equiv. juice means sports books takes right ratio of money on ML fave and underdog).. and then adjusts ML "equally" between F,U until sport book's ROI = 4.5% based on the -110 juice........ adjusting ML "equally" requires two things: 1) use reciprocal 2) multiple reciprocal by same factor for F,U.
i think there are SOME BIG PROBLEMS with this... i am seeing this as i go along in my calculations.
the problem is that if you have 90% and 10% (F,U) true odds and betting ratio....if you multiple each by 1.1 (huge juice, not 10% juice), then F,U = 99%, 11%)....... now favorite bettor instead of laying $90 to win $10 is now laying $99 to win $1. he now has -90% ROI.... so underdog has to take way more of the juice. kills you 9 or 10 to 1 payout. with 107 juice, the payout goes from 9 to 8.5 or something like that. no big deal
equiv. juice means sports books takes right ratio of money on ML fave and underdog).. and then adjusts ML "equally" between F,U until sport book's ROI = 4.5% based on the -110 juice........ adjusting ML "equally" requires two things: 1) use reciprocal 2) multiple reciprocal by same factor for F,U.
i think there are SOME BIG PROBLEMS with this... i am seeing this as i go along in my calculations.
the problem is that if you have 90% and 10% (F,U) true odds and betting ratio....if you multiple each by 1.1 (huge juice, not 10% juice), then F,U = 99%, 11%)....... now favorite bettor instead of laying $90 to win $10 is now laying $99 to win $1. he now has -90% ROI.... so underdog has to take way more of the juice. kills you 9 or 10 to 1 payout. with 107 juice, the payout goes from 9 to 8.5 or something like that. no big deal
Is Indiana playing for the Title?! Who tf cares what he did there. If you are using his time at Indiana to cap this game, god save your bank account. Indiana football has and always will be trash.
Is Indiana playing for the Title?! Who tf cares what he did there. If you are using his time at Indiana to cap this game, god save your bank account. Indiana football has and always will be trash.
Huskies are 10-0 SU vs ranked opponents the last 2 years......... Lucky that UCLA wasn't ranked last year when they beat Washington as that would change the ATS dynamics. and the fairly close final score flattered the Huskies.
7-2-1 vs. the spread. i think it needed to be corrected to 8-1-1 ATS due to spread movement but it turned out i just confused years so it was the closing line. and they are 7-2-1 vs ranked team
they've covered those 7 games by 60 points aggregate and missed by 4... covering at 75% rate with 8.5 point clearance. missing at 35% vs. 2 point average miss
before anyone thinks i'm completely home-biased, i remember telling an uber-hot football fanatic in 2016 at my gym that UW had "ZERO CHANCE" against Alabama in the playoff game that night.
Huskies are 10-0 SU vs ranked opponents the last 2 years......... Lucky that UCLA wasn't ranked last year when they beat Washington as that would change the ATS dynamics. and the fairly close final score flattered the Huskies.
7-2-1 vs. the spread. i think it needed to be corrected to 8-1-1 ATS due to spread movement but it turned out i just confused years so it was the closing line. and they are 7-2-1 vs ranked team
they've covered those 7 games by 60 points aggregate and missed by 4... covering at 75% rate with 8.5 point clearance. missing at 35% vs. 2 point average miss
before anyone thinks i'm completely home-biased, i remember telling an uber-hot football fanatic in 2016 at my gym that UW had "ZERO CHANCE" against Alabama in the playoff game that night.
Is Indiana playing for the Title?! Who tf cares what he did there. If you are using his time at Indiana to cap this game, god save your bank account. Indiana football has and always will be trash.
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FFS, Penix beat UM 38-21 3 years ago...... not 12 years ago.
THE WHOLE F POINT IS THAT "YES, INDIANA HAS ALWAYS BEEN TRASH BUT THEY DESTROYED UM 3 YEARS AGO WITH PENIX AT QB"..... Penix did probably 50 points better than the average result for Indiana vs. Michigan......
"but how is he ever going to be able to deal with the UM defense?". 1) he already did, 2) at sad-sack Indiana,3) with Aiden Hutchison at DE..... read that more than once
"handicapping using indiana vs michigan".... let's see. he beat UM by 17 with a vastly inferior supporting cast. suggests he might win by 45 points this time
Is Indiana playing for the Title?! Who tf cares what he did there. If you are using his time at Indiana to cap this game, god save your bank account. Indiana football has and always will be trash.
\
FFS, Penix beat UM 38-21 3 years ago...... not 12 years ago.
THE WHOLE F POINT IS THAT "YES, INDIANA HAS ALWAYS BEEN TRASH BUT THEY DESTROYED UM 3 YEARS AGO WITH PENIX AT QB"..... Penix did probably 50 points better than the average result for Indiana vs. Michigan......
"but how is he ever going to be able to deal with the UM defense?". 1) he already did, 2) at sad-sack Indiana,3) with Aiden Hutchison at DE..... read that more than once
"handicapping using indiana vs michigan".... let's see. he beat UM by 17 with a vastly inferior supporting cast. suggests he might win by 45 points this time
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