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N.Illinois 10-0 only -2 to Toledo.....LOL

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Posted: #26
-2 Enticing you trap theorists......NI -2
 
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Posted: #27
Normally there is an extra advantage given to home teams on weekday games and I think Vegas has taken this into account. Toledo hasn't lost at home this year and they will score a bunch of points against NIU. I'm guessing the public will be piling on the ranked team on game day and the line will then go up to that key number -3. I like NIU under 3 and I'm also going to go small on a parlay NIU-2.5 and the over. Looks like a shootout to me and Lynch is not only the best player on the field he is very clutch. If Toledo gets up early Lynch is like a waitress with a bad memory, he just keeps coming back.
 
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Posted: #28
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by slick15:

Sometimes you can just look at a line and scratch your head and say this line is off.

Like Miami only -3.5 to Duke

Or  Stanford only -3.5 to USC.

No way should N.Illinois be laying less then a FG in this game...What a joke....What a $ucker Bet....Public on N.I. 77%

Give me Toledo +2 for pretty big money.

Another head scratcher is Duke only -4.5 to this bad Wake team.

Huge letdown for Duke and Vegas must know it by making this line only 4.5.....Give me Wake +4.5

Kansas St giving Oklahoma 3.5 pts. strange line.....I`ll lay the points with Kansas St.


It's nothing new for a line or two each week to make you scratch your head, but it's important to remember this...

If the line seems "off," you are missing something.  It may be a small detail, it may be a huge one, but the bottom line is you're missing something.

For instance, maybe you're dismissing the Blue Devils because "it's Duke football."  Truth is, they're a solid team, well-coached, with better athletes than they've ever had.

To most who are familiar with them, the line versus Miami was not fishy.

Now because of what Duke did to a reeling Miami team this past weekend, you're giving them too much credit.  Back down to earth in a rivalry game, against a respectable Wake Forest team, they're barely favored.  Nothing fishy about this line either if you know your stuff.

Agree to disagree, but I've seen much more fishy lines than any of the ones you've pointed out on this week's card.

Good luck with whatever you choose.


 
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Posted: #30
Line looks right to me.  NIU vs Ball State was a really close game, and could have gone either way until late in the game when NIU punched one in, and then got a pick 6 and that game was at NIU.

I wouldn't get too hung up on rankings or records here, when you consider who they've beaten.  The MAC is full of really below average teams.  NIU hasn't really beaten anyone that great this.  The win vs Iowa in week 1 (in Chicago) was by far their best win.  I mean their game vs Idaho was close the whole way out, and Idaho is arguably one of the worst FBS schools around.  Ball State was their best MAC win, but wins vs UMASS, EMU, CMU, Akron, Kent, Purdue, Eastern Ill are all bad teams.  Very bad in most cases.  LOL, Eastern Illinois might be the best win out of all of them, and they are a FCS school.  

Of course, Toledo's wins aren't any more impressive.  But as it's been stated, they are 6-0 at home.


I think this game is a toss-up.  Jordan Lynch is a playmaker, and will probably be the best player on the field.  In a toss up game, I would generally want that player on my side.  However, it's the MAC, and the MAC is bad, and I just don't trust taking a road favorite in this spot.  So will probably be a no play for me.  We'll see about the total when it comes out.   Been around 69 the last two years, one of which that went way over, and last year stayed under by 2 scores.

bk
 
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Posted: #31
+11.5 n ill looks very tasty in teaser play
 
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Posted: #32
Didnt toledo really struggle against navy

anything under 70 and I will hammer hard
 
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Posted: #33
BK, that game against iowa was in iowa city.  iowa had all offseason to think about their shiity year last year and they were ready for NIU and NIU still pulled out the W. 

 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by abizzo24:

BK, that game against iowa was in iowa city.  iowa had all offseason to think about their shiity year last year and they were ready for NIU and NIU still pulled out the W. 


My mistake, you are correct. Two years ago (Or more?)they played in Chicago, and I done got confused. That is a decent win, and I said as much.

Pix, are you meaning you are going to hammer the over if the total is at 70 or lower?  

Didn't see the Toledo-Navy game, so not sure if Toledo struggled, but they did win in OT.  Careful on using that score to validate an over play here, as 27 points (of 89) were scored in OT.

I do think that Toledo-NIU can reach 70 for sure, and that's probably where it will come out.
 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by nnutshelll:

Niu will finally get L #1


Now there`s a sharp dude

I like sharp minds
 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by lordzud:

If Toledo gets up early Lynch is like a waitress with a bad memory, he just keeps coming back.

Too funny!
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by uclalumnus:


Too funny!


congrats on your win friday nite. it sure is nice when the opposing QB goes down. 

 
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Posted: #38
toledo may be 6-0 at home but what matters the most is if they cover all 6 of them games.  I think not. 

NIU is a cover machine when they are away.  They are 5-1. 

I have been milking them for weeks and only lost just that 1 so even if I lose this one, I'm still up. 

If NIU loses, I'm hammer harder on Ohio laying 4.5

I have a better read on ohio.  kent state 1-5 away?  They should be dogs by at least 7 points to make me jumpy. 

Good luck guys and ride ohio with me.  I'll sprinkle small on NIU just to get OPM (other people's money) and going all in with that on ohio. 
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Posted: #39
toledo all day
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by nfl_brosuf:

toledo may be 6-0 at home but what matters the most is if they cover all 6 of them games.  I think not. 

NIU is a cover machine when they are away.  They are 5-1. 

I have been milking them for weeks and only lost just that 1 so even if I lose this one, I'm still up. 

If NIU loses, I'm hammer harder on Ohio laying 4.5

I have a better read on ohio.  kent state 1-5 away?  They should be dogs by at least 7 points to make me jumpy. 

Good luck guys and ride ohio with me.  I'll sprinkle small on NIU just to get OPM (other people's money) and going all in with that on ohio. 

I promise you if they win this game, they will cover.  
 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by nfl_brosuf:

 
If NIU loses, I'm hammer harder on Ohio laying 4.5

I have a better read on ohio.  kent state 1-5 away?  They should be dogs by at least 7 points to make me jumpy. 

Good luck guys and ride ohio with me.  I'll sprinkle small on NIU just to get OPM (other people's money) and going all in with that on ohio. 

Ohio scares me because I don't Tettleton is very good.  But you right, Kent is bad, especially on the road.  
 
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Posted: #42
IndyHoosier

One of the top posts of the yr. well said.
 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by MYSTICRICH:

I don't see anything fishy about this  line Toledo is 6-0 at home and has lost by 1 and 3 points at home vs N I 

But ill put my money on Jordan Lynch over T Owens Lynch is a winner , Owens comes up soft in big games  watch .


 

My exact thoughts.  Lynch & Co are on a mission.  A lot of people on here where high on Ball St.  Toledo plays good at home, but sorry not this Wednesday.

No trap or head scratcher here.  no need to over think this one.  If you've watched NIU this yr they're on a mission,  BCS bowl.  they will win out except when they get to the Bowl game.

 
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Posted: #44
Don't think Toledo is that good..The Bulls fell asleep for the whole 1st half last week & then ripped of 41 2nd half points with 27 in the 4th...Give Lynch the chance & he'll tear a strip into the Toledo D..Lynch & N ILL go undefeated & hopefully get that big bowl game again...


 
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Posted: #45
If you really think rankings and record should be the primary factor in determining point spreads you are in the wrong business...should be a good game
 
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Posted: #46
Interesting side note, if NIU goes undefeated the conference makes big money and an increase in status because of the bowl NIU plays in. A funny thing happened the last time this situation occurred. Kent St played NIU last year for the conference championship, Kent ST was ranked 4 spots higher in the polls and if they won they were far more likely to place in a BCS bowl than NIU. NIU did play in a BCS bowl but if you remember it required a number of teams to lose the last week of the season. Guess how many penalties were called against the teams? 0 on Kent ST and 6 on NIU in a double overtime game that NIU lost. How many teams do you think play a game plus two overtimes and don't get called for one penalty? While you watch this game see if the refs keep their flags in their pockets and help out NIU this year like they did Kent ST last year.
 
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Posted: #47
zud, did you watch the NIU / Kent game?  did you see any obvious penalties that were not called?

 
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Posted: #48

MACtion

 

BTW - NIU called for ZERO penalties last wk vs Ball St

 
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Posted: #49
Yes I did and I take pride in remaining objective. The Kent St offensive line knew they could hold pass rushers and the Kent ST  corners knew they could hold the wide receivers. You see in game adjustments to how the game is being called and Kent ST knew they could get away with holds that they couldn't get away with in other games. I was one of those people who didn't believe there was much shady stuff going on and besides college basketball I still don't. But this game made me a believer that the refs in some instances are "company men" meaning they know who pays them and what result will make their bosses more money.
 
 
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Posted: #50
N Ill still (inexplicably) chasing Fresno State as well.  They had their slip up potential moment last week.

Toledo line short because they are tough at home.

GL 
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