ND vs GA write up.

Happy New Year to all!! Had a good win last night with Penn St for 2 dimes. This game tonight is going to be a slug fest / rock fight. ND is 0 & 3 all time vs GA. Today is a different day though, and I believe ND will get their first win vs GA in this Sugar Bowl. RIP for all those affected in what just happened down there a little while ago. Evil ass should’ve just offed himself. ND was a 1.5 dog last night before I went to bed. I wake up and the heavy hitters slammed ND overnight. ND is only receiving around 27% to 29% handle but, the line flipped the other way. Huge factor in a game like this IMO. GA has Stockton playing QB , we all know that of course. He has very limited experience. He only threw for 71 yards vs TX. ND plays man coverage @ the GA highest rate in the nation, which they rank 94.1 coverage grade in the nation. And ND also can stack the box with 8 or 9 players, which is 4th in the nation if GA wants to play the run game all day long. ND has only given up a measly 11.9% of explosive plays when they have stacked the box. GA does have the 18th best rushing attack, but with ND ‘s heavy box run defense attack, GA will have a tough time running as well. GA averages around 126 yards per game but, they are on 82nd nationally with 4.0 yards per carry. Rylie Mills is out today for ND, who is a stud but, ND have very good upper class man replacements. When I ran my numbers, I have ND winning by 7.915 pts. ND has a weaker SOS , which I don’t like. My numbers give GA the # 1 SOS nationally vs ND’s between 12th & 16th. Now the Under seems like the better play today though. ND is the 109th slowest team in the FBS and GA is the 56th. And with a back up QB the GA coaching staff will try to get the run game going. ND runs the ball @ least 53% of the time. ND’s defense ranks # 1 nationally, where GA ranks around 27th, depending on what data you gather from. ND gives up only 295.3 yards per game, where GA gives up 353.8 yards per game. Even though GA’s defense statistically is not nearly as good, you have to factor in GA’s SOS. In 2024 ND ATS record is 10 - 2 - 1 & GA’s is 4 - 9. Bottom line , this isn’t the same GA team that we’ve become accustomed to seeing, where is ND has gotten a lot better. Leonard is a running QB who grades just okay per PFF but, I think ND will run Love a lot more today than they did last week. I’ve already played the under 45.5 for a dime. If ND goes back to a fav or if they don’t, I will be on ND for a dime as well. My under has been wagered. Will definitely play ND after I watch the line a little bit. GL today to all… 

Thanks for posting I'll be on Notre Dame as well gl2us.

Thanks

 good luck 

I think ND is the right side here w a  short line,  just on the simple fact that UGA doesn't have its starting QB. 

ND is a stout team w a good QB.  

I think in- play is the better play, though.   You can get a sense how efficient UGAs offense can be w its backup QB. 

@Rolexsports

other than disagreeing with Notre Dame's SOS at 12-16, (ESPN has them at #43), I like your breakdown.  Makes sense from your perspective.  GL as one of us will get that W.  

Thanks for the good read . 

NCAAF Forums are toxic AF but the good ones need to be followed. 

BOL today

GL buddy 

Thanks guys GL to all of us who are on ND…  Beerich good to see you though …ND’s SOS could be slightly off but , not what ESPN is stating. 

@Rolexsports

No argument here.  ND has a damn good team.  I’ve seen many diff SOS after my post this am and I see anywhere from 12-43.  Whatever the case, this should be a great game.  Happy new year to you and yours!

Happy New Year Beerich as well… Game postponed. Should favor ND. More disciplined players. Sucks what happened down there. Glad they killed the POS…

Heavy hitters had a full night to re think their bets, and the line has not budged. GA still with more than around 70% of public bets and ND still - 1. ND for another dime - 1 - 105

GL

ND lost their best def player.  They haven’t played anyone either.  Stockton will run around and cfb likes Kirby too much.  By flopping the line they now are getting equal $ on both sides.  When GA starts putting in fresh players in 4th qtr that's when they will pull away.  ND doesn’t have enough to keep up.  

GL RS, I have the final 23-17 or 23-20 right around there. Will probably join you on that under.

GL on your plays & Happy New Year mah man @Rolexsports

Onthereal , I love the under a lil bit more but, I believe ND wins as well. GL

My main man Mac Attack ! Happy New Year bud …. !!!

@Rolexsports

 Great write up. Thanks

No problem CC , good to see you… GL

Great write up - on the other side because of the trenches.  Should be a great game. Think ETN gets loose and that, along with Riley Leonard not being able to throw, is the difference.

Good luck

Thanks BigPell… You could be right, but I always trust in my numbers and gut. ND by @ least 7. 

Good luck WTH your play. Trying to understand your foundation for this statement 

Happy New Year Oldwise.. good to see you man . ND has more senior players that play more minutes than GA. Marcus Freeman will have his team ready to play. This young QB for GA will make some wrong reads today. ND’s secondary is no joke… 

No doubt an inexperienced QB for Georgia is a big question mark - just not sure the postponement gives either team an edge. One could argue Kirby has been there and done that and he is the more seasoned coach to better handle a postponement.

Anyways, best of luck with your play