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Nevada -3

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Posted: #26
Back down to 3.5, BYU wins this game outright
 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by vxkens:

Nevada's first road game of the year and in a huge letdown spot at a tough place to play.  Players doused the coach with Gatorade after last week's win.  Will they take care of business this week?  Nevada has a rep for choking opportunities away.  They are on the cusp of their first top 25 ranking since the 1940's, and I'll bet every one of those players and coaches knows it.

Got to think Vegas knows something here.  Nev likely overvalued after beating a poor Cal team which might finish with a losing record.  BYU undervalued after two embarrassing road losses.  Be careful.


All this guy does is go around the forum and offer fantastic analysis on games. He looks deeper than the surface. No rah rah fan bullshit, ever.

Great poster.


 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by luckylogan:

igot it at -4 but bought the point! it won't matter!!!


Little does luckylogan know he is correct, but completely on the wrong side


 
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Posted: #29

Quote Originally Posted by RJSizzle:



Little does luckylogan know he is correct, but completely on the wrong side


 

 

 
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Posted: #30

one point (BYU is awful this year)

i dont care if its grass or turf, home or away.

Nevada will come to play, there offense is to much for BYU.

the line will be around a TD by game time, then you can bet on BYU and still loose.

BYU will struggle all year,

 

 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by C-C:

one point (BYU is awful this year)

i dont care if its grass or turf, home or away.

Nevada will come to play, there offense is to much for BYU.

the line will be around a TD by game time, then you can bet on BYU and still loose.

BYU will struggle all year,



Umm. line already down to 3 or 3.5 in some places.. not sure it's going to climb back up 4 points.. 
 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by C-C:

the line will be around a TD by game time, then you can bet on BYU and still loose.

BYU will struggle all year,

 


2 Things....

1. Your statement is beyond moronic. I cant work on teeth, so I am not going to start doing dentistry. You cant read lines, dont try to. I bet you had no idea why the line was so low. 

2. Who gives a shit if BYU struggles all year? They are going to win on Saturday. Thats all that matters.



 
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Posted: #33
BYU wins outright....no question on this one
 
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Posted: #34
BYU ML
 
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Posted: #35

Quote Originally Posted by goscots56:

I teach in the public school system, and Covers is blocked, so I couldn't make a post this afternoon.  But, I took Nevada -3 right when the lines came out...texted a few of my buds and told them to jump on it!  (which they didn't listen) and now the line is at -5! I am just wondering how many people actually got the line at -3?   

Afternoon goscots! Several books still have it at 3, and a few 4.5 and some 5?  Do you only use one book? I use two now sometmes three! 5Dimes has some whacked lines sometimes, and I dont understand their philosophy, but a lot of the time it is favoring the "pick", the winner! They are off by sometimes 4 pts? Whats up with that? Anyway, I called to fund an account there and there was some negative caviot that made me decide against it!  What do youthink about the Over 64 ? GL Buddy! PG

 
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Posted: #36
All valid arguments....and I don't want to spend alot of time hashing this game out....as I've got a big write up coming for Thursday night's game.  But I think all of these arguments would be valid.....IF.  There are big if's associated with all of them, and I will get to then in the write up.

One number that makes all of the difference for me.......SIX (6).

In the first 3 games, Nevada has punted a total of 6 times.  4 times in the first game, NONE in the second, and twice last thursday.  BYU has punted 6 times in each of their first three games!

Nevada's offense is efficient....they lead the nation in rushing.....and they don't come off the field easily.  I don't see BYU's young QB leading an offense that hangs with them.

Oh, and can the guy who said Nevada struggles on the road please back that up, as well as how BYU is unbeatable at home!

BOL
 
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Posted: #37
Nevada on the road
2009- 3-3 SU - loses at ND, Colorado State, Boise
2008: 4-2 SU- loses at Missouri, Hawaii
2007: 2-4 SU- loses at Neb, Northwestern, Boise, San Jose St
2006: 3-3 SU - loses at Fresno, Ariz St, Hawaii

BYU at home
2010: 1-0 SU 
2009: 4-2 SU, - loses to FSU and TCU
2008: 6-0 SU
2007: 6-0 SU
 
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Posted: #38

  goscots56, do you have any big plays coming up this weekend?  or are all your plays always the same size bet? 

 

Thanks and good luck

 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by Charlie111:

After their STATEMENT game against Cal, I will not touch Nevada this week.  Even with the extra days for this game, the BYU defense could be tough at home if the Wolves come in off their game a little.  The fact that BYU got smoked in Noles land last week even makes me think BYU will rebound with a better effort.  A solid stay-away game for me.  Good luck to those who play this game. 

BYU got smoked by a noles team that played like shit too...i understand this being a let down game for the pack,,but nevada has alot of seasoned players, i think they can handle this,,,BYU is in a bad state of mind right now

 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by PGram13:

Afternoon goscots! Several books still have it at 3, and a few 4.5 and some 5?  Do you only use one book? I use two now sometmes three! 5Dimes has some whacked lines sometimes, and I dont understand their philosophy, but a lot of the time it is favoring the "pick", the winner! They are off by sometimes 4 pts? Whats up with that? Anyway, I called to fund an account there and there was some negative caviot that made me decide against it!  What do youthink about the Over 64 ? GL Buddy! PG

5dimes lines are off on the covers matchups page sometimes for some reason. Not anything out of oridinary on actual site.

 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by CappingDuck:

5dimes lines are off on the covers matchups page sometimes for some reason. Not anything out of oridinary on actual site.



BYU QB Nelson out for yr.. True frosh heaps now the #1 QB..
 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by SatNightFever05:

Nevada on the road
2009- 3-3 SU - loses at ND, Colorado State, Boise
2008: 4-2 SU- loses at Missouri, Hawaii
2007: 2-4 SU- loses at Neb, Northwestern, Boise, San Jose St
2006: 3-3 SU - loses at Fresno, Ariz St, Hawaii

BYU at home
2010: 1-0 SU 
2009: 4-2 SU, - loses to FSU and TCU
2008: 6-0 SU
2007: 6-0 SU


Notice anything about Nevada's road losses?  Most of them are to BCS teams, and of the 12 road losses you mentioned Nevada was only favored in 3 of those games.

They were 25 point dogs to Boise and lost by 2 (2008) and last year they were in it in the 3rd quarter and still covered.

Lets me just put it this way.....if you guys think there is value in BYU, then play it!  Fade me and make the pick.  Maybe this Nevada game is my 6th loss of the year.....IDK.....but I just don't see the let down that all of you guys are talking about.
 
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Posted: #43
BYU COULDN'T STOP AIR FORCE  ON THE GROUND...THEY GET STEAMROLLED HERE!
 
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Posted: #44

Quote Originally Posted by goscots56:



Notice anything about Nevada's road losses?  Most of them are to BCS teams, and of the 12 road losses you mentioned Nevada was only favored in 3 of those games.

They were 25 point dogs to Boise and lost by 2 (2008) and last year they were in it in the 3rd quarter and still covered.

Lets me just put it this way.....if you guys think there is value in BYU, then play it!  Fade me and make the pick.  Maybe this Nevada game is my 6th loss of the year.....IDK.....but I just don't see the let down that all of you guys are talking about.

 

Nevada it is.  Wolpack smashes them!!  I'll even buy a point so we have the same line.  Small play for me, but I am going to roll with you here. 

 
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Posted: #45
BYU QB OUT!!
 
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Posted: #46

Well I am on the same page as goscots - I actually look at the biggest lines moves as the game I wanna play and then I do my analysis and will select based on the line move - so far I am up quite a bit this year.

Also there is no average Joe betting money on Monday shooting the line 2 pts - they are sharps for a reason

 

BOL everyone

 

 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by vxkens:

Nevada's first road game of the year and in a huge letdown spot at a tough place to play.  Players doused the coach with Gatorade after last week's win.  Will they take care of business this week?  Nevada has a rep for choking opportunities away.  They are on the cusp of their first top 25 ranking since the 1940's, and I'll bet every one of those players and coaches knows it.

Got to think Vegas knows something here.  Nev likely overvalued after beating a poor Cal team which might finish with a losing record.  BYU undervalued after two embarrassing road losses.  Be careful.


Totally!!
 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by C-C:

one point (BYU is awful this year)

i dont care if its grass or turf, home or away.

Nevada will come to play, there offense is to much for BYU.

the line will be around a TD by game time, then you can bet on BYU and still loose.

BYU will struggle all year,

 



Agreed CC.  I've watched all 3 BYU games this year.   The defense is slow, looks slow.    Air Force juked them all day.  FSU played like shit and still covered by 17 points.  

Nevada will put up 35+ points on this defense.  If you think BYU will score at will with the freshman QB, then take it.  I just don't see it.  

Let down spot or not, this looks like a bad matchup for BYU defense.  BYU D may only slow down Wyoming, Colo St,  and UNLV this year.
 
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Posted: #49
Interesting trends:


Nevada 1-5 before UNLV ( Guess who they play next week )


BYU 6-0 ad dogs off Back to Back Straight up losses 
 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by Kraze:

Interesting trends:


Nevada 1-5 before UNLV ( Guess who they play next week )


BYU 6-0 ad dogs off Back to Back Straight up losses 


Interesting trend and stats
Thanks for sharing.


The first and greatest victory is to conquer self
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