One time you can bet the big favorite and not be worried is tonight...

Yesterday went a little bit long, going to keep today a little bit shorter for those of you who don’t have tons of time to be reading all of this.

This line opened up at -11 at nearly every location. I opened up with TCU -8.5 as I was sure the number was going to move down. Sure enough, it hit 8.5 at numerous locations last night and currently sits at 9 offshore and 8.5 at all my locations. I had to move the line up to 9 earlier in the week because many people were hitting TCU as the bargain was out there in a big way.

A ton of people are over estimating the public money on this game. Almost every website on the internet has a conflicting report. If you want to know the truth about these websites and their consensus numbers, look back in my previous write-ups.

The truth is, the consensus numbers in this game are no where near what is posted online. This game had considerable LAT money early on driving the line down, but most of that has been bought back. There is just over $1.75 on TCU per $1 of LAT tonight at my 12 locations . Depending on where the line is, anywhere from 11 to 8, I estimate that even LAT could have more money on them then the Horned Frogs do.

This is a game where the consensus simply does not matter. The matchups determine the game, and they all sway heavily to TCU’s favor.

Anytime you are betting a big favorite in bowl season, you can be confident when they have two things. Strong offensive and defensive lines, and the ability to put up points. TCU is not a team that will get the cover tonight by slowing the other team down. They are a team that will get the cover going away. Rather than saying, can TCU do enough to get the cover, you can say will Louisiana Tech do enough to make this a game. I believe the answer is no.

TCU has a significant advantage at QB, RB, Oline, Dline, LB and through coaching. TCU is phenomenal on third down which is a must have when laying this many points. They ranked second in the nation only behind GT on third down efficiency. LAT, ranked 97^th. The Bulldogs will not be able to keep up at the pace TCU will be hanging points on the board. This is the one time in bowl season you can be comfortable laying this many points. Right team, right match-up right scenario.

Once again I will not be betting on the game, I have only played three games in the past 30 days, but if you are I would be comfortable that TCU wins by double digits and covers the 9 point spread.

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=101214924

You only played 3 games in 30 years?

So what is your prediction bet in 2021 bowl game that you will be betting on?

3 in the last 30 days. I try play about 5-6 a month on average for $800-$1400 a game and make $3000-4000 profit. Make a solid stress free living. Started blogging and posting on Covers this season, sorry if I offended you by not playing this game.

Love your write up- was only kidding sir,,! I totally agreed...I just like the action so I can watch the game..! Thank you for your insight and time. Happy New Year Sir..!!

Great write up. 

My initial lean on this game was LATech, simply because of what they have been doing in their last 7 games.  But taking a closer look...the best team they have played is a 6-4 Nevada team?  I think they are way overvalued and they let up a lot of rushing yards.  TCU is very balanced and can come at you with 3 different running backs. Also,  Pachall is very effecient at 67.8% completion rate, 8.6/attempt and a healthy 24-6 TD/INT ratio.  TCU has the better coaching staff.  Patterson will have his boys focused on the task at hand and with no worries of a small bowl let down.  TCU fans travel and support their team.  There will be a big disatvantage as far as fan support in this game.  LATech will be overmatched in this game.  The balanced attack and better OL on offense will have TCU scoring at least 35.  LATech will be around 20. 

TCU 35- LATech 20

vegasjack2; you should be playing this game....I think you're on one

vj2 - Thanks for the info.

 

Here's something that I posted in another thread.Would like your input whether you agree or not. 

 

 

 

 

 

Posted: 12/21/2011 12:32:52 PM

TCU is highly motivated in this game. It's not about winning The Poinsettia Bowl but rather starting next year with the highest ranking possible heading into their debut season in the Big 12.Even though TCU will be in a BCS conference,Gary Patterson knows that having a high preseason ranking is vital to a national championship run. He has stated such and believe me the 'Frogs will be motivated to serve notice that they will be a force to be reckoned with next season. 

In addition,TCU is entering their seventh straight Bowl game and their thirteenth in the last fourteen years under Patterson.Not only does TCU know how to prepare for Bowl games but a case could easily be made that TCU has the advantage on both sides of the ball,special teams,and coaching.Not to mention that there has to be a certain degree of distraction as it is strongly been rumored that Sonny Dykes will be returning to his home state of Texas as the next coach at The University of Houston.

 I'm a "dog" bettor by nature (especially Bowl games), but there is NO way (regardless of ANY line movement),that I would feel comfortable going against the 'Frogs tonight.