay

 
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Posted: #28
GL Tico , system looks good 
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by ticojoe:

Update:

THURSDAY

Road - Rutgers +18.5 ATS 67%

FRIDAY

Home - Cincinnati -21 ATS 75%

SATURDAY GAMES

Road - Buffalo -12.5 ATS 95%

Home - Arizona State -25 ATS 91%

Home - Northern Illinois -21.5 ATS 90%

Home - UCLA -24.5 ATS 90%

Road - Alabama -27 ATS 88%

Road - Stanford -9.5 ATS 83%

Home - Wyoming -15.5 ATS  ATS 75%

Road - Northwestern +10.5 ATS 73%

Road - Bowling Green +10.5 ATS 70%

Road - Oregon -13.5 ATS 66%

I am strictly running the numbers and data on teams that have a high probability of covering the spread and that is all I will be listing. I appreciate all the comments even the negative ones as everyone has a point of view. I am not trying to win any contest or claim to be anything special just want people to CRUSH the BOOK. Play them, don't play them, but if you do play, always bet what you can afford.

NORTH TEXAS and GEORGIA have been removed do a mistake I made on my calculations. They still can cover if you bet them, but my high probability is not so high after re-running the data. I still had them both in the low 60% range.

I feel these are twelve highly probable games that can cover ATS for WEEK 7. 

  crushmybookie dot com

 

There is one problem with your Cinci pick. I do not think you are taking into account Tuberville's ability to completely mismanage a game a screw a team up

 
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Posted: #30
 
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Posted: #31
Update:

THURSDAY

Road - Rutgers +18.5 ATS 67% 

FRIDAY

Home - Cincinnati -21 ATS 75%

SATURDAY GAMES

Road - Buffalo -12.5 ATS 95%

Home - Arizona State -25 ATS 91%

Home - Northern Illinois -21.5 ATS 90%

Home - UCLA -24.5 ATS 90%

Road - Alabama -27 ATS 88%

Road - Stanford -9.5 ATS 83%

Home - Wyoming -15.5 ATS  ATS 75%

Road - Northwestern +10.5 ATS 73%

Road - Bowling Green +10.5 ATS 70%

Road - Oregon -13.5 ATS 66%

Home - Ohio -17.5 ATS 89% added 10/10

Home - Houston -9.5 ATS 91% added 10/10

Added two more gems that will come in tomorrow......
Pura Vida
 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by jpurdy2:

whatever you do is working, your making money, its respectable, only pick I'd disagree with is Air Force(although you said possible play), AF literally has the worse defense in the country, ranked dead last in scoring defense and SDSU appears to have found rhythm on offense the past three weeks

side note:  Air Forces last ten games ATS they are 2-8

BOL     

I am glad you wrote this as I ended up going the other way and taking San Diego along with USC on a 2-Team Parlay for $100. Just waiting for USC to close out this game.....

I ran some more numbers and added two more games that should cover on Saturday (Ohio and Houston)
Pura Vida
 
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Posted: #33
Ohio U... another play that I am on... don't know what your system is, but it sure seems to come up with a lot of the same plays as me!

 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by Ice4Blood:

Ohio U... another play that I am on... don't know what your system is, but it sure seems to come up with a lot of the same plays as me!


I only pick games that have high probability of covering against the spread.  You should post your plays in advance, no need to keep all that information to yourself.

Anyway, even though I didn't post them, I hit all three college games tonight on a parlay just waiting for USC to come in....
Pura Vida
 
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Posted: #35
UPDATED CARD:

THURSDAY

Road - Rutgers +18.5 ATS 67% 

FRIDAY

Home - Cincinnati -21 ATS 75%

SATURDAY GAMES

Road - Buffalo -12.5 ATS 95%

Home - Arizona State -25 ATS 91%

Home - Northern Illinois -21.5 ATS 90%

Home - UCLA -24.5 ATS 90%

Road - Alabama -27 ATS 88%

Road - Stanford -9.5 ATS 83%

Home - Wyoming -15.5 ATS  ATS 75%

Road - Northwestern +10.5 ATS 73%

Road - Bowling Green +10.5 ATS 70%

Road - Oregon -13.5 ATS 66%

Home - Ohio -17.5 ATS 89% added 10/10

Home - Houston -9.5 ATS 91% added 10/10

Added two more gems that should come in on Saturday.....
Pura Vida
 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by ticojoe:


I only pick games that have high probability of covering against the spread.  You should post your plays in advance, no need to keep all that information to yourself.

I always post my plays when I put the actual bets in... always!
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by ticojoe:

UPDATED CARD:

THURSDAY

Road - Rutgers +18.5 ATS 67% 

FRIDAY

Home - Cincinnati -21 ATS 75%

SATURDAY GAMES

Road - Buffalo -12.5 ATS 95%

Home - Arizona State -25 ATS 91%

Home - Northern Illinois -21.5 ATS 90%

Home - UCLA -24.5 ATS 90%

Road - Alabama -27 ATS 88%

Road - Stanford -9.5 ATS 83%

Home - Wyoming -15.5 ATS  ATS 75%

Road - Northwestern +10.5 ATS 73%

Road - Bowling Green +10.5 ATS 70%

Road - Oregon -13.5 ATS 66%

Home - Ohio -17.5 ATS 89% added 10/10

Home - Houston -9.5 ATS 91% added 10/10

Added two more gems that should come in on Saturday.....

Good stuff Tico, about to add Ohio and Houston to my card
 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by ticojoe:


I am glad you wrote this as I ended up going the other way and taking San Diego along with USC on a 2-Team Parlay for $100. Just waiting for USC to close out this game.....

I ran some more numbers and added two more games that should cover on Saturday (Ohio and Houston)

 

 

Nota problem brother, nice comeback by SDSU and USC almost blew it lol they shoot themselves in the foot by soooo many penalties I hate watching them play

BOL this weekend

I like NIU, Stanford, and Oregon

 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by jpurdy2:

 

 

Nota problem brother, nice comeback by SDSU and USC almost blew it lol they shoot themselves in the foot by soooo many penalties I hate watching them play

BOL this weekend

I like NIU, Stanford, and Oregon


Holy crap I went to bed thinking USC was a done deal..... If I had of lost that game not only my $2500 dollar parlay ticket goes up in smoke but so does a TV through a wall.......

You should add Ohio too.....
Pura Vida
 
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Posted: #40
 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by ticojoe:


Holy crap I went to bed thinking USC was a done deal..... If I had of lost that game not only my $2500 dollar parlay ticket goes up in smoke but so does a TV through a wall.......

You should add Ohio too.....

 

Im definitely going to add Ohio, but yeah that USC game almost took some gambling years off my life lol

Ill post my other plays I like on here later tonight around 6

 
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Posted: #42
UPDATED CARD:

THURSDAY

Road - Rutgers +18.5 ATS 67% 

FRIDAY

Home - Cincinnati -21 ATS 75%

SATURDAY GAMES

Road - Buffalo -12.5 ATS 95%

Home - Arizona State -25 ATS 91%

Home - Northern Illinois -21.5 ATS 90%

Home - UCLA -24.5 ATS 90%

Road - Alabama -27 ATS 88%

Road - Stanford -9.5 ATS 83%

Home - Wyoming -15.5 ATS  ATS 75%

Road - Northwestern +10.5 ATS 73%

Road - Bowling Green +10.5 ATS 70%

Road - Oregon -13.5 ATS 66%

Home - Ohio -17.5 ATS 89% added 10/10

Home - Houston -9.5 ATS 91% added 10/10

Road - Baylor -17.5 ATS 85% added 10/11

Road - Texas A&M -5.5 ATS 85% added 10/11

Home - Maryland -7 ATS 86% added 10/11

I added some more, but want to let everyone know that Bowling Green has me a little concerned. I am still leaving it up but without going into my reasoning just stay off that game.
Pura Vida
 
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Posted: #43
I may disagree with your percentages but by and large I like your card. good luck Tico, and keep on posting your plays.
 
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Posted: #44
nice call on Rutgers...BOL rest of weekend.
 
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Posted: #45
 
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Posted: #46
I have an 19 team card this weekend, here's my picks:

Noon:
Oklahoma
Michigan State
Va Tech
Nebraska
Missouri
TCU
2PM-5PM:
Western Carolina
Colorado State
Florida
Oregon
Baylor
Northern Illinois
Ohio
Rice
Late:
Texas A&M
Stanford
Colorado
Alabama
Boise State

thoughts, comments, roasts are more than welcome
BOL gentleman lets make that "straight cash homie" 
 
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Posted: #47
Seems like most of your ATS losers are in the 70 to 79 % Range .. May be a go against in that range ?? Also , any movement that is more than a point either way , fav or dog , I will throw a few chops on it .. Example .. Like your ATS Buff - 12 1/2 ATS 95% and the line is dropping ?? I will make Buffalo a bigger play , since you have been hitting on your 90% ATS Range and line is going in my favor Buff is now 9 1/2 .. Opposit N ILL line is going up .. Taking Akron .. 
 
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Posted: #48
GL love ya plays 
 
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by Upside:

Seems like most of your ATS losers are in the 70 to 79 % Range .. May be a go against in that range ?? Also , any movement that is more than a point either way , fav or dog , I will throw a few chops on it .. Example .. Like your ATS Buff - 12 1/2 ATS 95% and the line is dropping ?? I will make Buffalo a bigger play , since you have been hitting on your 90% ATS Range and line is going in my favor Buff is now 9 1/2 .. Opposit N ILL line is going up .. Taking Akron .. 
 Decided not to go against the Big lines .. N ILL and  AZ St
 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by Ice4Blood:


Still to this day, the most memorable thing anyone has ever said to me as advice in this game came from this 70 yr old wise guy at the Stardust, ages ago!  He said... "You know what your problem is?  You want to win every game..."



This is so true.  Weird but going 16-18 flat betting doesn't hurt much but losing a "big" play hurts.  Isn't this why people play teasers....(me included)
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